Cats have lived alongside people for more than ten thousand years. A comfortable society for cats is a comfortable society for human beings.

This, they say, is the age of cats. Each year, the number of pet cats in Japan increases and is now approaching 10 million. On the other hand, the number of pets dogs has dropped from a one-time peak of over 13 million to less than 10 million.*

As Yamane Akihiro, an assistant professor of animal ecology at Seinan Gakuin University explains:

“I think that behind this affection for cats is the way that present-day Japanese society makes people feel trapped. People are controlled by a results-driven system, and companies are restructured. People can’t live their lives freely and as they wish. Perhaps that is why they are so attracted to free-living cats.”

Cats are attractive for their suppleness, beauty and distinctive behavior, side-products of their nature as hunters, able to strike down their prey with a single blow.

“Their large beautiful eyes evolved as a result of them being nocturnal hunters,” says Yamane. “Their eyeballs became as large as possible in order to gather in light during the dark night. They groom themselves to remove unwanted scent so that prey will not notice their presence.”

The fickle and capricious personality of the cat, so different from the loyal and patient dog, is also said to come from its hunting behavior.

“Apart from the lion, all members of the cat family hunt alone,” says Yamane. “They creep up on prey, lie in wait, then when prey comes close enough, they finish it off at a stroke. Much of their muscle is white (fast twitch) for short distances; it can provide explosive instantaneous force, but has no endurance. When a cat’s prey runs away, it soon gives up. This is the physiological reason why cats seem capricious and fickle.”

The dog family on the other hand has lots of red muscle, well suited to running continually over long periods, while they patiently hunt their prey in packs.

​

Commentary: YAMANE Akihiro, Associate Professor, Seinan Gakuin University Born 1966 in Hyogo Prefecture. Graduated from the Kyushu University Faculty of Science. Gained a Doctor of Science. Specializations are animal ecology and population genetics. Took up his current post after working at the National Institute for Environmental Studies, the Kyoto University Primate Research Institute, and as curator of the Kitakyushu Museum of Natural History & Human History. His publications include Cat Secrets.

Over ten thousand years living alongside people

Modern cats were domesticated by humans from African wildcats. This happened ten thousand years ago in the grain producing regions of Mesopotamia (in modern-day Iraq).

“African wildcats entered human society and drove out rats that had come for the grain in human settlements. They came by themselves to live besides humans.

The domestication of cats was completed in ancient Egypt. There, humans raised up and worshiped the cat goddess, Bastet.

By the ancient Roman period some two thousand years ago, cats were commonplace. It was around this time too that cats were brought to East India and China.

Cats were thought to have entered Japan from China together with Buddhist texts sometime between the Nara period (710–794 CE) and the start of the Heian period (794–1185). Yet, bones that appear to be from cats have been found at the Karakami archaeological site in Ikishima, Nagasaki Prefecture, which is from the Yayoi period (300 BCE–300 CE); so there were cats in Japan approximately 2,100 year ago.

Today, however, the popularity of cats has led to problems with urine and droppings from strays, and whether or not to deal with them through euthanasia. Yamane explains:

“Approximately 100,000 stray cats are exterminated in Japan each year, and the main reason for that is excessive feeding of stray cats. When cats have plenty of food they go into heat numerous times during the year. That leads to the tragedy of cats having to be exterminated.”

One initiative to try and avoid this tragedy taking place in various locations in Japan is so-called “community cats”: cats that are looked after by the community. Locals also see to neutering the cats, organizing their food and water, and disposing of droppings and urine.

Yamane has been researching the ecology of stray cats in Ainoshima, an island in the Genkai Sea. He says that the relationship between the cats and locals offers a suggestion as to how humans and cats can live together.

“Three hundred fishermen and one hundred stray cats live together on Ainoshima. The cats eat fish leftovers thrown away by the islanders, and their population is limited by that food supply. The cats breed once a year. Many of the kittens die, but that is down to nature, and the islanders don’t get involved in whether the cats live or die. The cats on this island lead relaxed lives of little stress.”

“It is 10,000 years since cats first appeared, and cats are essentially unchanged; it is humans that have changed. A society that is comfortable for cats is one that is also comfortable for humans.”

* Japan Pet Food Association data (2015)

Translated from “Neko to Nihonjin (Cats and Japanese People),” SERAI, March 2017, pp.30-31. (Courtesy of Serai, Shogakukan Inc.) [March 2017]

New Real Estate Loans Are Exceeding Those During the Bubble Economy, Reaching New Record Highs

Nozawa Chie, Professor, Faculty of Science and Engineering Toyo University

As an city planning researcher hoping to share with as many people as possible the future risk of sustained uncontrolled housing construction in spite of the realities of the decreasing population and rapid growth in the number of vacant houses, the author published a book titled Oiru Ie Kuzureru Machi: Jutaku Kajo Shakai-no Matsuro (Aging Houses and Deteriorating Cities: the fate of a Society with Excessive Residential Supply) as part of Kodansha Ltd.’s Gendai Shinsho series of pocket-size paperbacks in November 2016. In February 2017, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released data in a timely manner that supported my perspective on the problem that led to the publication of this book.

According to the data published by the BOJ, new real estate loans extended by financial institutions in 2016 (Figure 1) reached 12.3 trillion yen, the highest level since 1977, when statistics became available for confirmation. For reference, the largest sum of new loans extended during the bubble economy was 10.4 trillion yen in 1989. The 2017 total means that the real estate loans supplied by banks were 2 trillion yen larger than the amount during the bubble economy. In addition, total new lending (for repayment in installments), including funds for individual residential purchases, began to rise sharply around 2014. Such loans rose to 16.7 trillion yen in 2016, showing momentum to reach the highest-ever level of 17 trillion yen, posted in 2005.

It can be mentioned that the urban development boom triggered by the decision to hold the Olympic Games in Tokyo in 2020, activated investments in real estate investment trusts (REITs), rock-bottom interest rates and the construction boom for houses, such as high-rise condominiums and rented apartments, as a way to deal with the inheritance tax, which were factors in the background of these trends. Certainly, the construction boom for high-rise condominiums is continuing in urban areas. In suburban districts and provincial cities, residential districts for detached houses under development and rented apartments under construction can also often be found, which raises speculation about whether demand actually exists in those areas.

However, the thoughtless increase in the volume of housing may create a fall in the asset value of currently existing houses and their market rents, as well as a decline in their market liquidity as secondhand homes. In particular, the trend of the rapid increase in new loans extended as funds for residential purchases worries the author about the possibility that a situation similar to the Lehman collapse could arise in Japan in cases where an oversupply of housing not in agreement with actual demand increases.

Peaking of the Number of Households and the Arrival of the Era of Massive Inheritance

Meanwhile, the total number of houses was 60,630,000, 16% larger than the total number of households in fiscal 2013, at 52,450,000. In terms of number, the volume of housing is already sufficient. Furthermore, the number of vacant houses is continuing to grow. According to the Housing and Land Survey, about 8,200,000 vacant houses existed nationwide in 2013 (with the vacancy rate at 13.5%).

In addition to the population, the number of households is forecasted to start falling in Japan in the near future (Figure 2). The decline is estimated to begin nationwide in 2019 and around 2025 in metropolitan areas like Tokyo and Aichi Prefecture. In an additional blow, the baby-boomer generation occupying 5% of the population will be over 75 years old, and the ratio of late elderly population will expand to nearly 20% with no hesitation around 2025, which means the arrival of the era of massive inheritance, in which the inheritance of the parents’ home occurs simultaneously for baby boomers and their children. Many children do not take over their parents’ home, even if they inherit it, because they already have a house of their own in this age of advanced family nuclearization. Because of this, there are massive houses ready to lose occupants nationwide.

Housing construction certainly produces short-term economic effects. The problem is that even in areas where the new housing is not fully equipped as a place of residence such as roads, elementary schools, or parks, it still continues to expand the total amount of houses. We cannot take a house to a new location or throw it away as we can with consumer electronics and automobiles when they become unnecessary. A house is something that will remain at a particular site, in a particular community for years to come. In other words, building a house means that investments in public utilities, such as the establishment of residential foundations necessary for living, maintenance and management, garbage collection and disaster prevention measures, will become permanently necessary.

However, the working-age population that supports the tax revenue is predicted to shrink in all cities across Japan from this point on. Under these conditions, little reserve remains for new public investments because all Japanese cities are burdened by the increasing cost of welfare for the elderly, massive vacant houses and the aging public facilities and infrastructure that must be renewed.

In short, we have reached a stage where we should direct our attention to the fact that building or purchasing a new house may affect the future of a particular city in many ways in the long term.

Horror of a Society with Excessive Residential Supply that Cannot Be Ended or Stopped

Naming this situation “a society with excessive residential supply,” the author defines it as a society that continues to build massive houses, overlooking the serious effects on future generations and spreading places of residence in a manner similar to slash-and-burn farming (a farming method that burns forests at harvest-time and repeats cultivation haphazardly), despite the number of houses already in existence and the continuous increase in the number of vacant houses.

However, the author does not want readers to misunderstand the following point. The act of constructing houses or purchasing them is not bad in and of itself, even though we are living in a society with surplus houses. People who want to buy new houses, move or rebuild their old houses will continue to need new houses. Constructing new houses in cities that will remain favorable places to live in the future in accordance with current needs and actual demand is an important pillar not only for people who wish to buy homes, but also for residential policies, city planning and housing and construction industries in the private sector.

The problem lies in the point that members of the housing and construction industry and local governments are in a situation where they cannot end or stop building houses, placing enormous future risks on the shoulders of the owners of individual homes. They present no effective solution to the problems of vacant houses and the terminal stage of aging homes, giving top priority to short-term economic measures and market logistics, even though they must be sufficiently aware of such problems.

Because of this, the author would like to use the following section to describe the reasons why the promotion of such a society with excessive residential supply will not stop. In other words, the author will address the structural problems produced by the industry, the government and the private sector, with a focus on condominiums.

Housing, Construction and Financial Industries Realizing Profits by Continuing to Build Houses

Securing profits is difficult for members of the housing and construction industries unless they continue to build houses because they generally repeat to use the profits gained from building houses to next developments. In other words, they engage in their businesses in a way similar to tuna that dies when it stops swimming. This can be cited as the biggest cause of the endless promotion of a society with excessive residential supply.

Housing and construction companies are continuing to build condominiums, instead of rented apartments, because condominiums enable them to easily secure commercial viability with their initial investments, such as land acquisition and construction expenses, collected over a short period. Business risks involved in condominium construction are low because maintenance and management responsibilities are passed on to the purchasers after the properties are handed over to them. In other words, housing and construction companies have no job to perform after sales are concluded. In most cases, they bear no responsibility or future risk for condominiums following their construction or for the cities where they are located. In addition, banks and other members of the financial industry that are realizing profits by financing housing and real estate acquisitions are stimulating the trend of building houses one after another.

Politics and policies often reflect the opinions of the major housing, construction and financial companies that secure profits by building houses. For that reason, we can say that Japan has not freed itself from the growth model for developing countries in which houses are built to generate economic effects.

Meanwhile, in many cases the people that are buying homes consider houses to be an asset. They tend to think that buying a house with a housing loan that has a rock-bottom interest rate has many advantages, such as a tax deduction for housing loans and other types of preferential treatment, compared to paying a large amount of rent for a rental home every month. In addition to a new house, a secondhand home is another option when buying a house. In particular, secondhand condominiums have become an attractive option in recent years with the steep rise in the price of their newly built counterparts due to rising construction expenses. However, there is a general sense of anxiety about the quality of secondhand homes. There are also transaction risks, because real estate agencies do not offer sufficient information to ensure their quality. For those reasons, the housing market has been unable to free itself from reliance on newly-built houses. As a result, many people decide to buy newly-built homes, under the additional effects of real estate agencies’ strategies for shaping a positive image through advertisements and skillful sales pitches.

Mechanism behind Large Numbers of Closely Built High-Rise Condominiums

The structural problems stated above remain for the companies involved in housing and construction. However, we can also cite (excessive) relaxation policies for matters such as the city planning regulations adopted by central and local governments as a cause for developments, such as the continued emergence of high-rise condominiums. Local governments relaxing city planning regulations too flexibly out of a desire to increase the local population have become apparent to the author throughout the shift toward fewer city planning regulations and decentralization that began around 2000.

Systems based on the City Planning Act support the construction of high-rise condominiums, such as those greater than 100 meters tall. In addition to those systems, others exist based on the Building Standards Act, such as one that permits the relaxation of the floor area ratio. Other regulations exist site by site when certain requirements, including the provision of a publicly accessible open space, are fulfilled and the approval of a local government is present. Systems for relaxing regulations, such as those on the floor area ratio, have come to exist in a large number indeed.

To cite one example, the Tokyo Bay area has transformed itself into a district overflowing with high-rise condominiums. The mechanism behind its transformation was the special and substantial relaxation of city planning regulations in the district by the central and metropolitan governments for promoting urban residences and redeveloping the urban area in exchange for public contributions, including the supply of open spaces, such as plazas and walkways at the expense of developers. The implication behind the mechanism was to offer public assistance in redevelopment projects in urban areas where the promotion of businesses is difficult and to ensure their smooth advancement by improving profitability with a relaxed floor area ratio and other regulations for expanding sellable and rentable floor areas.

However, there are cases in which created public open spaces have designs that produce an exclusive atmosphere and make passersby other than high-rise condominium residents reluctant to enter due to the masterful arrangement of large plants. There are cases such as these where development is difficult to judge as a useful bargaining tool for a substantial floor area ratio increase. There are other cases in which subsidies totaling billions of yen are disbursed to a single district in an urban redevelopment project whose main purpose seems to be the construction of high-rise condominiums.

There have been cases in recent years where high-rise condominiums are built in various locations in the small bayside districts of Tokyo. Those condominium towers produce an overcrowded residential environment that creates a sense of oppression. The author wonders if we can pass those areas down to the next generation as attractive residential districts without misgivings. Areas that raise such questions have emerged in Tokyo.

Policies of Relax Regulation with No Clear Goal

Existing city planning and housing policies are not controlling the rapid rise in the number of residential units supplied by high-rise condominiums on the whole, which is another example of a society with excessive residential supply being endlessly promoted.

One project for redeveloping an urban area involving the construction of three high-rise condominiums scheduled in a certain bayside area where warehouses and similar facilities stand side by side is a case in point. In this district, the floor area ratio was raised from about 400% to the maximum level of 1,070% through the substantial relaxation of one regulation. About 3,000 new houses are scheduled to be supplied in this district based on the revised ratio. As this case suggests, the lack of systems for carefully examining the appropriateness of a plan to build 3,000 houses in this district and the effects the growing volume of overall housing produces on the area, and for adjusting the plan based on city planning and housing policies, is continuing to engender a society with excessive residential supply.

The introduction of private-sector financial resources and business knowhow, and the supply of houses that allow many people to live near their respective workplaces are certainly important pillars for housing policies and city planning. Such initiatives must have a reason for existing as economic measures after the burst of the economic bubble and the Lehman collapse. In the real estate market there was also the situation where only high-rise condominiums were being supplied because business risks were high for offices and commercial facilities, which were in low demand in those days.

The biggest problem, however, is the government’s continued inability to end or stop their policies of regulation relaxation with no clear goal or opportunity for halting them.

In the meantime, according to market trend data published by the Real Estate Information Network for East Japan, the secondhand condominiums in stock numbered 25,395 in metropolitan Tokyo as of September 2016, increasing for 17 consecutive months. The secondhand market condominium is based on supply and demand. For that reason, we cannot deny the possibility that property prices could move in the downward direction over the long term under the condition of overflowing stock volume, although such a shift will depend on diverse factors, including property locations.

Transformation of Regulation Relaxation into a Black Box

In Tokyo, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and ward offices approve the relaxation of regulations, such as an increase in the floor area ratio, based on the City Planning Act. Those local governments must have the urban plans discussed by a council on urban planning consisting of metropolitan and ward assembly members, academics and others before reaching a decision. However, draft plans seldom undergo any significant change at the discussion stage, even if council members state their opinions, because they are submitted to the council on urban planning after their practical fixation through advance consultations between the local government officials in charge and developers. For that reason, concrete grounds, such as the method used or calculating a higher floor area ratio for public contribution, and the process for their discussion tends to become a black box, even though certain policies and criteria are expressly stated regarding conditions for relaxing city planning regulations, because the on-site confirmation of conditions in the surrounding areas becomes necessary for the examination of development projects in which those conditions differ.

In that case, it might seem smart to clarify the criteria in advance with steps, such as the numerical expression of those grounds. However, there is a problem with such an idea. The clearer such criteria are expressed in the form of numerical values and others, the more local governments must approve projects that satisfy the criteria, but obviously do not contribute to public interest in the concerned areas. We should improve the present situation where no formal system exists for information disclosure and advance consultation at key points from the early stage of development projects if the floor area ratio and other regulations are especially relaxed in the concerned areas.

Changing a Society with Excessive Residential Supply

The first thing to do to change Japan from a society with excessive residential supply is to stop thoughtless increases in the total housing volume and residential areas through city planning and housing policies.

Specifically, we must start to control the excessive regulation relaxation practiced up until now, by taking new steps, including total volume control on the number of new houses produced under the relaxed regulations.

We can also consider limiting the easing of the floor area ratio and other requirements in cases where new public investments are obviously unnecessary and researching the effects that the number of houses to be built could have on elementary schools, other public facilities and the already established transportation infrastructure.

The second thing to do is to try to guide new housing construction to preferred sites and mature the market for secondhand homes. The author believes that there is a close relationship between housing site guidance with tax systems and financial institutions that hold the key to efforts to guide new housing locations to existing communities (particularly those that are hollowing out), established with public investments in the past, instead of areas lacking established foundations as residential districts, such as reclamation sites and farmland. Examples of their relationship include the establishment of the different levels of preferential tax treatment, various insurance policies related to housing and housing loans offered by private financial institutions applicable in cases where new houses are built in areas where city planning policies state they should be guided and in cases where they are constructed in other districts.

Moreover, developing new incentives and systems that cause house builders, developers, regional construction companies, real estate agents and other parties in the private sector to take active approaches as powerful players, in addition to organizations such as administrative agencies and NPOs, will be essential to restore and renew the current houses and communities in existence.

The third thing we should do is to remain one step ahead of future risks. That is a matter of course. Things like the latest kitchen models, an affordable price range and moneymaking schemes based on lax business profitability assessments capture our hearts when we buy a new house. We tend to neglect the long-term perspective of trying to grasp the future risks of the houses being considered for purchase and the areas where they are located when convincing pitches by salespeople are added.

Today, we are living in a society with excessive residential supply. Is the area where our house is located likely to maintain comfort in its own way without sharp deterioration? Is there a chance for a buyer or a tenant to appear in cases where a child inherits our house tries to sell or rent it? I think we should turn our attention to the future risks that lie ahead and asset values by asking ourselves such questions. I think that such individual efforts will trigger the transformation from a society with surplus houses.

Translated from “Tokushu ‘Akiya’ ga Tokyo wo mushibamu ― Toshikeikaku no kisei kanwa wo minaose: Sankanmin ga tsukuridashita ‘Jutaku kajo shakai’ no yugami (Special Feature ‘Vacant Houses are Undermining Tokyo’: Reconsider the Relaxation of City Planning Regulations ― Distortions in a “Society with Excessive Residential Supply” Created by the Industry, Government and Private Sector),” Chuokoron, April 2017, pp. 100-107. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [April 2017]

Sakai Kuniyoshi	Habu Yoshiharu

AI Cuts a Path for New Shogi Moves

Habu Yoshiharu: AI (artificial intelligence) has been a popular conversation topic over the last few years. I think the long-awaited appearance of AI in visible forms, such as humanoid robots and automated driving, has been a large turning point for this trend. AI has also achieved developments in the world of board games, including chess, shogi and go. Recently, the fields which implement AI have expanded. What was once a fantasy has begun to show potential for successful real world application. People are pinning their hope on such potential for AI. However, they also seem to fear the possibility that AI will surpass them, otherwise known as the singularity.

Sakai Kuniyoshi: I’m a scientist who specializes in the language function of the brain. Thinking about AI leads to thoughts about what humans are. In other words, I’m thinking a lot about AI and paying attention to it, because ideas about AI overlap with thoughts about brain functions in many ways. Let me discuss the singularity later in this conversation, because many people misunderstand it.

Habu: Matches between AI and professional shogi players have gained a lot of attention. Because of this, opportunities for me to take part in similar AI-related projects have increased tremendously in twelve months. They have been puzzling me. [Laughs] AI failed to take off initially, but that changed in 2011, when it defeated professional shogi player Yonenaga Kunio in the first Den-o Sen Match, which pitted a human player against AI. I think professional shogi players also began to consider applying AI research findings to their game after that match.

We take unnecessary steps in both shogi and everyday life when we feel that we are in danger because of our defensive instinct. That’s why professional shogi players repeatedly train to suppress such fear while developing their professional skills. In the meantime, AI sometimes presents new concepts and ideas that we are unable to develop because it lacks a defensive instinct or a sense of fear, which is why we can learn a lot from the records of shogi matches played by AI.

For example, in shogi there is a strategy called aiyagura. At one point, a computer software program discovered a strategy to beat it. Currently, there is no countermeasure for that strategy and as a result, very few professionals use aiyagura these days. A computer program could develop such a strategy because it thought in an inconsistent way. Humans think with continuity, moving one shogi piece when an opponent moves another way. But computer programs lack such consistent thinking. The computer used an unexpectedly simple solution.

Sakai: As you said, humans think of time chronologically. In shogi, positions change with each move on the board and each time we must rethink our strategy. I think that’s the charm of shogi.

AI has started to beat human players more frequently in shogi and go. But humans will truly lose to AI if they really give up as a result.

There were intellectuals who criticized the game of chess itself, saying chess was a low-level game when Garry Kasparov, the World Chess Champion at that time, lost a match against AI twenty years ago. We cannot justify their words, which are exactly the same as those in the “Fox and the Grapes,” one of Aesop’s fables. It is too superficial to discuss just a win or a loss in a match against AI without evaluating the substance of the game. Humans can learn from their mistakes.

What will happen if AI plays 100 matches against human players now, at this point where it has developed its ability and assumed greater prominence?

Habu: I wonder about that myself. After all, humans and computers conceive of time in different ways. Both humans and AI want to have as much time as possible, but shogi is played within a limited framework. In other words, players must maintain high quality judgments within a time-limit. I heard that AI shogi programmers order their programs to complete each match in one second in the learning stage. They require programs to undergo severe training that would exhaust human players immediately. I don’t think 100 matches between humans and AI is realistic for that reason.

You just mentioned chess. The current World Chess Champion is a 26-year-old Norwegian named Magnus Carlsen. Moves analyzed through quick calculation are apparent in the chess playing styles of young people today because computers already existed when they were born. However, Carlsen plays in the exact opposite style. He plays chess by thinking about how to leave as many possibilities as possible. His style appears unrefined on the surface. But I noticed that Carlson is also sampling human elements, using computer software programs to his advantage. I think shogi will also advance into a period in which players hone their skills by taking computers into consideration.

The idea that humans play back a game after each shogi match has been on my mind. By doing so, the two players review and reflect on advantageous and disadvantageous moves after the end of their match. That cannot be done with a software program. In other words, shogi attached importance to the examination of the process. From this point on, we will just grasp data. I wonder if that is really OK.

Sakai: That question is also related to education. Young people today may tend to find thinking tiresome. They try to find the answer to a question quickly, by searching online. People originally played shogi or engaged in studies because such processes were enjoyable, but now they try to gain results in the shortest possible time. I feel that studies lose their meaning when people do that.

There is a sense of regret in classrooms that schools have supported efficiency and competition. In the National Center Test for university applicants, we are also trying to emphasize the thinking process by incorporating questions requiring written answers, in addition to multiple-choice questions. I believe that this is important.

Will the Arrival of AI Change Civilization?

Habu: Looking back, AI experienced several periods of wax and wane over the last few decades. Researchers have told me that they want to move into a serious stage where they can obtain matching manpower and budgets. I’m hoping to witness the development of AI myself. What do you think about that, Mr. Sakai?

Sakai: People have been talking about the singularity in a way that provokes anxiety, saying things like, “AI will take jobs away from humans.” As a person involved in science, I’d like to point out that such fears are groundless. It has been predicted that AI will surpass human beings in about thirty years. But this “singularity 2045” argument has no scientific grounds whatsoever. To rephrase it more accurately, the singularity is the point at which humans give up. For example, we can refrain from abandoning hope, saying that we are still better than AI, even if AI has surpassed us in certain abilities. The singularity will never take place as long as we keep addressing challenges. We don’t really know what humans are in the first place. Trying to compare humans with AI under such conditions is in itself a meaningless way to hold a discussion.

Habu: I see. Human limitations are also limitations for AI.

Meanwhile, there is also a risk for humans. AI makes few mistakes because it is mechanical. Therefore, humans might leave all tasks to AI. Horrendous accidents can occur in such cases. Automated driving is the easiest example to imagine. Can AI really avoid a critical moment if an unanticipated event, such as an animal darting into the road while an AI-mounted car is in automated driving mode? I wonder about that, because the performance of AI is based on probability. AI just executes the actions it assumes to be correct, based on its study of many tests. In other words, AI cannot address cases that have not yet been tested.

Sakai: Faithfully following orders and not making mistakes are two different matters. We shouldn’t forget that AI is operating based on probability.

The shift in responsibility that occurs when humans rely on AI is an extremely serious problem. Let’s assume that a car in automated driving mode caused a traffic accident resulting in injury or death. I’m sure its owner will say he or she is blameless because the car was in automated driving mode and accuse the car. But who should the victim ask to take responsibility in cases where the automated driving program installed on the car is found to be error-free? The person who chose the automated driving mode may be questioned if it was an accident that a human driver could have avoided.

Humans may lose their ability for critical judgment if they rely too much on efficiency-based AI. It’s a strange phenomenon in which people use their brains to avoid using their brains as much as possible. AI will absolutely cause civilization to decline if it is used in such a way.

Strange Discussions about the Singularity

Habu: One of the AI research sites that I visited for a certain TV program was a company involved in military affairs. AI is already used in modern warfare. Humans are monitoring that AI because they don’t know if it will go out of control. I heard that many of those watchmen become neurotic. To start, battlefields are not ordinary places. I heard that such people become sick after continuously watching actions which humans cannot understand, but AI does based its own judgments. It is possible that AI used in warfare could cause a catastrophe. I think that we must examine the risk for the human abuse of AI. That is not a science fiction story where AI starts operating freely and attacks humans. It’s a matter of ethics on the human side. Google Inc., in the United States, set up an ethics division at its establishment. We can say that the company had great foresight.

Sakai: Such questions of ethics are also raised in discussions over the singularity. At the same time, the fear that AI may drive out humans precedes them. The issue is not limited to AI. Unfortunately, people who try to weaponize prominent products of science and technology appeared with such developments. Creating ethical regulations for AI and addressing all situations will remain important. However, the extreme argument that we should stop all AI studies because of this does not solve the problems.

Habu: I agree. Ray Kurzweil, a pioneer in the examination of various AI issues, including the singularity, advocates the Law of Accelerating Returns. The point of this Law is that studies in all fields reach a point of stagnation after advancing to a certain degree, but studies in other fields put windholes into the stagnant studies, causing society as a whole to move forward faster. I think peripheral studies will produce similar or equal results even if AI studies are suspended.

Sakai: Ridiculous arguments about the technological singularity include a forecast by Michael Osborne titled “The Future of Employment.” It is a list of jobs that will disappear or be eliminated in the future because of AI. Osborne made a serious mistake by underestimating the original human abilities which jobs included. For example, the credibility of the list is in question because it contains watchmaking and camera repair that is supposed to require high levels of experience and skills.

The competency required in the service industry includes a capacity for arranging work matters efficiently and showing consideration to customers. There is absolutely no basis for the assertion that AI can achieve such competency in the near future. Further, jobs performed by professionals show accuracy and attention to detail that rivals those found in jobs executed by machines.

Habu: There is also an aspect of confusion between specialized AI such as shogi software programs with general-purpose AI. Many judgments are incorporated in actions that we do casually. For example, a child old enough to attend kindergarten will recognize that a drone is different from the birds that he or she has seen up to that point without fail if he or she sees it fly several times. Such recognition seems to have a high level of difficulty. For example, AI recognizes a new cat photo as the photo of a cat after seeing many cat photos for its learning. This is the level that AI finally achieved about four years ago. In other words, humans learn and reason things simultaneously and unintentionally. But embedding those functions as algorithms is a considerably difficult task. As this shows, adapting and adjusting to things never before experienced and making choices and decisions are very difficult. Professor Sakai, please explain this.

Sakai: Humans can learn and reason at the same time because they can use different parts of their brains simultaneously. The child who saw a drone in the previous example advances reasoning about the differences of birds by shape and flying mode instantly while also learning the characteristics of the new object. Such recognition differs qualitatively by humans and AI.

AI has been developed by imitating the neural network in brains. The deep learning that has developed remarkably in recent years employs many middle layers like the visual areas of the brain. Advanced learning in sets of two layers has succeeded in this method. Still, the capacity of AI is far simpler and more limited, compared with that of actual human brains.

Incidentally, computers are not AI unless they are mounted with a special program. They are just calculators, like pocket calculators. We cannot call a mathematical demonstration a judgment, even if it is performed on a computer. In the meantime, sometimes a program hits a roadblock due to a human mistake beyond expectations. People call such a mistake a bug. We can predict mistakes on the human side to a certain extent based on past experiences. But mistakes by AI may become difficult to predict on all levels when AI goes out of control. The question is whether it is OK for humans to leave important judgments to AI that has such a possibility. After all, this is also a problem on the human side.

Habu: I see. The University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute mentioned climate change, pandemics and economic confusion in the twelve risks that threaten human civilization that it published. These are just risks. AI was one of those twelve. We can think of many risks involved with AI, but AI has the potential to solve all of the other risks, including energy and food problems. We must consider about many issues, such as ethics and rule-making on the human side, but I think we should advance studies on AI going forward, because another person will start to develop AI even if someone calls for its suspension.

AI Raises the Question of How Humans Should Live with the Mind

Sakai: To replace the human mind with AI, we must solve the difficult problem of understanding the mind. We have not yet succeeded in scientifically grasping our consciousness and personality known as the mind. First, we have not been able to define it, because the mind functions in a cycle, preventing us from defining its general conditions. We cannot compare the human mind to something else because a criterion has not been established. As in the Liar Paradox, a definite base that guarantees that we are in a normal state of mind is difficult to discern within ourselves.

Habu: The placebo effect also demonstrates the wonders of the mind. I understand that it works with internal diseases. It is effective for mental illnesses in some cases, too. Phenomena science cannot fully express what take place in the mind.

Sakai: The human mind is extremely diverse. It has highly individualistic parts that are shaped through many experiences, in addition to portions that are determined by genetics. In that case, whose mind should be adopted as the standard model becomes a question in AI design. Furthermore, there is a gap between the mind and the language of humans. What lies in the mind of other people is practically impossible to predict for that reason. AI cannot become a commodity just because it is similar to the human mind. What can we do with a developed family robot that quarrels with other family members and runs away from home just like a human? [Laughs]

Habu: Incidentally, do you think AI is likely to acquire a language? Books on natural language processing that I read were full of numerical formulas, contrary to my expectation of finding accounts on languages. That discovery causes me to wonder if languages can also be converted into algorithms. My impression is that automatic translation by computers has certainly improved its performance in recent years.

Sakai: You may be able to sense progress made by AI in linguistic expressions on the surface level. But it is humans who understand those expressions by supplementing portions that are missing. To begin with, AI, which is based on probability, statistics and learning, cannot grasp human languages theoretically. That is the case because grammatical judgments, which form the core of human languages, are completely independent from such factors. Noam Chomsky, an American linguist and philosopher, pointed that out in his book, “Syntactic Structures,” just sixty years ago. Chomsky is well-known for having laid the foundations for natural language processing, which is pivotal to AI. But many researchers do not refer to this book. They are under the illusion that languages can be grasped easily.

Habu: Languages also convey feelings. I had the chance to interview a researcher who once instructed AI to write music. He told me he had thought about ordering the AI to write poems, in addition to music, but he wondered if that had any meaning. AI will produce works of some kind, but the meanings of poems lie in the lives and experiences of the poets reflected in them. He said that poems made by AI could be a mere list of letters.

Sakai: In that case, music written by AI seems like a mere list of notes, too. [Laughs] As that case shows, AI again questions the value of language and art. Genuine AI studies are nothing less than a way to understand humans.

Habu: As you said, thinking about AI is the same as thinking about humans. AI is a mirror that shows how humans are. I believe that we can richly reinterpret the meaning of human life by studying AI.

Translated from “Taidan: Jinko chino vs Ningen wa Shogi demo Nichijoseikatsu demo? ―AI ga toitadasu Ningen ga ikiru imi (Dialogue: Is Artificial Intelligence Versus Humans Reflected in Shogi as Well as Everyday Life? ―AI Raises Again the Question of How Humans Should Live),” Chuokoron, April 2017, pp. 116-124. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [April 2017]

Yano Uiko	Matsuoka Kazumi

Yano Uiko, one of this article’s two authors, comes from Miyakubo Town, which is a part of Imabari City in Ehime Prefecture. The town is located on the island of Oshima, which is part of the Shimanami Kaido, a sea route connecting several Seto Inland Sea Islands. This area was notable during the Warring States period, and features the remains of a base that belonged to the Murakami Pirates. It has a thriving fishing industry, and there are many places where you can see rows of boats at their docks. Seafood is also a mainstay of the region’s economy and cuisine.

According to the 2010 national census some 2292 people lived in Miyakubo, and of those 18 were deaf. About 30 years ago more than 30 deaf people lived in the town, where Yano is from. All of her family are deaf: her parents and grandparents, and also her father’s siblings. It is not clear whether the relatively high number of deaf people in the town is related to genetics. In fact, the inhabitants of the town didn’t consider it particularly important whether people were deaf or not and thus never sought a reason.

At one point in time, both deaf people and hearing people in Miyakubo knew and used Miyakubo Sign Language in their home lives and while fishing. Since almost all the hearing people in the town could sign, both spoken Japanese and Miyakubo Sign Language were used in the area. If you went to the shore you would see both deaf and hearing people chatting in sign language, and residents were able to share information quite smoothly. When deaf friends of Yano came from Tokyo or Osaka to visit the island, they might write on a piece of paper, “Where is Yano’s house?” and show it to a passing hearing person. The hearing person would then reply in sign language: “I’ll show you. Follow me,” and lead them to her house. The hearing residents of Miyakubo were so expert at sign language that they could do this on a daily basis.

Japanese Sign Language (JSL) vs Signed Japanese

When people speak of “sign language” in Japan, they actually refer to several linguistically distinct languages, so the use of these terms needs to be clarified. What is referred to as ‘sign language’ can be divided into the following:

1) Japanese Sign Language. This is the native language of children born to deaf parents, and has grammatical features that differ from spoken Japanese.

2) Signed Japanese. This replaces Japanese words with signs borrowed from Japanese Sign Language, but follows the grammar of Japanese. It is also known as Manually Coded Japanese or Simultaneous Communication.

3) Mixed Sign. A mixture of the above two.

JSL is a language that developed naturally among deaf people in Japan and was passed down through the generations. As a language that developed based on the visual mode of meaning transfer, JSL has a set of distinctive grammatical features. On the other hand, Signed Japanese developed based on the auditory mode of meaning transfer, and is artificially made to correspond word by word to spoken Japanese. The grammar of signed Japanese is fundamentally different from JSL and any other sign languages. It is virtually a manually coded version of Japanese and cannot properly be regarded as a natural sign language.

The fact that sign languages of particular regions have linguistic features distinct from local spoken languages was first made clear in the research of primarily American linguists and psychologists in the 1960s. In Japan too, there is growing interest in research investigating the distinct features of JSL (as summarized in Saito 2016 (1) and Matsuoka 2015 (2)). However, people in Japan are not sufficiently aware of the plain fact that JSL is a separate language from Japanese.

Deaf people and those with hearing disabilities are a minority in Japanese society, but even among them native signers of JSL are a minority and are in an even more difficult position. First of all, as with anywhere in the world, the proportion of deaf children born to deaf parents is extremely low (around 10%, it is thought). Thus, the number of signers using sign language as their native language is extremely limited, even among deaf people.

What’s more, native signers of JSL struggle to have their voices heard in Japanese society. Native signers need to learn Japanese as a second language, which has many grammatical features that are different from JSL. Yet, with rare exceptions, deaf education in Japan doesn’t take into account the distinct differences between JSL and Japanese. For that reason, it has not been easy for native signers of JSL to acquire sufficient ability in Japanese. When people do not acquire sufficient ability in the dominant language of their community their opportunities to make their “voice” heard will be limited, and they will be forced into the position of a suppressed “minority within a minority”.

A language shared between deaf and hearing people: village sign languages and island sign languages

There are many regions and countries where it is recognized that multiple distinct languages are used. To date, there have also been a number of accounts from around the world (Perniss et al. 2007 (3), Zeshan and de Vos 2012 (4)) of relatively defined regions where not only are different spoken languages used, but there are also “village signs” (shared sign languages in the community) that function as a shared language for deaf and hearing people.

When village signs are used on an island they may be known as “island signs”. But when traffic with other regions becomes more frequent due to changes in the economic and political situation, the number of village sign users tends to rapidly decrease or disappear, and hence many village sign languages reach the verge of extinction.

It has been reported that there are regional varieties (dialects) of JSL in various parts of Japan, just like regional dialects of spoken Japanese. Unlike many dialects of JSL, Miyakubo Sign Language shows major variations beyond differing sets of vocabulary items. It can be considered an island sign language due to its grammatical features distinct from JSL. Below, we will give an example of the unique grammatical features of Miyakubo Sign Language.

The special linguistic features of Miyakubo sign language

We have been researching Miyakubo’s sign language since 2014. Like other village sign languages reported outside Japan, Miyakubo Sign language can be considered as being at an intermediary stage of development between gesture and language.

As mentioned earlier, the differences between JSL and Miyakubo Sign Language are not just those of signed words. An example is given in the illustration below, which shows a spatial representation of time known as a “timeline”. JSL uses a timeline (see the illustration on the left) which represents the time from the back of the signer’s shoulder to the space in front of the signer: i.e. past behind the body, present at the body, and future in front of the body. The timeline for Miyakubo sign language, on the other hand, (see the illustration on the right) shows the flow of the time horizontally from the dominant side to center.

It is of particular interest that the flow of time expressed in Miyakubo Sign Language timeline covers the past to the present. The future is expressed without any particular spatial position. Various forms of timelines are often discussed as examples to show the diversity of sign languages in the world. It is notable that the diversity of the timelines can be found within different regions of the same country.

Miyakubo Sign Language today

Yano, like many other deaf children in Japan, left the island and entered a school for the deaf in Matsuyama City. Back then, she mistakenly thought that all the people in the world used a sign language. For that reason, when she moved into the dorm, the fact that she couldn’t freely use sign language was more of a shock than being separated from her parents.

When her grandmother came to meet her at the dormitory each week to take her home for weekend visits, the deaf and hearing staff who learned Signed Japanese criticized her grandma’s signing as being “strange”. Grandma was so hurt that she wouldn’t talk for some time, and the whole family was furious. Outside the island, other deaf people looked down on the sign language cherished by people in Miyakubo.

Even though Yano wanted to stress how Miyakubo Sign Language was an important language, spoken Japanese was considered far more important than sign language at schools for the deaf. Educators were convinced that sign language wouldn’t be useful when students left the school, and unfortunately that policy has barely changed in deaf education today. Opportunities for deaf children to interact with each other in their own sign language have not been sufficiently provided in educational institutions. When Yano wonders how long the deaf will have to struggle to recover their own language, she feels overwhelmed by the unreasonableness of the situation.

Though Yano was not happy with the situation at school, she was still able to communicate in Miyakubo Sign Language with islanders whenever she returned to the island until 10 years ago. Around the year 2000, however, a bridge was completed that connected Ehime-Oshima Island to th1e rest of the Imabari City and other islands, and it became easier to travel to and from other areas. On top of that, there were other major changes in the social environment, such as the spread of the Internet. Instead of asking questions to hearing neighbors using sign language, younger deaf people in Miyakubo began to search for information by themselves. With fewer opportunities to meet face-to-face and communicate using sign language, young hearing people on the island have less chance to use Miyakubo Sign Language.

The deaf people of Miyakubo are becoming more isolated. The paternal aunt of Yano, 73 years old, laments the situation, saying:

“Before, we could talk and understand freely so we were able to share all the pleasures and pains of life. These days, no one knows the sign language. There are many sign words new to me, so I don’t even know what other deaf people are saying. I want people to continue to use and treasure Miyakubo Sign Language.”

As deaf Miyakubo residents age, Miyakubo Sign Language faces extinction. As one of the inheritors of the sign language, Yano feels strongly that Miyakubo Sign language must be properly recorded and preserved to prevent it from disappearing without a trace.

Translated from “Kagaku Tsushin, Ehime-ken Oshimamiyakubo-cho no shuwa: airando sain (Kagaku-Tsushin, Island Signs: The Sign Language of Miyakubo in Ehime Prefecture” Kagaku, May 2017, pp. 0415-0417, ©2017 by Yano Uiko and Matsuoka Kazumi. Reprinted by permission of the authors c/o Iwanami Shoten, Publishers. [May 2017]

How do people at universities overseas view Japan? What do those universities teach students about Japan? I would like to answer these questions in this special feature of Chuokoron based on my own experiences over the last nine years I spent as a professor at the University of Oxford, one of the oldest and top-ranked universities in the UK.

In addition to answering these questions, I would like to examine the problems involved in the topic (that is, what is taught about Japan overseas), which interests people in Japan to the point of urging Discuss Japan editors to come up with a special feature like this. I would like to do so because this second theme brings problems in Japanese society and Japanese education to the forefront.

Report on the State of Japanese Studies Overseas

Kariya Takehiko, Professor, University of Oxford

Before touching on interest in Japan and research and teaching in Japanese Studies at the University of Oxford, I would like to point out several facts that became evident at an international conference organized by Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies at the University of Oxford, to which I belong, in March 2013. Researchers in Japanese studies invited from not only Britain and Japan but also from North America and Australia (including Japanese language instructors) discussed trends in Japanese studies overseas (opportunities to study and learn ways of understanding Japan) at this conference, which was held to address the question of why Japan matters (what matters about Japan and how those things about Japan matter).

One of the sub themes at the conference was whether interest in Japanese studies was weakening. A possible shift from Japan bashing to Japan passing was a public topic. Furthermore, interest in Chinese studies has strengthened among East Asian studies as a result of China’s economic and political rise. The possibility that interest in Japan was weakening under the effect of this trend was pointed out at the conference.

Professor Patricia Steinhoff, who teaches Japanese studies courses at the University of Hawaii, answered this question directly. Professor Steinhoff examined empirically whether or not the suspected decline in interest was true, comparing data from 2005 with those from 2012 based on surveys of Japanese studies institutions and programs in the United States and Canada. According to the findings of these surveys, the number of Japanese studies programs did increase, from 184 in 2005 to 196 in 2012. The number of Japanese studies specialists grew from 1,284 in 2005 to 1,435 in 2012 as well. In addition, the number of Japanese studies majors in doctoral courses rose from 585 in 2005 to 634 in 2012. Their number has a bearing on the number of researchers in the future. The number of Japanese language courses outside fields of Japanese studies also rose from 1,757 in 2005 to 2,380 in 2012. They grew more in terms of ratio. Based on these findings, Professor Steinhoff concluded that the suspected decline in Japanese studies was a myth that was not grounded in fact.

Certainly, we cannot deny that the major progress being achieved by China in politics and the economy is causing Chinese studies to attract rapidly increasing attention. The impression that interest in Japanese studies is declining by comparison is correct among East Asian studies in relative terms. However, a decline in interest in Japanese studies was not found to be factual as far as North America was concerned. That was the real situation.

Interest in Pop Cultures

Professor Steinhoff raised other important points in her report as well. She pointed out that interest in Japanese studies had shifted among students, and that their interest had a different focus from that of students interested in Chinese studies.

According to her, more students took an interest in the Japanese economy and businesses in the 1980s, when interest in Japan rose and acted as a tailwind for Japanese studies and Japanese language studies. Professor Steinhoff believes that the current interest in Chinese studies resembles the way things were for Japanese studies back then.

In contrast, interest in Japanese studies has departed from the stage of being a temporary fad. It is now growing steadily. Unlike in the past, the interest is now based on interest in Japanese cultures, particularly subcultures and pop cultures. Professor Thomson stressed a similar point in her report, which examined changes in the numbers of students in Japanese studies and Japanese language courses in Australia.

This point coincides with a point raised by Professor Murphy, a Chinese studies specialist at the University of Oxford, when the author interviewed her a while ago. According to her, the number of applicants to undergraduate-level Chinese studies courses is decreasing at the University of Sheffield, one of the leading universities in East Asian studies in the UK. In the meantime, the number of applicants to Japanese studies courses is said to be increasing. According to Professor Murphy’s interpretation, pop cultures and subcultures are stronger motives for young people aged 19 to 20 years old than interest in future businesses. She also believes that such motives are supporting the increase in the number of students choosing Japanese studies over Chinese studies, or their strong interest in Japanese studies.

In this way, interest in cultures is connected to the strong interest in Japanese studies found at universities in English-speaking countries such as the United States, Canada, Britain and Australia. There is no doubt that the global popularity of Japanese pop cultures and subcultures, such as manga, animations and video games, is supporting this strong interest. I think that is a point that anyone could come up with.

The view that interest in cultures is supporting Japanese studies may seem to be a matter of course on the face of it. However, this view requires caution. I think that it will be better for me to examine this issue after introducing Japanese studies at the University of Oxford.

Japanese Studies at the University of Oxford

Two organizations are taking charge of Japanese studies (including Japanese language education) at the University of Oxford. The Japanology program in the Faculty of Oriental Studies that belongs to the Oriental Institute is mainly taking charge of undergraduate-level education. There are two associate professors of Japanese literature (in charge of modern literature and medieval literature, respectively), a professor of linguistics and faculty members in charge of Japanese language education in this program. As their fields of expertise suggest, humanities subjects, such as literature, linguistics and the Japanese language, form the center of undergraduate-level education. (Professors in the program teach students in master’s and doctoral courses as well.) In the meantime, the subjects studied by students in the program include those that come under social sciences as well. Instructors who belong to the other of the two organizations, the Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies, teach those subjects.

There is one professor each in charge of political science, economics and businesses, anthropology, history and sociology (the author) in this latter organization, which offers a master’s program in Japanese studies based mainly on social sciences and modern history. This master’s course differs from the Faculty of Oriental Studies program mentioned above in that the course bears the title Modern Japanese Studies (instead of titles like Japanology that retain the flavors of Orientalism). Moreover, the professors of the course are also members of the departments of their disciplines (such as the Department of Sociology, the Department of Politics and International Relations, the Faculty of History and so on). They teach students in master’s and doctoral programs in the departments of their disciplines as well. (The research topics chosen by these students are not limited to matters related to Japan, particularly in the Department of Sociology to which I belong.)

Students in the Modern Japanese Studies master’s program are required to take two subjects from their respective fields of expertise, in addition to a course on social sciences methodology and intensive Japanese language classes. These requirements are aimed at deepening their understanding of Japan through social sciences and modern history while equipping them with a high command of Japanese language skills. Starting from the new academic year in October 2017, professors affiliated with the Faculty of Oriental Studies and the Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies have offered one integrated master’s program titled Japanese Studies (with the word “modern” removed from the previous title) as the only postgraduate master’s program related to Japan at the University of Oxford (http://www.nissan.ox.ac.uk/prospective-students).

Presence or Absence of a Viewpoint for Relativizing Japan

What is being taught in these programs? In this article, I would like to focus my answer on the Modern Japanese Studies master’s program.

The questions asked in the final examinations that are requisite for graduation enable us to estimate nearly all the contents of the course. As I pointed out in Okkusufoodo-karano Keisho (An Alarm Bell from Oxford), my recent work published as part of Chuokoron-Shinsha, Inc.’s La Clef paperback series, these examinations are given entirely in essay style in the final term after the end of classwork for all subjects (in which students are required to read a massive amount of literature). The final examination for each subject is three hours long. Normally, nine questions are asked in each subject, and students choose three of them to answer. They handwrite their answers on four to five A4-sized sheets per question. The questions asked in the final examinations reflect the study results expected in the respective subjects.

To cite examples (translated once in Japanese then translated back into English, and slightly modified by the author), the following questions were asked in a past final examination for a course on Japanese politics taught by Professor Neary.

All of these questions are very hard to deal with. They require knowledge learned from literature with a prerequisite understanding of the concepts associated with Japanese politics. Professor Neary asked these questions to make the students think, rather than simply asking them to present detailed knowledge.

Let me now share the questions in Japanese history taught by Professor Konishi.

These questions examine students’ understanding of the modern history of Japan (particularly changes from the Edo period to the Meiji period). They are impossible to answer unless students theoretically and conceptually grasp the historical experiences of Japan. They demand a knowledge of historical facts learned from literature and lectures and the ability to understand such knowledge conceptually and theoretically, and ponder and express it.

As these questions suggest, what is expected to be discussed in final examinations is more than knowledge based on facts, regardless of the subject, including politics, history, economy, society or cultures. These questions reflect a strong awareness of a connection between facts and concepts and theories that give meanings to the facts. Answers are not good unless they can express this connection logically and articulately. Furthermore, these questions demand the ability to understand and think in original ways. We can say that teaching and learning in the program are undertaken for these purposes.

The program offer concepts and theories that are indispensable in each subject to such thinking in English, the de-facto lingua franca in today’s academic community. That is another important point. Each course provides theoretical foundations built on concepts and theories elaborated across different disciplines including Japanese studies, and are all expressed in English, one of the most easily accessible languages globally. Therefore, we cannot use them in an isolated way, as is often the case among Japanese scholars in Japan who teach and write only in Japanese. The theoretical foundations and their modifications should be contiguous to those developed in the global context, not limited only within Japan in Japanese.  In other words, Japanese studies outside Japan must stand on such a global context which enforces any academic products of Japanese studies to be located in this global academic context contiguous to academic works in other disciplines as well as in other geographical regions.

On the other hand, there are apparent cases in which theories built overseas are applied to research on Japan undertaken by Japanese researchers at universities in Japan, and concepts borrowed from overseas are translated and used for analyses, explanations and teaching in Japanese. The fruits of the studies of Western knowledge have, despite ridicule in the name of imported studies, long characterized social sciences scholarship and education in Japan. However, the types of reactions and interactions that the application of borrowed foreign theories and concepts may cause to these original theories and concepts are sought in very limited cases. Theorization does not incorporate such intended reactions and interactions easily as long as the theories and concepts are expressed only in Japanese and Japanese people are assumed to be their main readership. If I might venture to simplify, theories and concepts are in just one-way borrowing and applications without any productive returns contributed to the global academic communities. Differences from overseas Japanese studies in which the application of any theories and concepts inevitably goes back to the elaboration process for original theories and concepts arise as a result of the language (often in English) selected for expressing them.

To rephrase further, a comparative viewpoint must lay at the base of Japanese studies overseas in understanding Japan from the beginning. The subject called “Japan” cannot be viewed as self-evident in Japanese studies overseas. As the international conference mentioned above inquired, Japanese studies overseas must ask why Japan matters (what matters about Japan and how those things about Japan matter). Differences from studies produced by Japanese researchers in Japan in the Japanese language for Japanese readers result from this point. This aspect is also related to overseas interest in Japanese cultures that I put on hold earlier in this article.

A Transnational Viewpoint

At this point, I would like to go back to Professor Steinhoff’s report cited above. Professor Steinhoff pointed out that interest in Japanese cultures, including subcultures and pop cultures, has acted as a strong motive for students who have chosen Japanese studies in recent years. What Kitagawa Toshihiko, a Japanese language instructor at Reagent’s University in London, told me in connection with this point was instructive.

According to Kitagawa, interest in Japanese manga, animations and the like is definitely a reason for students to consider studying the Japanese language. They have been in touch with these cultures through television and the Internet since early childhood. They belong to a generation of people who grew up that way. As a supplementary explanation for this view, Kitagawa pointed out the possibility that many of those young people grew up without being aware that these cultures came from Japan.

The same thing is happening in the field of food culture. Japanese sushi has now gone completely global. We can buy sushi at ordinary supermarkets in major cities in Britain, and there are conveyor belt sushi bars at airports and big railway stations. However, according to Kitagawa, young people today have virtually no perception that sushi is Japanese food. Cultures cross national borders easily. They mix with other cultures. They spread and are consumed independently from their places of origin. They also produce new cultures. These movements tear down frameworks such as nation-states and national cultures.

Political attempts to link subcultures and pop cultures born in Japan with industrial and trade policies under the slogan of “Cool Japan” were repeatedly reported once. In these attempts, Japan was considered to be a uniform entity with a nation-state, a national culture and a national economy. Efforts were made to link cultures born in Japan with businesses without asking any questions about this view. In that sense, they were an internationalization strategy for crossing borders with their national status as an unchangeable assumption.

This strategy and viewpoint result in contributions to the substantialization of the uniformity of entities called “national.” They represent a viewpoint that contrasts with the interest shown by young people in contents that are Japanese cultures with no obsession with their roots. To borrow an expression from Sakai Naoki, a professor of Japanese culture at Cornell University, young people’s interest is “an approach to cultures that is made in a way that cuts across a community of people” (Sakai, N. et al., eds., 1996, Nashonaritii-no Datsukochiku (Deconstructing Nationalities) Kashiwashobo Publishing Co., Ltd., p.18). The spread and consumption of cultures via YouTube and other web media has admittedly accelerated this approach.

As Sakai points out, opinions called Nihonjin-ron (theories on Japanese people) once produced blind spots that caused people to lose sight of the diversity and multiplicity of cultures and societies by attributing cultures to a specific national culture and a nation-state and viewing the presence of cultures peculiar to Japan (that differ mainly from Western cultures) as self-evident. As a result, those opinions provided a cognitive framework that admits the superiority of things national in a way they did not intend. They were nationalism of a kind that demanded the endorsement of the presence called Japan as a uniform entity. The same thing is happening today, even though advocates do not call their opinions Nihonjin-ron anymore.

I would like to quote Sakai’s statement further in connection with this point: “Accidental origins in the Japanese Archipelago or Western Europe and the sameness of ethnic groups and people are entirely different matters. Many of the computer games sold by Nintendo are made in Japan, but many children around the world enjoy them without taking any notice of things like their Japanese origin [sentences are omitted here]. On the contrary [phrase added by the quoter], the types of opinions that adhere to national cultures and national characteristics force cultures to symbolize ethnic groups and nation [kokumin]. The signs of ethnic groups and nation are not inherently engraved in cultures themselves” (op. cit. p. 22).

We should not mistake greater overseas interest in Japanese culture for the greater presence of a national community of people called Japan. Professor Whittaker, another colleague of mine at the Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies, pointed out the same thing in his conversation with the author.

This very special feature on how people view Japan at universities overseas and how Japan is taught there can end up building a view on Japan that strengthens the substantiality and uniformity of a nation-state and a national culture and becomes trapped in such frameworks, unless we watch out for the danger.

The affirmative re-endorsement of the images and understanding of Japan is sought today because of a growing sense of threat that China and other emerging nations may catch up with or overtake Japan. A viewpoint for relativizing the very desire for endorsement is essential for staying away from such simplistic nationalistic moves and sentiments. A transnational viewpoint (a viewpoint beyond nation-states) offers an effective approach to that end.

Moreover, a viewpoint for accepting diversity and multiplicity in Japan, instead of grasping Japan (Japanese people and cultures) as a monolith or a homogeneous entity, is essential. The latter viewpoint once led Nihonjin-ron to the myth of ethnic homogeneity. All the viewpoints mentioned above share a stance against viewing the phenomenon called Japan as self-evident.

Moving beyond Nationalism

All modern nation-states have an awareness called nationalism. We cannot deny the fact that advancing globalization is strengthening nationalism as well. However, with endorsed academic freedom and freedom of expression as education institutions, how can universities teach the next generation to become “educated citizens” who are able to relativize such trends prudently?

The contents of subjects taught are not the only things that universities in Japan can learn from research and teaching in Japanese studies at overseas counterparts. They can also learn the viewpoints and approaches undertaken there by learning how they teach.

A shift toward classwork in English is being encouraged these days under a globalization policy aiming at Japanese universities. However, teaching subjects in English is not sufficient for globalization. The advantage of lessons in a language other than Japanese lies in the establishment of a distance from Japan without viewing any phenomena known as Japan as self-evident, together with the birth of awareness that any research on Japan should stand on the same intellectual ground of transnational academic communities. We can achieve such results in the Japanese language, too, if we take this into account seriously.

The question of why Japan matters (what matters about Japan and how those things about Japan matter), which keeps a distance from the view that the phenomena and experiences called Japan are self-evident, has currency in university education in Japan as well. This question helps universities in Japan establish a foothold that is not buffeted about by intensifying waves of globalization and nationalism, which often urge us to simplify world views.

Translated from “Tokushu ‘Habado no Nihon sai-hakken’: Okkusufoodo kara mita ‘Nihon’ toiu mondai (Feature Article ‘Rediscovering Japan at Harvard’: The Topic of Japan Viewed from Oxford),” Chuokoron, September 2017, pp. 80-88. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [September 2017]

The influx of foreign tourists into Japan reminds one sociologist of American soldiers stationed in Japan immediately after the Second World War. What does he think of the current tourism boom? In this essay, Professor Miyajima’s essay covers several perspectives that are critical to thinking about this issue.

Early Memories of the Post-War Period

Miyajima Takashi, Professor Emeritus, Ochanomizu University

Perhaps it is just a fancy of mine, but for someone who spent their childhood and youth in post-war Yokohama, the current influx of foreign tourists to Japan reminds me of the officers and soldiers of the American occupation. Looking back, it seems like a storm that blew fiercely, then passed; seven or eight years during which there were several American bases and barracks in the city. Of course, Okinawa has been experiencing the same thing continually since the war, but elsewhere there has never before, or after, been so many foreign soldiers and military personnel immersed in daily life in Japan.

We know that the press (newspaper) and radio codes laid down by GHQ were strict, and forbade criticism of the occupying forces, or reporting of undesirable behavior. But I and my contemporaries had many opportunities to see the soldiers’ behavior at very first-hand. I hated seeing drunken soldiers acting like vandals and going around breaking the windows of people’s homes, and was almost traumatized. Yet, at the same time, I also had a positive impression when I saw how some soldiers might be trying to change Japanese culture. For example, on a train I once saw a man I presume was an American soldier order a youth to get up and give his seat to an old person who was standing up and holding onto the straps.

I also remember how wonderfully lively and energetic the girls at my school were. They often talked about movies they’d seen and been impressed by, such as Madame Curie, One Hundred Men and a Girl, or Little Women. Their eyes were opened by these films; it seems to me that they had decided to look for their own way to live, not just be women who do housework and sewing. By choosing and releasing these American films, the occupying force inspired young women enormously.

On another occasion, around the first year of middle school, I was on a train reading one of a set of books of literature for young people which was called Cuore. An American soldier sat down next to me and looked over at the European-style illustrations with interest, then asked me what I was reading. I told him about the Italian story, and he replied that he was an Italian-American, and that cuore means “heart” in Italian. That was all that happened, but I’ll never forget it, and it was a conversation that touched my own heart.

Thinking back, he must have only spent a few years at most as a guest here in the Far East. And even though it was just a passing encounter, it was a cultural encounter, and one that left a long-lasting mark on me as a human being.

Encounters in unexpected places: the wave of new tourists

Each year the news reports record-breaking numbers of foreign tourists coming to Japan, and every year there are new pictures of tourists posing and smiling as they stand in front of the huge lantern at Kaminarimon in Tokyo’s Asakusa.
   This wave of tourists has also reached Japan’s regions. From around fifteen years ago, when restrictions on group tours from China were lifted, I have seen tourists staying and shopping even in Tokai region towns (not a typical sightseeing area). From about five years ago I’ve also encountered visitors from Europe and the United States in unexpected places. Once I bumped into a group of ten or more German men and women in Tsumagoi, a post town of the Kiso Valley, an area which will be familiar to readers of Shimazaki Toson’s novel, Before the Dawn. They were strolling around the village taking lots of photos of the houses, and told me that they were staying at an old ryokan inn in the town.

Following the global financial crisis, the yen became relatively cheap and it became easier for foreigners to visit Japan. At the same time, distinctive off-the-beaten-path travel itineraries began to appear (I wonder who chose them?), that differed from the standard route of Narita Airport arrival, Tokyo, Kyoto, Kansai Airport departure. Even greater numbers of tourists come from Asia, and they often use budget airlines, frequently starting and ending their journeys at somewhat unlikely regional airports. For that reason, the range of areas being visited has expanded considerably.

Is omotenashi hospitality really a good thing?

Looking into and researching Japan’s tourism policy is my own specialization, but for a while I’ve sensed that two things are missing from Japan’s tourism policy.

One is how it lacks the useful kind of specialization. In its bid for the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, Japan strongly stressed and promoted its culture of omotenashi hospitality, but I feel there is something unfocused about this. People say that, “We must be kind to visitors.” Of course, smiling and being kind is very important, but for a successful tourism industry, it is more important that we have information centers located in the right places that can deal effectively with visitors, as well as qualified staff who are able to give proper guidance on buying tickets, arranging accommodation, historical sites, and the historical background to these. A kind of specialization is necessary. It is too easy just to have a few well-meaning locals with limited English volunteering to help foreign visitors, and at the end of the day it doesn’t help much.

Japan’s Tour-Guide Interpreter qualification dates back over half a century. According to the 2016 Tourism White Paper, although 190,000 people hold the qualification (2015), three in four are not active as guides. Many registered guides live in metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, and the vast majority are registered as English-speaking. Conversely, few guides can speak languages such as Chinese or Korean, so there is a mismatch with demand. During the last twenty-five years, the number of visitors to Japan from abroad has doubled and tripled, so one would have expected the assumption that all tourists speak English to have changed significantly.

Yet, the nation and the tourism industry have not sufficiency changed their way of thinking when it comes to dealing with foreign languages. Chinese, Korean and Peruvian people living in Japan might work in the industry, and since there are no nationality restrictions, we should encourage them to take the exam. Incidentally, in the immigration-based society of the United States there are officially qualified guides from many ethnic groups, and this is how they meet the needs of tourists from many diverse cultures.

The other thing that I have sensed for a while is that there are no high-standard basic guidebooks with quality contents, either for Japanese people or for foreigners. The shelves of book stores are filled with all sorts of guide books, but most seem to contain simple advice on famous locations, local souvenirs, festivals and eating. For forty years, I’ve been using Michelin guides when traveling in Europe, and there is nothing comparable in Japan.

The Michelin guides were created by the French tire maker to help popularize driving holidays. The books were wonderfully well made, comprehensive and easy to read. They quickly dominated the market, and versions in various languages have been made. I have one to hand here (a guide to Provence), and if I open it I find that of the 329-page total length, summaries of the region’s history, languages, literature, art and architecture account for forty-five pages. If I look up the relatively minor sightseeing area of Tarascon, it has around three pages. Half a page covers history, one and a half pages detail several scenic sights and churches, half a page is a map of the town, and half a page is filled with photos. These are the guidebooks that French people take with them when traveling. So, when they come to Japan and must rely on a single Michelin guidebook, Japon, they must feel something is lacking. Yet, even in that one book, of 680 total pages, 80 are devoted to a well-written general description of Japan titled “Comprendre Japon.”

Of course, it is up to publishers to produce guidebooks. But as a country we can’t ignore the need for a high-quality guidebook written by Japanese people and translated into various languages. There is a need for a properly standardized overview of Japanese history, as well as material on Japan’s distinctive historical and cultural features, temple and shrine architecture, styles of art, and other topics.

How foreign tourists are portrayed

According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, which makes its calculations based on the Ministry of Justice’s statistics on the number of non-Japanese entering Japan, the number of foreign tourists¹ to Japan in 2015 was around 17 million. Once again, this is a record. In the general breakdown, 14.67 million visitors were from Asia, accounting for 86% of the total and dominating the top of the list (see figure).

Although, the vast majority of visitors are from Asia, the media have covered the topic slightly differently. The tourists that are positively portrayed on TV walking around Tokyo’s working class districts and rediscovering those forgotten fascinating aspects of Japan that Japanese people don’t notice are overwhelmingly from Europe and the United States. When Asian tourists are shown, the focus is usually on Chinese people, and many of the reports are on their shopping sprees or “bad manners.” The contrast between these portrayals is worrying, and these stereotypes need to be corrected.

Even among visitors from Asia there is much variety, and China and South Korea are different. Chinese-speaking visitors are all lumped together, but the People’s Republic of China accounts for 45%, while the remainder includes people from different countries such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. In terms of per-capita GDP, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore can be considered developed or near-developed countries, and the tourists from those countries are ordinary members of their middle classes. Chinese tourists are often described as the “rich few.” Although group tours of Chinese are common, and they tend not to speak English, and communication with some can be difficult, there is no need to view them differently. I will discuss this later, but when you think back to groups of Japanese tourists visiting Paris and New York thirty years ago, you might have said the same about them.

Curiosity-driven tourists from Asia

Locations where you might see lots of foreign tourists include Osaka Castle and Kumamoto Castle prior to its partial destruction in an earthquake. Some Korean and Chinese visitors are interested in Japanese history, and some groups can be seen carefully reading information displays. A few years ago, on a visit Osaka Castle, I encountered a group of four or five Koreans at a huge rock (5.5 m high and 11.7 m wide) known as the Takoishi. They were admiring the rock and discussing it. One of their group could speak Japanese and he asked the Japanese tourists nearby: “Is there a mountain in Japan big enough to cut this rock out of?” and “Why did they bring it from there?” The Japanese explained that it was cut from an island in the Seto Inland Sea, then brought by boat, and that until a century ago Osaka Bay was much larger, so goods could be offloaded from ships right by the castle. Nodding, the Korean tourists said, “I see,” and looked satisfied.

Just like this, there are Asian tourists who come to see, read, listen, discuss and try to understand Japanese culture. That some understand Japanese helps them a lot. Some find meaning in their Japan visits through eating Japanese food and various other “experiences.” Meanwhile, many young people are prompted to see and explore Japan by their interest in manga, anime and music. I don’t know what exactly this behavior by Asian tourists tells us, but I can sense a huge curiosity towards Japan.

A one-sided view?

On the other hand, it may be a sign of their materialism, but we can’t ignore the fact that these tourists tend to go shopping for large quantities of goods: from cosmetics and the latest electronic appliances, to toothpaste and diapers. This is what you might call the inevitable symptom of a distortion in their own domestic market. Even as they produce excellent industrial goods for export, they lack consumer goods of the quality they need for everyday life. Also, these shopping trips for expensive goods are closely tied to the strategy of Japanese companies who organize tours and include trips to Ginza and famous department stores to encourage tourists to spend money. In reality, the policy and priority of both Japan’s tourism industry and large shops such as department stores is for visitors to spend money in Japan. Thinking about what these tourists might want to see or learn comes second. In that sense, the kind of European tourists who might want to slowly see Japan without spending much money on shopping are not very welcome. (It is clear that tourists from England, Germany, Italy and other European countries spend relatively little money on shopping.) By comparison, Chinese tourists spend 57%² of their travel money (excluding plane tickets) on shopping, so that’s why they are treated as important customers.

Yet, thirty years ago tour groups of Japanese tourists would appear at the Paris Mitsukoshi Department Store or the Galeries Lafayette, communicating through interpreters, and making such purchases as ten bottles of Chanel 19 perfume at a time. French people were astonished at the sight. This was well before Chinese “shopping sprees.” The shops were delighted, and it seemed mostly companies on the French side that adroitly arranged the shopping stop-offs. French people did not, however, decide that “Japanese people come to France for shopping.” They saw that all sorts of Japanese people were coming to France, and knew that many carefully looked round museums, and that some also visited the cathedral at Chartres and Romanesque churches in the countryside. Japanese people should also take a slightly more adult view of foreigners and not focus on just one side.

In any case, the wave of shopping sprees are said to have now subsided. Recently, customs checks for returning Chinese tourists have apparently got stricter. Meanwhile, cross-border electronic commerce means that Chinese people are becoming able to shop in Japan over the Internet without even setting foot in the country. It will be fascinating to see how Chinese visitors’ interest in Japan develops and changes.  

Acts of hate?

But, there is something that concerns me. I have touched on this already, but there is a double standard in the way that Japanese people deal with foreigners. When it comes to people from Europe and the United States, Japanese are friendly and kind, and don’t treat them as inferior. But when the tourists are from Asia, Japanese people treat them differently, roughly and without smiling. Japanese people, it seems, haven’t yet lost that old-fashioned desire to be part of Europe, not Asia. Not speaking Chinese or Korean might be one reason, but that’s why it is a good thing that more electronics shops and hotels are employing more people from other Asian countries who speak excellent Japanese.

Even so, some shocking things have happened to those tourists in our country temporarily as guests. Last October, the Osaka outlet of an urban sushi restaurant chain served South Korean tourists sushi filled with large amounts of wasabi: and it became apparent that they had been doing this regularly. This claim only originated on the Internet, but judging by the color photos it wasn’t food that an ordinary person would eat, so I can only assume the intention was to play a trick on these customers.

A worrying thing about this is the recently much discussed issue of hate speech towards non-Japanese. Although an anti-hate speech law was finally passed in May 2016, it was Korean-Japanese who were unjustifiably singled out by groups who made anti-foreigner declarations and staged demonstrations. It is hard to imagine that it was the official policy of the sushi restaurant, but I wonder if when Korean-speaking customers entered the restaurant the sushi chefs thought they were a nuisance and didn’t want to serve them. Even if there was no discrimination at play and they just wanted to see the customers squeal when the wasabi hit, they were serving paying customers so their actions were surely outrageous.

I am not going to explore here why such feelings of hate have spread among some Japanese. But it is an extremely serious matter when those working in tourism and customer service express this hate. It may be that some sort of action needs to be taken: for example, the tourism authorities investigating the sushi restaurant and issuing corrective advice; or using this occasion to make human rights education compulsory for interpreter-guides, or customer service staff in hotels and restaurants.

Notes

1. For the purpose of Ministry of Justice statistics, “Foreign Tourists” refers to short stay visitors to Japan. Business travelers are not included, but those visiting friends and family are. (JNTO homepage).

2. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2016 Tourism White Paper, p. 250. The figure for tourists from the U.K., Germany, and Italy is 14% to 15%.

3. For more details see, Fighting Hate Speech by Arita Yoshifu (Iwanami Shoten, 2013). I would like to point out that anti-foreigner demos where hate speech occurred first took place around the Shin-Okubo area of Tokyo where there are many recent Korean immigrants.

Translated from “Tokushu 1 Ibunka-sesshoku toshiteno Inbaundo: Indaudo to Nihonjin ― Gaikokujin tsuurisuto zodai ni yotte towarerumono (Special Feature 1 Inbound Tourism and Experiencing a Different Culture: Inbound Tourism and Japanese People ―Issues related to the increase in tourists visiting Japan from abroad),” THE TOSHI MONDAI (Municipal Problems), January 2017, pp. 4-9. (Courtesy of The Tokyo Institute for Municipal Research) [January 2017]

Photo: Courtesy of the Japan Guide Association

As an tour guide-interpreter, Hagimura Masayo sometimes spends as long as two weeks traveling around the whole of Japan with foreign visitors, so no-one has more first-hand knowledge of exactly what interests, attracts and impresses tourists. In this article, she taps her rich professional experience to discuss some tourism resources of which Japanese people might not be aware.

Introduction

Hagimura Masayo, President, the Japan Guide Association

When the Japanese government launched its Visit Japan campaign back in 2003, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan each year was only 5.24 million. Ten years later the figure had reached 10 million, and over time it gradually increased. From January to October 2016, more than 20 million people visited Japan. (The exact figure was a record 20,113,000 people, compared to 16,316,000 for the same period in 2015).

As this happens, the amount of work we tour guide-interpreters are asked to do is growing. Although there are differences between those working in different regions, and with different languages, overall we can expect demand to increase in the run-up to the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics.

Meanwhile, internet review sites are becoming more popular, more tourists are making repeat visits to Japan, and the types of tours available to inbound tourists are becoming more diverse. Tourists also require better-quality tour contents, and better and more skilled tour guide-interpreters.

We tour guide-interpreters work more closely with foreign visitors to Japan than anyone else. In this article, I’d like to tap that perspective to ask; what impresses foreign tourists; and what are Japan’s tourism resources when it comes to foreigners?

What is a tour guide-interpreter?

Have you ever seen someone carrying a small flag and guiding foreigners through a sightseeing spot saying, “This way, please!”? This is the job of Japan’s National Licensed Guides. As we are often called tour guide-interpreters, there’s a tendency to assume that we work as interpreters, but there two main differences.

Firstly: the job of an interpreter is to translate the words of a speaker into a different language. They are not permitted to add to or subtract from that content. There is no national qualification for interpreters.

Secondly: tour guide-interpreters serve as guides while speaking a foreign language. A national qualification is necessary.

In addition, tour guide-interpreters fulfil the following three main functions through their work:

1) Acting as a guide for tourists.

2) Acting as a tour-conductor, i.e. managing itineraries and handling attraction and transport tickets.

3) Interpreting (including assistance with foreign language related issues)

Tour guide-interpreters do not just give sight-seeing explanations in a foreign language, they also do the same job as the tour conductors that accompany Japanese group tours, and they do both by themselves. Also, they work right across Japan from Hokkaido to Okinawa.

Although their main functions are 1 and 2 above, in the case of corporate inspection tours or Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, and Events (MICE) etc. they often also interpret. Even during sightseeing tours, there are often occasions when they interpret, say for maiko trainee geisha (See photos 1, 2, and 3).

①	②	③
Photos: Courtesy of the Japan Guide Association

From face-masks to short-handled brooms: questions from foreign visitors

But when foreign visitors take tours in Japan, what are they interested in, and what sort of questions do they usually ask? The below are examples of some common questions posed to tour guide-interpreters, and just a few of the unexpected questions we get. Some even have the professionals scratching their heads!

1) (Pointing at a Japanese person) Why is that person wearing a mask?

2) (To the tour guide-interpreter) What’s your religion? Note: this would be an unthinkable question for one Japanese person living in Japan       to ask another.

3) Why don’t Japanese people kiss when they greet each other?

4) Where can I meet a geisha? Note: some foreigners tend to assume that all Japanese women wearing kimono are geisha. Others think that geisha are prostitutes; perhaps from novels they have read.

5) Why do Japanese people use brooms with short handles?

6) How on earth does one eat white rice with chopsticks?

7) Who in the world cleans those 50cm gaps between buildings? Why don’t they just join the buildings together?

8) Why do young Japanese women walk with their toes turned inwards? Note: foreigners are very intrigued by this.

9) Why don’t restaurants use paper napkins? Note: visitors are at a complete loss as to what to do without a paper napkin.

10) Why do Japanese people take off their shoes?      

11) The Japanese manji symbol of temples looks like a German swastika. Are they connected?

12) Why are there so many overhead cables in Japan? Wouldn’t the view be improved without them?

13) What should one do if an earthquake occurs?

The most common question is number one, about masks. Visitors from Europe and America in particular see masks as something worn by those with infectious disease. This is often the first question they think to ask when they come to Japan.

Regarding question number 12), I once jokingly answered that Japan has a lot of crows and pigeons, and they need somewhere to rest. After that I checked with an architect relative so that I had an answer.

Number 13 is a question that people often ask after they arrive in Japan. For people who live in countries without earthquakes, it is a serious question.

Finding tourism resources in surprising Japanese realities and customs

But when foreign tourists come to Japan, what is it in particular that interests them? There are differences depending on country, generation, and gender, but the below are typical examples of what surprises and impresses foreign tourists, according to my own experience. These unassuming things and objects, both tangible and intangible, are tourism resources that can surprise and impress visitors.

1) That elementary school children themselves clean their school each day, and that cleaners aren’t employed. Foreigners think they could learn from this part of our education system.

2) That white rice doesn’t taste of anything. Why eat something with no taste?

3) That most narrow streets and roads don’t have names. How is the mail delivered?

4) Tourists are impressed by high-tech Japanese toilets. Some want to buy them to take home.

5) That there is no custom of tipping in Japan.

6) That elementary school children travel to school by themselves without their parents or guardians. Isn’t it dangerous?

7) That Japan has no “ladies first” tradition; that, in fact, men traditionally come first.

8) That different products don’t differ in price greatly depending on the region of Japan.

9) The recycling is so advanced, and that household garbage must be carefully separated into different materials.

10) That even in high-tech Japan many areas do not have free Wi-Fi, and that its availability is limited.

11) That the Japanese language uses two types of phonetic alphabet (kana) alongside more than 2,000 ideographs, and that these are used daily in combination. What are the inside of Japanese people’s heads like? (They must be superhuman).

12) That Japanese people are always bowing, even on the telephone.

13) That Japanese people slurp as they consume soup or noodles. This is an unpleasant noise to people from Europe or America.

14) That there are so many groups of children on school trips and post-graduation trips. That their behavior and manners are so good.

15) That wives look after the household finances in Japan, not husbands.

16) That so many people commit suicide. They are incredibly surprised that almost 30,000 people kill themselves in Japan each year.

17) That Japan still has the death penalty. (I am often asked how they are killed, but I reply that as a Japanese person I have not considered that question.)

18) That wedding ceremonies are so quiet that people seem sad during what ought to be a happy occasion.

19) That Japanese people eat horse meat. In particular, foreign tourists can’t believe it is eaten raw.

Foreign visitors are immediately impressed at the lack of garbage at the road sides. It is simply amazing to them, but I’ve rarely just been asked, “Why isn’t there any litter?” On the other hand, they often ask, “Why aren’t there any garbage pails?” “Where do Japanese people throw away their trash?” or “There aren’t any garbage pails, so why isn’t there any litter?” When I reply that in Singapore there are fines for dropping litter but in Japan generally that’s not the case, they are even more surprised. Although some local authorities have local ordinances forbidding litter-dropping, and there are national laws that cover the disposal of waste, no-one will be fined for dropping a chewing gum wrapper. On the other hand, when I ask them, “Is it good for the streets to be clean?” of course they answer, “Yes.” Also, when I ask them why, in that case, people drop litter in their country, they might struggle for an answer, then eventually reply, “That’s just what our country is like. Education in Japan is wonderful.”

Recently discovered tourism resources in sightseeing areas

There are many sightseeing areas that were unknown to foreign tourists before, but which began to receive attention as inbound tourism grew, and which are now famous and known by everyone. We can expect other “hidden” sighting-seeing areas in the regions to become noticed in the future. Some examples:

1) The snow monkeys of Nagano Prefecture. Japanese macaques that bathe in hot springs in midwinter.

2) The ski resorts of Niseko. Popular with visitors from Australia and elsewhere who are in a similar time-zone and can visit during their summer.

3) Historic post towns on the Kiso Road and elsewhere. Traditional Japanese streets and houses.

4) The Tsukiji fish market. The tuna auctions are very popular, and visitors have never seen most of the seafood at the market before.

5) The “scramble” crossing at Shibuya. Foreigners have never seen anything like it in any other country.

6) Shibuya’s Hachiko statue. After seeing the movie Hachi: A Dog’s Tale. (People are influenced by movies in other ways).

Surprising and impressive things in sight-seeing areas
– What people get from Japan

Of course, we want people to be impressed by the places they visit as tourists. Among these “exciting” things there are unpredicted and unexpected “surprises” and “impressive things”. And these include many things not covered on Facebook or in the guidebooks they buy back home. It’s usual for guidebooks to have photos of Mount Fuji beautifully covered in snow, but during the season when most tourists actually visit Mount Fuji there’s no snow, which can be rather a shock.

In fact, it is these kinds of realities that are impressive to visitors who have spent time and money on coming to Japan from afar. That is the value of travel. We only know about these things with hindsight, and we can’t promote all of them beforehand, but we can still call them all tourism resources.

Here are some examples:

1) Mount Fuji without snow. Tourists expect Mount Fuji to be white. Souvenirs and woodblock prints show Mount Fuji with snow, but the mountain has no snow in summer.

2) The dense forest surrounding Mount Fuji is famous for suicides. This is a negative fact that is not included in guidebooks.

3) Mount Fuji is littered with a large amount of waste materials. This is another negative fact that is not included in guidebooks.

4) That people bathe in hot springs naked without swimming costumes in Japan. Guidebooks usually only show people wrapped in towels. (Foreign visitors ask if Japanese people aren’t embarrassed to be seen naked.)

5) The incredibly high prices of wagyu beef or fruit give as gifts.

6) Beautifully designed manhole covers.

When it comes to number two and three, you might wonder why anyone would talk about such dark topics when tourists have travelled to see beautiful Mount Fuji. I’m sure many of my fellow tour guide-interpreters don’t cover these topics on their Mount Fuji tours, but I always do my best to discuss them. I warn foreign tourists beforehand that, although these things are a great source of shame to Japan, there is much that is not included in the guidebooks, and that you can’t learn about it until you actually visit Japan. I say that I want them to know about the real Japan: both good and bad.

Many Japanese wouldn’t have any idea about what tourists mean by the manholes in number six. Manhole covers over sewers under the street often have attractive designs related to the local area. Those of us who live in Japan probably don’t notice them, but visitors often remark on how attractive they are.

There are surprisingly many unknown things and objects

Even among dedicated Japanophile foreign visitors who carefully read guidebooks and other material before they come to Japan, there are still surprisingly many things they don’t know about.

These include: Shinto and shrines; Asian-style toilets (Rather unexpected. Visitors take the guide to the toilet, and point at it, saying, “What on earth is this? What do you use it for?”); shochu (a clear Japanese spirit; shabu-shabu (thin meat boiled in water); restaurants where customers sit around iron hot-plates set in the tables; iced-coffee (Rather unexpected. Visitors say that coffee should be drunk hot.); typically having to pay at a till rather than at the table in cafes and restaurants; not being able to talk on cellphones in public places or on public transport (if guides don’t tell them they won’t realize for the duration of their trip); kneeling or sitting on tatami-mat floors due to the traditional lack of chairs in Japanese rooms; Japanese people sleeping on futons (i.e. beds very close to the ground).

Things tourists enjoy: food and drink

It is now over three years since Japanese washoku cuisine was added to UNESCO’s Intangible Cultural Heritage list in 2013. Washoku is popular around the world, and ever more foreigners are visiting Japan to eat washoku in its place of origin. Tourists tell me that, “I’ve come to Japan so I want to eat Japanese food.” These dishes include wagyu beef, fugu blowfish (famous for its poison), Japanese sweets, and ramen noodles. Japanese wagyu is known abroad, but usually only the Kobe beef brand. Also, while its well-known that Japan hunts whales, it doesn’t see that many people want to eat whale meat.

Japanese people themselves are a tourist resource

It is not just things and objects that can impress foreign tourists; so can the Japanese people they come into direct contact with; for example, the way guides, hotel staff, and shop assistants work and serve customers.

One example is how a guide ensures a large group can quickly and smoothly board the reserved seating carriage of a bullet train. The train only stops on the platform for about one minute, and the guide is desperate to make sure no one gets left behind, so they have to be a little ingenious.

The guide divides the group into two and has them wait in line according to the order of their seats at the two spots where the carriage doors will halt. Each traveler is given a bullet train ticket on which their seat number has been marked in large letters with a thick felt-tip pen in their language. There two groups are separated by color: a red group (who board at the closest door) and a blue group (who board at the furthest door). If the travelers follow the guide’s instructions and use this method to get on the train, they will find that the boarding order is properly determined beforehand, that no-one needs to hurry, and that they can smoothly and happily reach their seats. The method is much appreciated.

Another example was when tourists came back to their bus, which was waiting in the car park of a sightseeing attraction, and found the driver carefully polishing the hubcaps of the bus with a cloth. They said it was amazing, and that in their country people wouldn’t work like that when no-one is watching. They were very impressed and took photos of the driver.

Japanese people may take these things for granted, but tourists praise these ways of working, thinking, and approaching our jobs. You may remember how in 2014, during the soccer World Cup in Rio de Janeiro, Japanese supporters decided by themselves to clean up garbage in the stadium. They were applauded by the world’s media and the Japanese fans received an official thank you letter from the director of the Rio de Janeiro State Environmental Agency.

We tour guide-interpreters spend longer with clients than anyone else living in Japan. On a long tour we might spend two weeks traveling around Japan with visitors, so when they return home they will likely remember their guide as a “typical” Japanese person. In that sense, the way we work, the quality of the service we offer, how we deal with them as people, and the totality of our hospitality might be considered a tourism resource that represents Japan.

On the other hand… some problems

While the industry can be pleased at increase in inbound tourism, there are also some problems. For example:

1) Foreigners see Japan as lagging behind other countries in some respects.

– The availability of Wi-Fi in public spaces is limited.

– English is sometimes not understood, even in hotels and restaurants in tourist areas.

– Everything often has to be booked in advance, and there is a lack of flexibility.

– There still isn’t much English signage at sightseeing facilities or on public transport.

– There are few Western-style toilets.

2) Due to the general increase in visitors from abroad, there have been some negative effects for inbound tourists themselves.

– Toilets in sightseeing areas visited by more foreigners are dirty. People from some countries do not flush toilet paper, or make a mess when they use the toilet.

Figure 1
Source: Japan Tourism Agency. Survey of tour guide-interpreter employment conditions (from October to November 2013)

Issues for the future

As we have seen, there are various things and objects that impress foreign tourists when they see them, i.e. which can become tourism resources; and we can expect the number to grow. On the other hand, Japan faces many distinct issues.

1) Full provision of Wi-Fi

2) Communication of information and evacuation instructions to foreigners in the event of an earthquake disaster. Although the Tourism Agency has taken measures such as releasing a disaster prevention app for foreigners, issues remains over the communication of information and accurate evacuation instructions in an emergency to foreigners who don’t understand Japanese. Short-term foreign visitors to Japan don’t have opportunities either to listen to explanations or take part in evacuation training.

3) The promotion of Japan to children and younger generations. Japan is expensive and geographically distant for people in countries outside Asia, Japan is. But if someone gets a positive impression of Japan when they are young, however, we can expect Japan to feature in their future life plans. We’d like them to aspire to learn Japanese, or one day come to Japan to study, etc.

4) Assuring a sufficient number of tour guide-interpreters (correcting language and geographical imbalances). Although there are more than 19,000 registered tour guide-interpreters across Japan, there are significant imbalances in their working languages, and where they guide and live. Although there are 10 registered languages, almost 70% of guides use English, while Portuguese and Thai are only spoken by less than 1% of tour guide-interpreters: a huge gap. Meanwhile, guides are concentrated in the urban areas around Tokyo and Kyoto and Osaka (see figure 1).

Because of this, when cruise ships dock in regional ports there is a temporary shortage of tour guide-interpreters for sightseeing tours. It is then expensive because guides speaking less common languages have to travel from all over Japan for each ICT (Inclusive Conducted Tour. An inclusive tour with tour conductor). That is then reflected in the customer’s vacation costs.

Things that foreigners want to do on their next trip to Japan

What do visitors to Japan from abroad who might come again want to do on their next trip? The JNTO created a survey based on the Japan Tourism Agency’s 2015 survey into consumption trends by foreign visitors to Japan. By looking at the difference between “Things that tourists from overseas planning to visit Japan hope to do)” and “Things that tourists from overseas hope to do on their next visit to Japan” we can answer that question. These are the main things tourists are even more keen to do should they visit Japan again (all countries).

– Bathe at a hot spring (Before their visit 34.6%, and after their visit 45.2%; an increase of 10.6%)

– Viewing stage performances (Before their visit 4.2%, and after their visit 12.7%; an increase of 8.5%)

– Viewing sports (Before their visit 2.7%, and after their visit 9.8%; an increase of 7.1%)

Tour guide-interpreters working on the ground will understand these results. On their first visit to Japan, tourists tend to only visit the standard sightseeing spots. Before they come they might not be particularly interested in a typical Japanese pleasure such as bathing at an onsen. But once they have experienced and enjoyed it, many want to do it again the next time. Even if people want to see sumo, some visit at a time when there are no sumo tournaments. Likewise, they might not have a chance to leisurely watch kabuki and other performances, so they probably hope to do that the next visit. (See figure 2 and 3).

Conclusion

Sometimes the things that pass unnoticed by Japanese people every day can be tourism resources, and once people visit Japan, they discover tourism resources that impress them and which they hope to experience on future trips. The Japan Tourism Agency’s marketing slogan is Japan, Endless Discovery. In line with that, we should work together to provide an environment in Japan suitable for foreign visitors, and develop new tourism resources that will continue to excite and impress.

Translated from “Tokushu 1 Ibunka-sesshoku toshiteno Inbaundo: Naniga Honichi-gaikokujin ni ‘Kando’ wo ataeruka ― Gaikokujin ryokosha ni nihon no bunka, shakai wo tstaerukoto (Special Feature 1 Inbound Tourism and Experiencing a Different Culture: What Impresses Foreign Tourists When They Come to Japan? ― Explaining Japanese society and culture to foreign tourists),” THE TOSHI MONDAI (Municipal Problems), January 2017, pp. 43–51. (Courtesy of The Tokyo Institute for Municipal Research) [January 2017]

Mt. Daisen, Tottori Prefecture

Motani Kosuke, Chief Senior Economist, The Japan Research Institute, Ltd. vs Hirai Shinji, Governor, Tottori Prefecture

Tottori, a Unique Countryside

Motani Kosuke: I read your book, Chiisakutemo Kateru (You Can Win Even if You Are Small). I think this book is like the novel, Shitamachi Roketto (Rockets of an Old Commercial District) by Mr. Ikeido Jun. It’s the story of a young man who grew up in Tokyo and migrated to Tottori. In the story, the protagonist leaves a large company, finds a job at a second-tier company and achieves success as a hired business manager with his strenuous efforts.

Hirai Shinji: Thank you, Mr. Motani. I’ve asked you for help in many ways, including a visit to a symposium held in our prefecture and guidance with our prefectural employees, because I really wanted to try what you called the capitalism of the satoyama woodlands in Tottori. It is just my interpretation, but what you intended to say was that the satoyama woodlands have things like water, food and energy that are absent in urban areas, and there are treasures and a new economy that is different from the monetary economy in the woodlands. We have tried to learn how we can achieve this kind of capitalism on our own terms.

Motani: Tottori Prefecture has a high capacity for gathering information. From way back, your prefecture has done many things before the rest of the country. In the field of ecotourism, Mt. Daisen in Tottori is one of the most advanced areas in Japan. Chizucho is also a Japanese pioneer in its attempts to bring people to the satoyama woodlands. Additionally, Tottori Prefecture has a public university devoted to environmental studies. I highly regard the fact that your prefecture established this university where students interested in environmental issues gather from all over Japan in the midst of the satoyama woodland.

View from the top of Mt. Daisen. The mountain is located in the Daisen-Oki National Park

Hirai: I think what Mr. Motani predicted is beginning to come to fruition. Our ways of thinking are changing considerably from old notions such as a monetary economy and the city-centered idea of bowing to the inevitable. I think Tottori Prefecture may be able to create a new wave in Japan by developing in this manner.

Motani: I found more convincing points outside of your book because I have visited Tottori many times myself. But I feel that Tottori is not well-known to most people in Japan. They just think of your prefecture as the average countryside.

Hirai: Tottori is not an average place. It’s a unique countryside.

Motani: That’s true. [Motani laughs.]

Hirai: I think the countryside in Japan has been too modest up to this point. I would like to reverse the traditional ideas of giving up because the scale is too small and losing hope because the area is not urban. In fact, resources are everywhere. They are in our mountains and on our beaches. There was a person who recently moved to Tottori Prefecture and found a forestry job because he wanted to go surfing regularly. In the summer, this person engages in forestry work and goes surfing in Tottori. In the winter, he takes advantage of the winter break and travels to the southern hemisphere for surfing. Such an idea is completely different from earning money by selling stocks and managing assets in a city.

Motani: People in Japan often say that the United States is money-centric, but it’s not that way for many people and regions there. Let me share this episode from my days at the University of California at San Diego. I asked my classmate, “Where is our professor?” The classmate replied, “He’s surfing over there. Hold on.” Many Americans are really enjoying the nature in their region. I think the southern tip of the state of New York is the only part of the United States that has an environment like Tokyo.

Hirai: I think the social structure in Japan has become distorted. Elderly people who continued to work until retirement age have a large savings. They leave that savings to their children as a legacy without spending it. People in Japan say structural social security reforms are necessary, but I truly believe we can give happiness a more balanced shape by thinking more about how to spend money and reconsidering the trade-off relationship between working, saving money and spending time on personal happiness. I think people in San Diego are doing that already. But people find it difficult to do the same thing in Tokyo. That’s why they are beginning to discover new advantages in the countryside.

Motani: Maintaining a balance is essential. But too many people go too far in their arguments. For example, they suddenly say, “There are no jobs in the countryside.” But I think there are jobs. In, my opinion, it’s manpower that is in short supply.

Hirai: Employment is spreading. The effective ratio of job vacancies to job applicants in Tottori Prefecture has surpassed 1.4 times.

Motani: That’s a serious manpower shortage.

Hirai: The ratio used to be 0.7 times or so. It has doubled. The ratio of job openings for applicants for permanent staff member positions also reached the highest level ever, above 0.8 times. Tokyo may be the place to be if you want to become a billionaire. But I think the countryside is the choice for those who seek a certain amount of money and a lot of happiness. As a matter of fact, trends are shifting. For example, about 20 percent of respondents living in urban areas expressed their desire to move when asked if they wished to move to a farming, mountain or fishing village in a survey that was conducted by the Cabinet Office 10 years ago. More than 30 percent of urban respondents choose the same answer in response to the same survey question today. The number of urbanites interested in moving to the countryside has been growing steadily. Around the time when I became the prefectural governor, people said that only senior citizens would come to Tottori, even if we campaigned for people to move to Tottori.

Motani: That part of your book was a true eye-opener for me. I didn’t know that the staff members in your prefectural government in those days were convinced that only elderly people would come from urban areas to Tottori.

Hirai: That’s right. There was a belief that said we should not encourage moving because the arrival of elderly people would create a financial burden. However, it turned out that moving centered on people in their 20s and 30s. I can tell you this based on the behavior of my own children, but these people belong to a generation of workers who will not merely toil away. They want to live more independently, instead of competing with others. That’s their way of thinking. Furthermore, they are looking for a better environment for raising their children. The countryside offers a better environment for raising children.

More Good Points of Japan Remain in the Countryside

Motani: Mr. Hirai, you were born in Kanda, Tokyo, older than me, and on the elite track. I find it significant for someone like you to say that. One of my own children entered a university in the countryside. I’m thinking that it would be nice if my other children go to the countryside, too. I’m thinking this way because there is no happiness or victory at the end of the fierce competition to get into a good school and a good company. Almost everyone at good companies ends up with a temporary transfer to another company midway through their career. Presidents and others who remain at their companies until the very end do not look happy at all. I feel that the idea of going to a city and surviving in a large Japanese organization is admirable may be a collective illusion. Becoming a winner in that way has no international currency. That winner will become a nobody without any work skills after retirement, too.

Hirai: I feel that things used be OK that way. But now I think I can understand very well why people come to Japan for sightseeing from countries like China and Singapore, where society is becoming more and more competitive. Japan offers those visitors something that their own countries are beginning to lose. I feel that the importance attached to the countryside is that missing something.

Motani: The economic development of Japan did not go as far as to destroy its countryside completely. Tottori Prefecture made an abandoned sector profitable ahead of other prefectures. Tottori is precisely the top runner in a group that is running one lap behind. Tottori is not the average countryside. The countryside comes in many varieties, but I think few prefectures in Japan chose to launch primary industry brands and develop them into a six-order industry (in which members of primary industries take charge of processing and sales) at a stage as early as Tottori.

Going back to the environment for raising children, as I mentioned earlier, I think it was also terrific for Tottori Prefecture to establish a structure for supporting nurseries without any classroom building or fixed program, known as Mori-no Yochien (Forest Kindergartens). The numbers of Mori-no Yochien are increasing all over Japan, but an overwhelming majority of local governments are instructing the administrators of these facilities to choose their registration status from either yochien (kindergartens) or hoikuen (day nurseries). By extending such instructions, they are asking Mori-no Yochien operators to build a classroom building. But Tottori Prefecture is making sure that its support goes to Mori-no Yochien, too, accepting their status as facilities that are neither yochien nor hoikuen. In this case, the local government is correcting the bureaucratic sectionalism of the central government.

As a matter of fact, a Mori-no Yochien local mother had independently created one in in another prefecture and received the compulsory instruction from the town authorities to choose the facility status of yochien. This instruction left the mother with no choice but to build a classroom building. I’m thinking about making a donation to her myself, because the mother has no money for the facility construction. I saw how Mori-no Yochien was received without a classroom building in her prefecture and realized how wonderful it would be if those authorities dealt with that case in the same way as Tottori Prefecture.

Hirai: Ways of doing things differ from one prefecture to another. In Tottori Prefecture, we are performing effectiveness measurements on children at Mori-no Yochien through a joint research project with Tottori University. We can tell from this project that Mori-no Yochien are properly developing their spirit of cooperation, physical strength and intelligence. We are planning to conduct a follow-up study on elementary school pupils who attended Mori-no Yochien in the future.

Branding Matsuba Crabs

 Motani: I’d like to talk about the fishing industry, too. I thought matsuba crabs must be expensive like echizen crabs, because they are famous. But I realized matsuba crabs are not that costly.

Hirai: They are both zuwai gani (snow crabs). The same crabs are called matsuba crabs in the western region down to the San-in area. They are called taiza crabs in Kyoto Prefecture and echizen crabs in Fukui Prefecture, respectively. Matsuba crabs in Tottori are sold for prices at about half the cost of echizen crabs. Crabs in Fukui taste delicious for sure, but they are the same crabs and there is such a big gap in prices.

Motani: The gap comes from how the crabs are sold, doesn’t it?

Hirai: If anything, people in the San-in area were poor salespeople. Thinking that way, I changed the name we use for marketing, from Tottori Prefecture to Kanitori (Crab-Catching) Prefecture. We also decided to call the highest rank of matsuba crabs landed in Tottori Prefecture itsukiboshi (five shining stars).

Motani: When I travel around Japan, people all over tell me that the foods from their area are delicious, but inexpensive because they are unknown in urban areas. The people say this boisterously and proudly, but I think such statements reflect their self-derision and lack of motivation, instead of pride. I think people in local areas should strengthen their brands and increase their market shares in the same way as Tottori Prefecture.

Hirai: We live in an age when we sell our products to customers not only in Japan but also all over the world. We must develop our brands skillfully to accomplish this.

Motani: What you said reminds me of agriculture. In Japan, Tottori Prefecture and Yamagata Prefecture have focused on the cultivation of fruit from the early stages.

Hirai: Compared with the Hokuriku and Tohoku regions, where rice remains the overwhelming crop, Tottori has many types of garden produce and livestock products because the prefecture has pursued agricultural reforms. We have worked on developing many local specialties such as watermelons and Japanese pears.

Motani: Looking at the population composition by industry in the census, agriculture has the most elderly workers out of any industry in Japan. More than half of the people engaged in farming are 60 years old or older in many parts of the country. I think Tottori is a prefecture where the generational change is advancing relatively quickly with the employment of young people.

Hirai: Things began to move in a favorable direction four or five years ago. However, unsurprisingly, it’s difficult to maintain an agricultural population.

Motani: Currently more than half of the people engaged in farming are 60 years old or older. There is no way to prevent the farming population from shrinking with their retirement. The question is whether the population pyramid for agriculture has a bulge in the lower age bracket or not. If the pyramid has such a bulge, the pattern of change for the agricultural population will shift from a decrease to an increase one of these days.

Hirai: The number of young people doesn’t need to be that large. Agriculture changes when a certain number of people arrive and form a core.

Motani: You’re saying that newcomers and second- and third-generation farmers will create innovations and increase additional values. Am I right?

Hirai: There is a dairy cooperative called Daisen Nyugyo in Tottori. This cooperative is producing high-quality milk. Ice cream made by Daisen Nyugyo has been selling explosively at an upmarket department store in South Korea, known as Shinsegae.

Motani: Daisen Nyugyou is an advanced example of the globalization of a six-order industry, isn’t it? I think tourism is another field where Tottori Prefecture is advanced, from the viewpoint of globalization. Mt. Daisen is a famous peak, but it’s not well known to people in Tokyo. It’s been quite a long time since a large number of tourists began visiting this mountain from South Korea on mountain-climbing tours.

Hirai: I think the opening of a ferry route played a big part in that development.

Motani: Montbell, an operator of brand name outdoor equipment stores, opened its Daisen branch in a location where there is no other store. As it turned out, the branch achieved good sales.

Hirai: I understand that was the first store Montbell opened in the mountains. I heard that people within the company had a big discussion over whether or not a store established in such a location could achieve decent sales. But a sufficient number of people are shopping at this store daily, including people from abroad. With the Daisen branch as a model, Montbell began setting up stores on other mountains.

Motani: Montbell began establishing stores in resort areas, too. The company’s president told me that the success of the Daisen store surprised him, too.

Tottori Sand Dunes

Hirai: Resources in large cities and those in the countryside are different. Making the most of them, which direction to take must be different in large cities and the countryside, too. The Pokémon GO game shows that.

Motani: I thought the declaration of the Tottori sand dunes as a Pokémon GO Free Zone was a good idea. It made people playing the Pokémon GO game want to visit the Tottori sand dunes.

Hirai: Sales at a souvenir shop right outside the Tottori sand dunes rose about 37% just a month or so after we issued the declaration. To tell you the truth, the tourism industry is declining rapidly in the countryside as a result of decreasing sightseeing bus services. The sales growth of more than 30% is a miracle under such circumstances. People at that souvenir shop are rejoicing over the special Pokémon boom.

Motani: It’s a great achievement. I also admire your decision to adopt sales expansion as an indicator. Regular politicians and administrators talk about the number of increased customers. But the number of customers means nothing if they don’t spend a single yen. What’s more, you incorporated warnings for heatstroke and the protection of the natural environment into the declaration, and transmitted the image that Tottori is a place for enjoying Pokémon GO, in other words, it’s not a lawless zone, very well.

Hirai: The positive current of concerted public-private initiatives has started in a place a little out of the way. The Montbell store discussed just a while ago and a recently launched project for renewing a town at the starting point for a pilgrimage to Mt. Daisen demonstrate this.

The countryside taking the leadership

Motani: Your work, Chiisakutemo Kateru, is a book that not only politicians and administrators in the countryside but also their counterparts in the central government should read. A prefecture with the size of an ordinance-designated city called Tottori is doing what the national government has been unable to do ahead of others, with its top leader clearly articulating his intentions. I think office workers in your prefecture are having a hard time, but they are working out the details of those issues and persuading assembly members and all other stakeholders to do things that should be done across Japan ahead of others.

Hirai: I feel that might be the way forward for Japan. I think no reform will occur in Japan unless those of us in the countryside take the leadership and try to change the way things are in this country.

Motani: The establishment of a prefectural ordinance recognizing sign language as a form of language is an example in that respect. People who have involved themselves in politics with the intention to make changes must realize the harmful effects that the unofficial status of sign language has caused for a long time. Probably those who are lionized in the mass media do not realize its harmful effects. Or they know of them, but take no action because such a reform will be unpopular. In my opinion, people like that are not reformers.

Hirai: Reforms must start locally after all.

Motani: What people in our society call reforms have an aspect that resembles the story of Mito Komon, in which good prevails over evil, to describe it nicely, or authorities are attacked for amusement to put it in a bad way. I think genuine reforms mean we create something by ourselves as concerned parties or we enable things that should be done, instead of criticizing something. I think the revision of our prefectural ordinance for controlling dangerous drugs was precisely such a reform.

Hirai: Small entities can do those things better than large ones. They include small and medium enterprises, and small local governments. Talks about generalizations start when an experiment at those entities is successful.

Motani: To tell you the truth, I see your face quite often in places outside of Tottori. I always see you eating something in a photo report on a meeting about people involved in regional development where someone from Tottori gives an oral presentation on a self-organized event that drew dozens of people. The presenter happily describes the photo, saying that is our governor. I’ve experienced that at several meetings.

Hirai: [Hirai laughs without commenting.]

Motani: I think that’s important, though. You are encouraging people who are trying hard by showing up at those modest events, however brief your attendance might be. You just talked about small entities. Tottori is certainly a small prefecture with a population of 600,000. Is it the combination of the small number of residents and the authorities working in the prefecture that is enabling Tottori to do those things?

Hirai: I think so. Communication is impossible when the population is at the level of 10 million or five million. I can go and meet people trying hard in a community with 500,000 or 600,000 people. Those people can speak to me, too. I believe there is a right size for democracy. Larger is not better.

Motani: It may be better to divide the whole nation into smaller prefectures with a population of 500,000 or 600,000 each.

Hirai: As a matter of fact, democracy is easier to practice when the unit is smaller. An area with the size of Setagaya Ward (with a population of about 890,000) is probably the limit in that respect. I believe regional revitalization and the dynamic engagement of all citizens in the true sense of the word will start at the grassroots level. People in large cities are all aware of the limits they have reached. But they have not been able to take the first step. I think that’s the state of Japan today. A breakthrough has just begun.

Translated from “Taidan: Nihonichi Jinko no sukunai Tottoriken no Chosen ― Demokurashii niwa Tekiseikibo ga aru (Dialogue: Challenge by Tottori, the Least Populous Prefecture in Japan ― There is a Right Size for Democracy),” Chuokoron, November 2016, pp. 124-131. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [November 2016]

Kinosaki hot-spring district, Toyooka City, Hyogo Prefecture

The effective opening-to-application ratio in March 2017 was 1.45, a high value for the first time in 26 years and 4 months since November 1990. If the present situation continues, Japan may fall into bankruptcy due to the shortage of workers. The time has come when we should seriously consider the role of foreigners as people who support Japanese economic society and local communities.

Isoyama Tomoyuki, Business Journalist

The Kinosaki Hot Spring is located close to the spot where the Maruyama River flows into the Sea of Japan in Toyooka City, Hyogo Prefecture. The hot spring resort, which is known for the novel Kinosaki ni te by Shiga Naoya, features lines of wooden hot spring inns along the Otani River, which has willow trees lining its banks. The area exudes a unique atmosphere.

In the last few years there has been an increase in the number of foreign tourists who want to enjoy this Japanese atmosphere, as well as Japanese tourists. 40,000 foreign tourists now come to the area every year, comprising more than 5% of all tourists.

The biggest problem faced by inns in Kinosaki Hot Spring is the shortage of workers. Guest room attendants and cooking supporters are in short supply. According to a questionnaire conducted by the Inn Business Union, 77% of 35 inns answered that they were short of guest room attendants. This revealed that 43% of inns halt sales due to the shortage of workers, even if they have vacant rooms.

President Nishimura Soichiro of Nishimuraya, a long-established inn, says with a sense of crisis, “We recruit university graduates from tourism departments around the country. But it is not enough. A particularly serious problem is the fact that guestroom attendants are rapidly growing older. If this situation continues, we will soon be unable to manage.”

Inn circles in Kinosaki have expectations for the foreign workforce. However, inn guestroom attendants are not included in the conventional framework, such as skill training. Last year, they began accepting trainees from Vietnam as a pilot test in the area of daily meals. In addition, Yunomachi-Kinosaki, a company in Kinosaki Hot Spring, is playing a central role by beginning to accept Taiwanese and Indonesian students for internships. Four students will come in April this year, and another ten will come in June. They will stay for six months to a year and work at inns in the form of training based on the certification of school credits. They are taking preventive measures in the form of training.

The Japanese government is keen to increase foreign tourist numbers. More than 24 million foreign tourists came to Japan in 2016, and the government aims to reach 40 million foreign tourists by 2020. This is an expansion of inbound tourists, and it is essential to develop and expand inns and hotels for this purpose. However, the inn industry is afflicted by the shortage of workers. Nishimura, who was appointed as the Director of the Nationwide Inn and Hotel Life Hygiene Union Association in April this year, visits Diet members and lobbies them to lift the ban on foreign workers for the inn industry.

The government is attempting to use special national strategic areas to achieve a breakthrough. A revised bill that has already been approved at a Cabinet meeting aims to establish a new framework for accepting foreigners who will be Cool Japan human resources as employees. This may enable foreign workers who pick up Japanese traditions by working at inns and convey them to foreign countries and who convey Japanese culture to foreign tourists from foreign countries through inns to acquire working visas in special national strategic areas. Because Kinosaki is located in Hyogo prefecture, which has already been designated as a special national strategic area, it will utilize the special national strategic area to accept foreigners in cooperation with the prefectural government and the Toyooka City government.

In the situation where the shortage of workers is as serious as it was during the period of the bubble economy, it is imminently necessary to accept foreigners as workers. In a statement in the Diet, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo repeated that the government would not adopt the so-called immigration policy, and this stance constitutes the core of the current government policy.

There are two reasons why the government has maintained the policy of not accepting unskilled workers. One reason is that they will deprive the Japanese of employment. The other reason is that if Japan accepts foreigners as unskilled workers, it may degrade the quality of the foreigners who will come to Japan.

In fact, however, in terms of the former, Japan is short of workers purely as a result of employing Japanese. As a result, foreigners will not deprive the Japanese of employment. The latter is a matter of how to build a system for accepting foreigners. Current illegal stays and the situation where foreigners work for different purposes degrade quality.

Many convenient methods were used to circumvent the government policy of not accepting unskilled workers. A major example of this is skill trainers. Under the slogan of transferring Japanese techniques to foreign countries, foreigners were used as unskilled workers at factories and farms that were no longer able to be managed by the Japanese. It is the official slogan of foreign students that has been used frequently in recent years.

But this arbitrary use of unofficial and official slogans may be the cause of problems in the future. Sakaiya Taichi, Cabinet Secretariat advisor and ex-Economic Planning Agency Director-General, repeatedly appealed for the necessity to lift a ban on immigration at government meetings. He says that the arbitrary use of unofficial and official slogans is dangerous. Even if foreigners come to Japan with a good image of the country, they will see the so-called 3D—demanding, dangerous and dirty work—in the workplace and will get to know the reality of foreigners being forced to do such work. Sakaiya says, “Young foreigners who return to their home countries after experiencing the negative aspects of Japan will never have a positive impression of Japan, and will dislike Japan.”

Kunimatsu Takaji, ex-National Police Agency Director and Swiss ambassador, says, “The Japanese government should adopt a clear policy of accepting settled foreigners who will live in Japan for many years.” Through the Outlook Foundation, of which Kunimatsu is Chairman, he drew up policy recommendations on accepting settled foreigners, and lobbies the government to adopt this policy. By the second policy recommendations that he formulated at the end of 2016, he put forward the abovementioned five points.

Kunimatsu says, “Even if Japan accepts foreigners as workers, they will start living in Japan as soon as they enter the country. The government should construct a proper system as soon as possible so that foreigners who come to Japan can be assimilated into Japan as residents and play a role in supporting Japanese society.”

That is, Kunimatsu argues that it is a serious problem that Japan allows foreigners to enter the country by using convenient methods merely to make up for the shortage of workers and paying attention to them solely as workers.

A team led by Kunimatsu visited government organizations in charge with its written recommendations. On December 20 last year, they visited Shiozaki Yasuhisa, the Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare. Minister Shiozaki asked Kunimatsu why he, who used to be a national police agency official, was keen to accept foreigners. Considering the frequently mentioned argument that accepting more foreigners will cause public disorder, Minister Shiozaki thought that police officials would be opposed to accepting immigrants.

Kunimatsu says that he puts forward accepting foreigners from a personal perspective. If the current mass influx of foreigners gradually continues, however, it will affect the police officers who work onsite. If Japan allows foreigners to stay in the country illegally and work on the basis of visas for different purposes, it will cause an infestation of troublesome foreigners, which will result in public disorder.

Germany introduced a mass Turkish workforce from the 1960s to the 1970s. These workers, who were called “Gastarbeiter” (guest workers), became concentrated in German urban areas, formed Turkish communities and caused serious social unrest in the country. Their resulting poverty resulted in crimes, which led to divisions within German society.

Reflecting on this history, the German government declared in the 2000s that the country was a country of immigration. The German government requires foreigners who wish to immigrate to the country to take a German course of at least 400 hours’ duration in an effort to establish a system for accepting them as residents.

Finally, a similar move has commenced in Japan as well: the establishment of the Parliamentary League for Promoting Japanese Education, which consists of bipartisan Diet members. Nakagawa Masaharu, the former Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, who is a major member of the parliamentary league and acting Chairman of the league, called for a system to be built to provide foreigners living in Japan with the opportunity to receive Japanese education, and established the parliamentary league. It will soon publicize the draft of the Basic Law on the Promotion of Japanese Education (provisional name).

In fact, a major problem is now occurring in areas that progressively accepted foreigners, including Hamamatsu. Children born of Brazilian parents are falling into a situation known as “double limited,” where they are unable to fully use either Portuguese, their native language, or Japanese, the language of the country where they live. These children cannot gain access to higher education or get good jobs, and fall into poverty. If this situation remains unchanged, the same mistake may be made as was made in Germany half a century ago.

Miyagawa Masakazu of Masahachi Limited, who engages in large-scale agriculture in Ogata Village, Akita, says, “We want human resources who will work together with us for many years, not a workforce solely for busy times. We hope that foreigners will become directors of our company.”

If you want to continue your business and make it grow among rapidly accelerating depopulation, it is essential to secure human resources. It is clear that you cannot overcome the situation by utilizing women and old people. If the current situation continues, the whole of Japan could fall into bankruptcy due to the shortage of workers. The time has come when we should seriously consider the role of foreigners as people who support the Japanese economy and local communities.

Translated from “Nihon no hitodebusoku-tosan wo fusege: Gaikokujin tono kyosei ni muketa giron wo ― Baburu-ki nami no hitodebusoku (Prevent Japan from bankruptcy due to the shortage of workers: Hold discussions on coexistence with foreigners),” Wedge, June 2017, pp. 29-31. (Courtesy of WEDGE Inc.) [June 2017]

Introduction

Asakawa Chieko, IBM Fellow

I joined IBM Research-Tokyo in 1985 as the only visually impaired researcher at a time when there were very few female researchers at the lab. Since then, I have brought a diversity perspective to my work in accessibility research, one of the fields in Human Computer Interaction (HCI). Aiming to optimize Braille book creation and sharing, I participated in the research and development of digital Braille editing system, Braille dictionary system, and Braille information sharing network system after joining the lab. I could move the research forward because of my visual impairment which allowed me to understand the value of digitizing Braille. Starting in the mid-1990s, I worked on a talking web browser for the Internet. This idea also emerged from the needs of the visually impaired, and since then it has spread in ways I never expected. Today, I am working on new technologies using smartphones, Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), and other rapidly advancing technologies to better support people. In this article, I would like to discuss the role of diversity as I have experienced it through these projects.

(1) Information Accessibility

I lost my sight when I was in junior high school due to a swimming pool accident. Since I was young, I have experienced social participation issues for the visually impaired It is widely said that there are two major barriers for the young people with visual impairments to receive education and participate in the society. First, the information barrier, and second, the mobility barrier. When I lost my sight, there were no personal computers, no Internet, and no smartphones. The only way to read was Braille books created by punching dots in the paper. There were few Braille books and they rarely included any of the textbooks required for higher education. Since Braille translation is time consuming, several months would pass between requesting and obtaining a textbook required for college classes. These experiences inspired me to start the Braille digitization project after joining IBM. With digitalization, it became possible to edit text and delete characters like we do on a word processor, and the Braille translation work could be shared among people over a network. In addition, Braille book data could be downloaded and printed on a Braille printer anywhere in Japan. It became possible to search a text, and portable electronic Braille dictionaries were produced. ^[i] These technologies changed education for the visually impaired in important ways.

The amount of available information expanded with the digitalization of Braille, but information sources were still limited to Braille and talking books. Then, the Web came on the scene in the mid-1990s. Since the Web was still a new technology at the time, it was only used by engineers and a few other users. When I first accessed the Web with the help of other researchers at the IBM Research lab in Tokyo, I was convinced that the vast amount of text and voice information would become a new information resource for the visually impaired. I started the research and development of a voice browser for the Web combined with a voice synthesis engine.^[ii] Later, the effort was turned into a product called Home Page Reader which became the popular de facto standard. Gradually, as the need to access the Web using voice became widely recognized, voice access consideration was incorporated into the international standard for the Web as a mandatory item, and compatibility with a diverse range of needs, such as access methods, input devices, screen size, became a major focus of Web development. In addition, the websites of the federal agencies in the United States must be accessible in a variety of ways in line with the 1998 amendments to Section 508 of the United States’ Rehabilitation Act.

As a result, the development of the information technology has vastly improved information accessibility for the visually impaired. The information sources for the visually impaired have grown exponentially from Braille on paper to digital Braille, and then the Internet. This has also had a great impact on technology standards and government legislation.

(2) Voice Synthesis Evolution and Diversity

It is not well known that the visually impaired played a major role in the development of the voice synthesis technologies. The history of voice synthesis technologies dates back to research and development that began in the 1960s, and the first voices had a robot-like sound. When personal computers became popular in the 1980s, general users had more opportunities to hear the synthesized voices, but the voice quality was still a long way from the human voice. Yet, voice synthesis technology was indispensable to the visually impaired when using personal computers on a daily basis to read text information and to create text using word processing software. With the exception of some special applications, the visually impaired were almost the only users of voice synthesis technologies in the 1980s and 1990s. When I developed the Home Page Reader in 1997, many able-bodied people commented that they were having difficulty understanding what the voice said, but the visually impaired had no problem. The voice synthesis was revolutionary in a sense that it expanded the sources of information, and the quality of the sound was not an issue at all. The visually impaired had continually used voice synthesis technologies from the days when the sound quality lacked clarity, and they also played a role in the development of voice synthesis technologies by providing feedback to developers. Now, in 2017, voice synthesis technologies exist all around us. They are used everywhere including car navigation systems, smartphones, at train stations and airports. It would have been difficult to develop the technologies without the efforts of the visually impaired who persevered and continued using them from the 1980s to the 2000s. 

The examples of technologies that were developed and became widespread after emerging from the needs of people with disabilities are too numerous to mention. If we trace history, we will find that the telephone was originally invented in the process of developing a communication tool for the hearing impaired. It is said that keyboards were allegedly developed as a means for people with upper limb impairments to write. Character recognition was first used in text reading devices for the visually impaired. Voice recognition technologies were developed as a method for the hearing impaired to converse by voice. Around 2010, a major goal of self-driving cars was to develop cars that could be operated by the visually impaired. The perspectives of diversity and the extreme needs imposed by not being able to see or hear have triggered the creation and development of new technologies.

(3) AI for the Visually Impaired

When I was a child, I watched a television program that featured a bird-shaped robot that assisted a boy going to fight against evil. The robot sat on the boy’s shoulder and whispered into his ear, telling him about everything from an approaching opponent to the weather. Since I lost my sight, I recalled that TV program and wished for a bird robot. Of course, this robot was simply a science fiction drawn in the 1960s. However, as the age of AI and IoT approaches, I think that it is within the range of what technology can do. We are referring to AI technologies that will be there for you like that bird robot as cognitive assistant technologies. Cognitive assistant technologies help augment human’s missing or weakened cognitive functions. Cognitive assistant is a new concept in accessibility technologies using AI, and research and development efforts are starting to flower worldwide.

With the help of cognitive assistant technologies, the visually impaired will be able to recognize obstacles at street crossings, traffic lights and on the sidewalks. Additionally, they will be able to recognize the information, such as stairways, escalators and elevators, they need to independently walk. Cognitive assistant technologies should also be able to recognize the ages and expressions of conference participants and to communicate the information to the visually impaired as necessary. By memorizing everything that the elderly sees, they could also serve as tools to complement memory. Cognitive assistant technologies will always be at person’s side ready to provide assistance as needed.

Four groups of technologies are indispensable to make cognitive assistant technologies a reality. We have localization technologies. To assist the user in the day-to-day environment, it is necessary to measure indoor and outdoor location with a high degree of accuracy. Since GPS technology today do not necessary offer the level of precision needed and cannot be used indoors, there are ongoing efforts to develop technologies to measure location with a high degree of accuracy using Wi-Fi, Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) beacons, and image processing technologies. The system called NavCog, developed in collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University, uses BLE beacons to measure position with an accuracy of one to two meters. The NavCog system has been installed in the three buildings of the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University to guide users to their destinations with the help of a high precision navigation that identifies classrooms and labs inside the building.

Next is the recognition technologies. Image processing technology being the most important one when realizing cognitive assistant technologies. If visually impaired persons are able to recognize people, objects and the environment such as persons and their expressions, products, structures inside buildings (stairs, escalators, elevators, doors, etc.), obstacles, they will be able to obtain the information they need for their social life in a timely fashion. This would be a change similar to when we realized with the information accessibility.

Knowledge is necessary to make use of the outcomes of recognition. Recognition of products, calorie information, and social media reputation is a given, but it may also be possible to make cognitive assistant technologies more relevant by using knowledge about the individual such as behavior history or health information. Lastly, the interaction technology. Voice interaction is a given, but there is also potential for cognitive assistant technologies that can be used seamlessly in daily life with the help of glasses-style interfaces for always-on recognition, or gesture interfaces. It is also important to broaden the field of application beyond devices such as smartphones and wearable technologies to robot technologies.

(4) Open Source and Open Data

The technologies needed for cognitive assistant are varied and have the added dimension of a showcase for integrating AI technologies. It is something that a single organization would find difficult to achieve and that can only be accomplished by combining the technologies of universities and the private sector. To implement such integration, open source is likely to have an important role in the future. Today, many companies and universities use TensorFlow, Google’s machine learning library. Inception, the object recognition engine based on Deep Learning running on TensorFlow, is an example of the rise in the use of open source. Aiming to popularize measurement technologies, we open sourced NavCog while streamlining it in a reusable form.^[iii] We hope you will make use of it.

Open data is another important issue. Indoor mapping information is necessary to achieve indoor navigation. However, indoor mapping information is normally not available to the public as it is the property of the building owner, completely different from how outdoor mapping is managed by the country. Huge amount of image data of product packaging is required for learning purposes to recognize and read package of a candy bar or other product in a store. However, the manufacturer owns the copyright to such image data and it is not possible to use it freely. As we move into the AI era, we will need new rules for open data. To facilitate reading with NavCog, we are considering setting up an open server to register information in our immediate vicinity such as store information, sale information, signboards, and information about places where there are crowded.

To make cognitive assistant technologies a reality we must face the issue of open data. Moreover, it is no exaggeration to say that open data is an issue that society as a whole should engage with as we move toward using AI technologies. As history has shown, the needs of people with disabilities will trigger and facilitate open data, and eventually research and development of artificial intelligence. This will add to the list of precedents where diversity has opened up a new future.

Conclusion

We often hear about the importance of diversity in innovation. However, it is difficult to cite examples. This article introduces historical examples based on my own experience. In the process of information accessibility advancement, a variety of technologies were created and popularized. To make cognitive assistant a reality, it will be necessary to develop a wide variety of technologies. Every day, I sense the beginnings of great innovation. I hope that readers of this article will find it useful in help familiarizing them with innovation through diversity.

Translated from ”Tokushu I: Jenda to kagaku no atarashii torikumi ― Tayosei ga hiraku inobeishon (Special feature: New efforts for gender and science ―Diversity Opens the Path to Innovation),” Gakujutsu no Doko (TRENDS IN THE SCIENCES), November 2017, pp.24-28. (Courtesy of Japan Science Support Foundation) [November 2017]

The fraudulent group that seemed like the real thing

Prof. Hashizume Daisaburo

On July 6, 2018, the founder of Aum Shinrikyo, Asahara Shoko (real name Matsumoto Chizuo), and six former members of the cult leadership were executed. Six other leaders of the group were executed on July 26, 2018. These executions were punishment for the perpetration of awful acts that shocked not only Japan but also the world. They included the killing of lawyer Sakamoto Tsutsumi and his family in 1989, the Matsumoto sarin attack of 1994 and the Tokyo subway sarin attacks of 1995. Although the trial took a long time, once the punishment is determined it is natural that it will be carried out. I feel no particular emotion regarding this.

I would like to emphasize that the lesson we learn from this case is that “the Aum Shinrikyo cult group was the first to use weapons of mass destruction in a terror incident directed against ordinary people.” Therefore, first, let us look back at what kind of religion Aum Shinrikyo actually was.

For the genesis of the Aum group we must go back to the yoga school he set up in 1984, the Aum Shinsen-no-Kai. From the beginning, Asahara made some odd statements, such as, “through religious practice, you too will be able to levitate,” but students could practice yoga and eat curry in the atmosphere of a club. In 1987, however, Asahara changed the name to Aum Shinrikyo and began to claim that he was a guru who could communicate with the Hindu god Shiva. Around this time too, his ideas became more radical as he started to put forward an apocalyptic teaching of Armageddon (the battle at the end of the world).

Because Asahara staged some colorful performances such as levitation, the mass media covered these as a kind of entertainment. Meanwhile, the religious scholars Nakazawa Shinichi and Shimada Hiromi, and the thinker Yoshimoto Takaaki, became interested in and positive towards Asahara’s religious group and its serious religious practice. Following the Aum incidents, however, these individuals who had once been positive towards Aum were ostracized by society. Since Japan’s traditional Buddhism was in a stage of shocking stagnation, one can understand why they had high hopes for Aum. Yet, if they had calmly considered Aum’s hotchpotch of different dogma and their ad hoc performances, I don’t think they would have casually supported the group.

A distinct characteristic of Aum Shinrikyo was how it overplayed Christian doctrine on a base of Buddhism. This Buddhist component comprises early Buddhist teachings based on original Buddhist texts mixed with Tibetan Buddhism. Asahara was also strongly influenced by Agon-shu, of which he had become an adherent as a young man. Also, the Armageddon emphasized by Asahara was artificially grafted on: a prophecy from the Book of Revelation made to seem like Buddhism.

Although Japan’s Buddhism came from China as part of the Mahayana, many of the principle sutras were compiled at a different time and place from the historical Buddha, and they are some distance away from the original sutras. Asahara based his teaching on early Buddhist texts such as the Agama sutras and promoted his group as a return to the beginnings of Buddhism. Also, Asahara succeeded in meeting with the 14th Dalai Lama, making use of that in his propaganda activities to create the impression of authenticity. Since his religious practice methods at the time of the yoga school appeared quite authentic, it is likely that many individuals who were not that knowledgeable about Buddhism or new religions sometimes believed that this was the real thing.

Aum required rigorous religious practice of its adherents, forced them to leave their homes, and gave them various duties. On the other hand, Asahara himself kept a number of lovers as well as his wife and had fifteen children. Adherents also used headsets to bring their brainwaves into sync with Asahara’s and took illegal drugs such as amphetamines and LSD. Had this reality been revealed, Aim’s fraudulent practices would have been obvious to anyone. However, that only happened after the investigation progressed. Just going by the documents and PR materials publicly released by the religious group, it probably appeared to be an acceptable religious group.

If adherents get too sucked into the activities of a religious group, sacrifice their daily lives, and are forced to engage in anti-social activities, there is something wrong. Those involved at the time, however, did not often realize that. It is a common method used by cults to cut adherents off from society and to convince them that the religious group’s own rules are correct.

There are many kinds of religion, but we must be wary of those that reject ordinary society or that consider ordinary society to be in the wrong. This is one thing that I constantly warn my students about.

Fakery that led to indiscriminate terrorism

Next, I’d like to consider why Aum ran out of control and why young people followed it on that course.

Aum Shinrikyo sought to make the whole of Japan part of Aum based on an apocalyptic doctrine of eagerly awaiting Armageddon. This began in 1990 when the Shinri Party fielded a large number of candidates in elections for the lower house of the Diet. Although the candidates stood for election wearing white clothing and playing peculiar music, Asahara and a total twenty-five leaders of the group failed to be elected. It may have seemed clearly ridiculous to ordinary people outside the religious group, but they were serious about standing for election. As far as the Aum adherents were concerned, they lost the election due to the deep degeneracy of society and persecution of their religious group. Asahara’s narrative of Armageddon became more real due to this setback to the group’s advance into society. Meanwhile, the ties between the founder and his followers were strengthened and Asahara began to feel a sense of urgency.

Next, Asahara ordered the implementation of his own interpretation of the Vajrayana sutra, and actively pushed for phowa (murder). In order words, Aum was sucked into illegal activities. From 1989 it had murdered its own adherents and the lawyer Sakamoto Tsutsumi along with his family. But from the time of their failed election campaign, Asahara implemented his ideas more and more fully.

Asahara claimed that World War Three would begin in 1997 caused by an oil crisis in the Middle East, and that by 1999 most of the world would be destroyed. Aum alone, however, would survive as a “supernatural race” and save the globe, and a new world would be created by these supernatural beings. It was completely absurd, but for Aum there was less than a decade until the end of the world and time was running out. Meanwhile, the group attempted to make small firearms and bacterial weapons such as botulinus. What’s more, having succeeded in manufacturing chemical weapons such as the highly-poisonous nerve gas sarin, they became more and more confident.

In February 1994, Asahara announced the establishment of an Aum state to the religious group’s leadership. To break through an unfavorable situation facing them in a court case over the surrender of group facilities, on June 27 that year they staged the Matsumoto sarin attack. It was the first indiscriminate terror attack by the group, in which eight residents of Matsumoto city died.

Aum was suspected of involvement in the Matsumoto sarin attack and sarin residue was detected at the group’s headquarters in Kamikuishiki village (former name) in Yamanashi Prefecture. Fearing that compulsory searches would soon occur, on March 20, 1995, it spread sarin inside trains on three Tokyo subway lines. Thirteen people were killed and over 6,000 injured in this Tokyo subway sarin attack.

The “approval” received as part of a small group

Why did young Aum followers blindly follow Asahara and end up committing such attacks? One reason is that they were given a place; in other words, they received approval. This longing for approval is not limited to religious adherents, rather we might say that it is shared by all the young generation.

Also, although the young people did not have experience of society, they did have a certain amount of physical and intellectual capability; and the young people who later became Aum leaders studied hard and had entered reasonably good universities. This, however, had not given them any sense of achievement. When they graduated from university it was a struggle to find a job, and once they found employment they worked hard as a small cog in society’s machine. They had no sense of being alive and resisted simply conforming to society. These young people were looking for a new world and found their way to Aum.

The Aum religious practice was divided into levels, and followers ascended through the stages towards enlightenment. They were also given employment at businesses run by Aum, such as ramen shops and computer shops, and this was also part of their religious practice. Their existence was acknowledged by those around them and they sensed personal growth. They probably felt much more alive within the religious group than they had in outside society.

The emergence of Aum and the way in which young people were attracted to it was probably linked to the times. Following World War Two, Marxism had a strong influence both in Japan and around the world, and the left was extending its power. As epitomized by the demonstrations against the renewal of the Japan-US Security Treaty in the 1960s and 1970s, students were actively involved in political movements. But from the beginning of the 1980s the decline of socialism and communism were apparent. The Berlin Wall fell and the USSR collapsed. The Cold War came to an end and Marxism, which had previously captured the hearts of young people, rapidly lost its fascination.

In any age, young people rebel against the authority of the older generation and seek an alternative. The replacement fashions were postmodernism, environmentalism and new religions. Aum was part of this trend, and because it was only a small group did not become part of mainstream society. Yet, because the group was small, young people could see their own connection to the group and get a feel for the value of their own existence. It was just the right size to offer a cathartic experience of opposing society. At its peak Aum had 15,000 followers. It was small as religious groups go, but one might say that it was just the right size to secretly radicalize and form a plot against society.

Combatting terrorism

Although Aum Shinrikyo was the epitome of a religious cult hostile to society, the majority of its followers had no connection with criminal activity. In any age, there will be social problems. New religions that object to society will always appear. But it is extremely rare for them to radicalize themselves like Aum. Therefore, it is a mistake to seek causes for the emergence of Aum specifically among contemporary factors such as “the darkness of the modern age,” and to think that we too are a cause.

Rather, the lesson from this case we must consider is: why did a small religious group use weapons of mass destruction to commit acts of terrorism? At present, the world is full of people who might become terrorists. There are not just religious cults, but fraudulent figures acting on their own, ethnic-nationalists, extremist thinkers and various others, so it is difficult for the authorities to keep track of them. There is no doubt that these potential terrorists express interest in the Aum attacks.

Weapons of mass destruction are known as ABC weapons: atomic weapons, biological weapons and chemical weapons. The most difficult to manufacture are atomic weapons, which cannot be made without a national-level structure. Yet, even groups that do not have technology can quickly pack an ordinary bomb with radioactive materials to make a so-called dirty bomb. It is a crude method that nevertheless causes enormous damage. The groups likely to resort to this have extreme political views or religious beliefs. To stop them, the black market in radioactive materials must be stamped out, which is very difficult to do. Also, the example of the Aum followers demonstrates that, given a small amount of funds, biological and chemical weapons can be produced by graduate students of chemistry and biology. In other words, we have come to a time when we must resign ourselves to weapons of mass destruction being used close to home.

This is an age when the movement of people has become easy and huge amounts of information can be sent back and forth across the Internet in an instant. It is also an age when it is hard to prevent crime. It is difficult to come up with effective countermeasures to small groups that have weapons of mass destruction.

To discover and prevent eight or nine out of every ten concealed plots, first we must strengthen the interception and surveillance of Internet, smartphone, and SNS communications. Unfortunately, there is no other way.

The final, absolutely crucial, measure that should be directed at young people is religious education. Japan has been half-hearted about religious education in the past, but we can no longer afford to be so. We need to teach about religion as part of the compulsory curriculum; not just to prevent the activities of cults, but also to deepen understanding of, and friendly relations with, people around the world. How do religions arise and merge with society? What kind of doctrines do traditional religions have? What are the strange features of religious cults? Teaching young people about religion would also be a hugely important way to prevent a second Aum case.

Translated from “Oumu jiken ga tou mono—Kenkyusha omo damashita kyoso no ikasama: Asahara Shoko ni naze wakamono wa hikaretanoka (Questions posed by the Aum incidents—How even academic researchers were deceived by the founder’s fakery: Why were young people drawn to Asahara Shoko?),” Chuokoron, September 2018, pp. 138-143. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [September 2018]

Keywords

• Aum Shinrikyo
• religious cult
• Asahara Shoko
• Matsumoto Chizuo
• Armageddon
• Matsumoto sarin attack
• Tokyo subway sarin attack

The View of Mt. Iwate (Iwate-san) from Shiroyama Park in Shiwa Town, Iwate Prefecture

 “The most expensive snow disposal yard in Japan”

Demachi Yuzuru

A large empty space in front of a station was reborn into a town that attracts 950,000 visitors annually. It is Shiwa, Iwate Prefecture, which is a 30-minute drive from Morioka. The town has a population of 33,000. The Ogal Project[1], a major project implemented in cooperation between the town government and the private sector, was introduced to the town. It is evaluated nationwide as a money-making infrastructure that does not depend on subsidies.

The project was reported as a successful example of local revitalization and attracted a flood of visitors. One of these was Koizumi Shinjiro, a House of Representatives member. At the Diet, Koizumi stressed, “The project is a great local revitalization project that embodies the spirit of local revitalization,” and admired it as “the spirit of ogal.” The word “ogal” is a coined word combining Shiwa’s dialect word ogaru, which means “growth,” and the French word gare, which means “station.”

This place used to be ridiculed as “the most expensive snow disposal yard in Japan.” There is a reason why it received such a dishonorable name. When its tax revenue was good, Shiwa purchased the land for 2.8 billion yen. But the town miscalculated it. When the town attempted to build a public facility, it had no money. The town had no choice but to neglect the land. It was left in mothballs as a snow disposal yard.

JR Shiwachuo Station in Shiwa Town

This land is located in front of JR Shiwa Chuo Station. It is 10.7 hectares in area, twice as large as Tokyo Dome. The land changed dramatically in just ten years. One day in September, I took the Tohoku Shinkansen to see what it looks like now.

At Morioka Station, I changed trains to the Tohoku Main Line. After 20 minutes, I got off at a small wooden unmanned station. I saw a town that reminded me of a bustling shopping street in Barcelona, Spain.

I was attracted by a grass square between buildings on the right and left. There was a space of more than 30 meters between the buildings, creating a large area. On weekends, people pitch tents in Ogal Square, and events for enjoying beer and food are held. People come to these events from many parts of the prefecture, including Shiwa.

Ogal Plaza is a building that is fronted on the left side of the square at the back of the station. This building is a public and private sector complex that was built of locally produced wood. It features a library, which is a core facility. On the first floor, there is a line-up of books about agriculture, Shiwa’s key industry. In addition, there is a section of children’s books so that people with children can enjoy reading them. If children say to their mothers, “Mom, I want to go to the library again,” it means that the town is a winner. The parents are sure to come again. That is what the project intends to achieve.

Takeo in Saga Prefecture opened a library in cooperation with Tsutaya Bookstore and attracted public attention. But Shiwa’s project provides a striking contrast. The library in Shiwa is a library with the feeling of the local people, without depending on outside capital.

This library has a great service spirit. All the library staff line up and practice saying, “Welcome” before the library opens at 10 a.m. They all know that if they attract more visitors, the entire community will become richer.

At the entrance to the library is a space where events featuring food and crafts can be held. There is also a kitchen there. The glass doors of this space are directly connected to the grassy Ogal Square, and events combining the inside and outside areas can be held there.

In addition, on the second floor, there is a room where people can enjoy eating and talking. This room of the library is a room that breaks away from the concept of “No talking, no eating and no drinking.” There are also large and small studios on the second floor. The large studio has a capacity of up to 150 people, and concerts can be held in this space. This large studio is also used to make presentations to the scores of visitors that come to Shiwa from many parts of the country.

There is a bar adjacent to the library. It is a popular venue that serves local food and alcoholic drinks. Next to this bar is Shiwa Marché, a marketplace for direct sales from producers to consumers. I looked at the vegetables and fruit sold there and discovered that many of them had been produced in Shiwa. Processed foods, such as bacon and sausages, as well as locally produced meat, were on display. It was inundated with customers. The marketplace enjoys annual sales of 600 million yen. This setting, where a library, a bar and a marketplace for direct sales from producers to consumers exist at the same time, was unexpected.

The tenant occupancy rate of Ogal Plaza is 100%, and it is occupied by local companies. In addition to rent, the plaza receives usage fees every time events are held. This is why the plaza is known as a money-making infrastructure.

There are other features in addition to Ogal Plaza. Within the grounds of Ogal Base, a private complex that sits across from Ogal Square, is a court exclusively for volleyball[2], which is rare in Japan. Its floor has the same specifications as those used for international matches. There is a business hotel in the space, and athletes from around the country use the hotel for training camps. In addition, the Iwate Football Center for soccer games, the building of the Shiwa office and a nursery school are located in the Ogal district.

Two men who brought about cooperation between the public and private sectors

It is now a location that attracts many visitors, although it used to be a snow disposal yard. Two men with “spark” drove this change.

It was 79-year old Fujiwara Takashi, an ex-town head, who took the lead in the project in the town government. After serving four terms in office, a total of sixteen years, he is enjoying his retirement. In Ogal, Fujiwara said to me, “Many town council members and citizens were opposed to the project. But a town head must be determined. If a problem occurs, I am determined to take responsibility for it. I entrusted Mr. Okazaki with the project.”

Fujiwara withdrew a station area development project and shifted his policy to Ogal. Fujiwara said, “If we had continued to make huge investments, we would have ended up in the same situation as Yubari, Hokkaido.” It was 45-year-old Okazaki Masanobu that Fujiwara was referring to, with his eyes half-closed. Okazaki is not a town official. He is the oldest son of a man who founded a local construction company.

Mr. Okazaki made strikingly strong remarks, saying, “I did not participate in the Ogal Project out of a sense of justice to do something for this town. That is a story that came later. I just had to do something for my construction company. We have entered an age where the economy is shrinking due to depopulation. If the town is not vibrant, my construction company will have difficulty surviving. What is important to me is the happiness of our employees. It is important for our employees to receive proper salaries and be proud of their work.”

Okazaki said, “Many people come to our town, which will make it a money-making area. It is important to ensure that real estate prices increase as a result.” Okazaki repeatedly stressed that an increase in land prices is the barometer of local revitalization.

The key phrase “cooperation between the public and private sectors” is important when looking at the miracle of the Ogal Project. The cooperation between the public and private sectors is a method of using private sector capital and knowhow without depending on subsidies in providing public services and social infrastructures, and this method is becoming more common in the United States and the United Kingdom.

On the stage of the “snow disposal yard” in Shiwa, Fujiwara participated in the project from the public side and Okazaki participated in the project from the private side. The miracle cannot be discussed without these two men with “spark.”

A system for the independence of public facilities

Okazaki, who appeared in front of me, was a man who seemed to be strong-minded. He was theory oriented.

Okazaki said, “An increase in population will lead to an increase in investments in social capital, and eventually to an increase in public works projects. The construction industry, in which I am involved, is closely associated with an increase in population. But in the current era, when the population is decreasing, we need to change our conventional method.”

There were many cases in which conventional public facilities ended when they were completed. The heads of local governments and the chairmen of chambers of commerce cut tapes cheerfully in celebration of the completion of public facilities. Okazaki thinks that this style is not suited to the era of depopulation.

Okazaki said, “Public facilities start when they are completed. The most important thing is how to make money. It is important to build a system of facilitating stable incomes in the long term, as well as dependence. How can you boost sales? The concept of promotion is required for public facilities as well.”

But for the Ogal Project, Okazaki Construction Co., Ltd. did not receive any orders. Another construction company received all the orders. Okazaki said with a laugh, “If people think that we are acting for our own benefit, we will lose public confidence. Okazaki Construction Co., Ltd. earns money in other areas.”

Because Okazaki is the oldest son of a man who founded a construction company, you could assume that he has been rich since he was a boy. But this is not true. His father was from Yamagata and established a construction company when he was in junior high school, but he was not very rich.

Okazaki was not paid regular pocket money. He removed snow from around his house and polished his father’s shoes. He went ahead of thinking about necessary work and did jobs. He received pocket money as a reward for doing those jobs. Okazaki has been keenly aware of earning money since he was a boy.

Okazaki graduated from university in Tokyo and joined the Japan Regional Development Corporation (now the Urban Renaissance Agency). He was transferred temporarily to the Ministry of Construction. He was involved in station area development projects in major cities. He saw cases where large-scale development projects that depended on subsidies failed all over the country.

Okazaki said, “I cannot understand how regional promotion is defined. In the end, regional promotion is just a magic word used by central government officials. On the other hand, local people want to build large structures to create Little Tokyos. This is the cause of failure. Even if there are structures, the local people will lead unhappy lives.”

This man who had seen the “outside world” returned to Shiwa at the age of 29. At that time, the construction industry was in a tough situation. Public works projects that were carried out as part of economic stimulus packages had begun to decrease due to the collapse of the bubble economy. Many construction companies were considering petitioning the central government to implement public works projects.

Okazaki felt extremely uncomfortable about this idea. It was clear from his experience of working in Tokyo that the central government, which was saddled with huge fiscal debts, could not afford to order public works projects. It was just like asking a man without money to give them money.

Okazaki held numerous discussions with his friends at Junior Chamber International Morioka, running the company as the executive director of Okazaki Construction Co., Ltd. When he strongly felt that the management conditions were tough and was thinking about the future course of his company, he learned that the Graduate School of Toyo University was offering a course on cooperation between the public and private sectors.

Okazaki applied to the Graduate School of Toyo University immediately afterward. Starting from October 2006, he traveled to Tokyo during the weekends. He went to Tokyo on Fridays and attended two course lectures at night. He stayed in a nearby hotel and attended five course lectures on Saturday mornings.

Withdrawing a conventional construction project

On the other hand, Fujiwara was originally an apple farmer. But he became injured and switched to a career in the transportation industry. He commenced business with one truck and developed his company into one of the leading transportation companies in Tohoku. The competent corporate manager was elected as a member of the city council and then took office as mayor in 1998 at the age of 59.

The largest political challenge for Fujiwara was how to utilize the land in front of the station. The land was twice as large as Tokyo Dome. The former mayor decided to buy the land for 2.8 billion yen. It was a project that would involve investing a total of 13.4 billion yen in the land to build structures such as town offices, a library and a cultural facility.

But from the perspective of Fujiwara, a corporate manager, it was too reckless to try to build structures according to the project in terms of Shiwa’s financial capacity. The taxes would just end up leaving a price for the future. In this situation, Fujiwara withdrew from the conventional construction project and decided to think about how to use the land. The town had no money, but the land could not be left as it was.

Fujiwara originally thought that the private sector should be utilized, but he was unable to come up with a good idea. There was no point building and developing uniform facilities as other local governments did.

Just at that time, Fujiwara learned that the eldest son of Okazaki Construction Co., Ltd. had begun to attend graduate school. Fujiwara met Okazaki at the mayor’s office to ask him for some advice. Okazaki mentioned cooperation between the public and private sectors. Okazaki said that it was the subject he was studying at the Graduate School of Toyo University.

Listening to Okazaki’s logical explanation, Fujiwara understood the message intuitively. Fujiwara thought that he should introduce cooperation between the public and private sectors to utilize the land that had been left in mothballs. The town office could not afford to develop the large piece of land singlehandedly. Fujiwara asked Okazaki, who was almost as old as his son, for advice, and made a decision.

Finally, the Ogal Project, which was based on cooperation between the public and private sectors, was launched.

A town government official also attended graduate school in Tokyo

Fujiwara moved quickly. First, he had to get a town government official to study as well, and he chose Kamada Senichi, who belonged to the Commerce and Tourism Section of the town office.

Kamada said, “My boss said to me, ‘I do not believe that you will decline my request.’”

Kawada was ordered to study at the Graduate School of Toyo University. He was instructed to consider how to effectively utilize the land that had been left in mothballs.

Kamada was involved in revitalizing shopping malls as a member of the Commerce and Tourism Section.

Kamada said, “I knew that the large piece of land that had been left in mothballs in front of the station was a significant issue, but I thought that it was a matter for other people, and that it had nothing to do with me. I was suddenly instructed to attend graduate school and to be honest, I was surprised.”

Okazaki and Kamada had graduated from the same junior high school, and Kamada was two years older. The two men studied how to utilize cooperation between the public and private sectors for the development of the town-owned land.

The two men stayed overnight in Tokyo together to ensure that they were on time for the lecture that was held on Friday night. Looking back on that time, Kamada said, “I could not figure out how to apply cooperation between the public and private sectors to the land that had been left in mothballs. I thought about calling for a leading developer to come.”

Kamada was worried about whether he would be able to utilize his experience of studying at the Graduate School of Toyo University as a town government official to achieve the effective use of the land.

The two men discussed the future of Shiwa at a bar near the hotel one Friday night. When Kamada become concerned about whether cooperation between the public and private sectors would be possible and whined, “I want to quit graduate school,” Okazaki scolded him, “I do not want to listen to you complain.” Kamada said with a laugh, “We switched our positions as juniors and seniors at this time.”

A hundred explanatory meetings with local people

Subsequently, Shiwa moved with exceptional speed. In April 2007, the town concluded an agreement with Toyo University, with Okazaki acting as a coordinator.

Toyo University officials visited Shiwa to investigate what type of cooperation between the public and private sectors would be possible. Four months later, they published a report. According to this report, there are 600,000 residents in the area within 30 kilometers of Shiwa Chuo Station. It is the most populous area in Iwate Prefecture. By utilizing this feature, they decided that they should work on agricultural promotion, tourism development and sports promotion. The idea of establishing a public corporation based on cooperation between the local residents, the town office and private companies was presented.

However, regarding cooperation between the public and private sectors, a local newspaper said, “Will the black ship be a savior?” and reported negative reactions.

In the beginning, Kamada took charge of the cooperation between the public and private sectors all by himself. In January 2008, the Office of Cooperation between the Public and Private Sectors was established. This office undertook to coordinate the town government. Looking back on that time, Fujiwara said, “I had the definite feeling that the mayor had to be strongly determined the whole time. If he made a concession part-way through, the town officials would not follow him. The town officials watch the mayor carefully. I did not waste any time. The mayor’s job was to decide on a policy. Once I made a decision, the town officials worked.”

The town-owned land was twice as large as Tokyo Dome. It was the town’s property, and the mayor was not allowed to implement the project at his discretion. It was essential to explain the project to the local people. Fujiwara held around a hundred explanatory meetings with local people in the course of two years.

But many local people criticized the project at the explanatory meetings, saying, “The town government gave up on what it should have done!” and “What if the companies involved in the project go bankrupt?” Fujiwara explained the project to the local people, consulting with them.

Fujiwara said, “Of course we are running the risk of going bankrupt. But the town has no money to develop the land. We need to choose between leaving the land as a permanent snow disposal yard and thinking about a way of developing it through cooperation between companies, public administrators and local residents.”

The town council fell into chaos. Many of the council members objected to the project, saying, “Although the project should fundamentally be handled by the town government, why are you making Okazaki deal with it?” Fujiwara argued, “I will leave it to Okazaki to do this job. If you have a substitute, bring him to me.” The local residents and town council members became more and more critical of the cooperation between the public and private sectors.

While Fujiwara communicated with the local people and the town council, Okazaki carried out multi-faceted activities. Using his original networks, Okazaki developed a method of raising funds independently without depending on subsidies. In the next issue, I will report on how the Ogal Project was achieved with a focus on Okazaki’s moves.

Building facilities to attract people on the land that had been left in mothballs

Okazaki completed the course at the Graduate School of Toyo University in March 2008. Immediately afterward, he contracted a project of constructing Shiwa-type cooperation between the public and private sectors. He worked out a way of raising funds from the private sector. But by thinking in a coolheaded manner, he noticed that the land had been left in mothballs for ten years and that it had made no money. Who would invest in such land?

Okazaki undertook analyses. Based on his experience of working at the Japan Regional Development Corporation (now the Urban Renaissance Agency) and the Ministry of Construction (now the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) in Tokyo, he knew that if they built commercial facilities with half measures, they would end up placing a burden on the town government.

First, it was necessary to facilitate people’s movements back and forth. This was Okazaki’s basic vision. That is, he wanted a universal structure for attracting people. It was the exact method that he had studied at graduate school.

At that time, Okazaki received the information that the Iwate Football Association was planning to build a football center in the prefecture. A football ground could be a universal structure for attracting people. Okazaki obtained Fujiwara’s approval and proceeded to negotiate on extending an invitation to the football ground.

He learned that other municipal governments had also made moves. Shiwa was the fifth applicant, and it was expected to experience tough competition.

Okazaki came up with a strategy for winning by coming from behind. He built a water tank beneath the football center and highlighted the fact that it was a football ground that had good measures in place for dealing with rain. Even if it rained heavily, the water would flow into the water tank, which would prevent the field from becoming submerged in water. Fundamentally speaking, residential area development had been planned for the town-owned land. In developing a residential area, special facilities, including a retention basin, had to be prepared to prevent damage from overflowing water in case of rain. There were double benefits in building a retention basin beneath the football ground.

Meanwhile, Fujiwara, the mayor, moved quickly and decided to contribute the sum of 60 million yen. He considered leasing the land for a charge and receiving an annual rent of three million yen. A simple calculation showed that they would receive 60 million yen in 20 years. If the low interest rates continued, they would be able to regain their investments. They would also be able to obtain additional benefits. If 100,000 people play soccer on the football ground on an annual basis, they will pay money. Shiwa concluded that 60 million yen would not be too high an investment.

How could Shiwa receive an order? Okazaki’s estimate was quite simple. Okazaki said, “We moved even more quickly than the other municipal governments. That was the winning factor for us.” After a little consideration, you will notice that the greatest difference between the public and private sectors is speed. I strongly felt that precisely because Fujiwara left it to Okazaki on the side of the private sector to do the job, it was possible to move at speed.

It was decided that the football center should be constructed, and the Ogal Project commenced. The opposition on the part of local residents and the town council, as mentioned above, was minor. Although people were concerned about the “black ship,” the football center would be constructed. After a local newspaper reported it with fanfare, the town residents began to have expectations, and the opposition to the construction of the football center died down.

Cherry blossom at the Shiroyama Park in Shiwa Town

To Okazaki, the football center was a universal structure for attracting people. This was also the case with the library and the town government building. Okazaki drew up a scenario on community development on the basis of these structures for attracting people.

Okazaki said, “We cannot stop the residents of Shiwa from going shopping in Morioka or from shopping on Amazon. They do not go shopping just because the store is located in front of a local station in Shiwa. Accordingly, we need a universal structure for attracting people, that is, a scheme for encouraging people of all ages to gather there.”

If people gather there, cafes, bars, galleries and stores will emerge. In addition, if stores emerge, the number of visitors is certain to increase. As a result, people will pay money in the area, which will eventually cause real estate prices in Shiwa to rise. Okazaki said that he had been aware of this economic cycle.Okazaki set the goal of attracting 300,000 visitors, about ten times the population of Shiwa, on an annual basis. But in reality, the number of visitors amounted to 950,000, three times the goal. The Ogal Project turned out to be more effective for attracting people than Okazaki had expected at that time.

Raising funds without depending on subsidies

The scheme of the Ogal Project was put in place. The next focus was on how to raise funds. For fund-raising, Okazaki also applied a method that he had studied at graduate school. For projects based on cooperation between the public and private sectors in the United States, financial advisors were involved in raising funds. He asked Yamaguchi Masahiro, an investment banker who had worked at an American investment bank, to raise funds. Yamaguchi, known by the pen name “Gucchi-san,” writes column articles in magazines, and his blog has a large number of readers.

Yamaguchi proposed securitization as a method of raising funds. Its reputation had suffered due to the subprime loan issue that triggered the global financial crisis, but it was quite common in financial circles as a method of raising funds.

In the case of the Ogal Project, Yamaguchi proposed the establishment of a special-purpose company represented by Okazaki. This company would handle fund-raising, construction projects, operations and management. The construction cost was 1.1 billion yen. They would procure 800 million yen by selling off public facilities, including the library, to the Shiwa government.

How should Okazaki raise the remaining 300 million yen? He thought of raising funds externally through loans and investments. It needed to be extremely strict, unlike conventional subsidies. Investors focused solely on whether or not the project would make money properly and whether it would be possible to pay dividends. Okazaki was required to achieve a surplus within ten years.

What should Okazaki do to achieve this? The answer was clear. It was important for the tenants to make money. It was important to look for money-making tenants.

In the end, it took him 18 months to look for tenants. He did not think that any store would do as long as it made money. Since it was a public facility, Okazaki wanted high-quality tenants. In addition, Okazaki hoped that the tenants would continue to rent the facility for many years. It was not easy to choose the tenants.

One of those tenants was Shiwa Marché, a marketplace for direct sales from producers to consumers. Currently, it was posting annual sales of 600 million yen. But a bank was concerned as to whether the management would go well because there were nine facilities for direct sales from producers to consumers in Shiwa at that time.

In response to this situation, Shiwa Marché differentiated itself from the other facilities for direct sales from producers to consumers. Shiwa Marché increased the number of its supermarket-like items in addition to those aimed at tourists. In addition, Shiwa Marché chose a person who had whipped many stores in Morioka into shape as the store manager. Okazaki made a strategic move by differentiating the stores and choosing the store manager carefully.

In the end, Okazaki raised funds through loans and investments without depending on subsidies. He successfully received a loan of 135 million yen from Tohoku Bank. In addition, he also succeeded in drawing investments from the general foundations of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. They acquired the stocks of the special purpose company for investments.

Modifying the construction plan from a three-story building to a two-story building

Okazaki obtained a projection for a 300-million-yen fund-raising plan and a rough estimate of rent revenues. He faced another obstacle, however. He found it extremely difficult to achieve a surplus within ten years based on the construction cost that he had initially estimated. This construction cost would make it impossible to secure investments and loans.

I was astonished by the next step taken by Okazaki. He changed the plan from the three-story reinforced concrete design he had initially planned to a two-story wooden structure.

The rents to be paid by the tenants that would be housed in Ogal Plaza were fixed. He had no choice other than to reduce the construction cost to obtain loans and investments. This was a decision on a modification that would have been inconceivable for conventional public facilities that were built with subsidies.

Okazaki said, “Up until then, people took it for granted that they would depend on subsidies for community development. But as a result of subsidies, their business plans turned out to be too easy and they built buildings that were too large for the local communities. If those buildings cannot house tenants as a result, it is impossible to attract new investments. People do not want to build houses and live in a town where there are a lot of empty houses. It is essential to create a place that people want to visit. People do not gather in an uncool place, and they do not want to live in such a place.”

That is, Ogal Plaza is a structure for which Okazaki took a risk in raising funds, not a structure that the Shiwa government built with subsidies and debts. The Shiwa government only bought part of it or rents it. The land, which used to be a mere snow disposal yard, became money-making land.

The flow of money is as follows. The tenants pay rents to the special purpose company “Ogal Plaza.” This special purpose company pays the tenants’ rents and property taxes to the Shiwa government. The Shiwa government pays for the library’s maintenance expenses from these funds.

As mentioned above, I explained that the staff of this library practice their greetings before the library opens. This is because if a lot of people visit the library and spend money at the tenants around it, the maintenance expenses received by the library will also increase. Because the library staff are well aware of this, they are keen to practice their greetings.

Many local governments nationwide have the same problems as the Shiwa government. Accordingly, many of their officials make inspection visits to Shiwa. These visitors are required to pay 3,000 yen each.

In addition, Okazaki travels around the country. Okazaki said, “I receive offers to have consultations with local governments throughout the country.”

It is quite natural for other local governments to try and introduce the knowledge obtained from the success of Shiwa. While I was listening to him, Okazaki made a strikingly strong remark, saying, “I receive many offers to have consultations about rebuilding local government buildings. But I only accept private contracts. I think that private contracts mean that you put your trust in the private sector. The heads of local governments who are reluctant to enter into private contracts because they are afraid of being objected to by parliament cannot achieve cooperation between the public and private sectors. Competitive tenders mean cheap, poorly constructed buildings. If price competition occurs, you cannot have good consultations.”

His remarks were new to me, and they had a huge impact on my minor idea of private contracts. A private contract means that when the central and local governments conduct public works projects, they enter into contracts with optional contractors without a competitive tender. Because there are no competitors, the prices tend to be higher. Because taxpayers’ money is used, people criticize it for not being transparent.

But Okazaki dared to point out that private contracts were an important focal point in the cooperation between the public and private sectors. After some thought, I was convinced. In the case of designated competitive bidding, the consultant may apply a method whereby other towns subcontract directly by minimizing spending. Listening to Okazaki’s story, I was ashamed of having written critical articles about private contracts.

An ex-Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications official’s career shift

When Okazaki travels around the country as a consultant, he is accompanied by a female employee—Kawahata Motoko, who is 29 years old. She is an ex-government official who joined the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications after graduating from Hitotsubashi University. She has also worked as a temporary official in the Saga prefectural government. Kawahata began working for Ogal in April this year. Okazaki said, “Kawahata can get high T-scores, but she is always scolded by me.”

Kawahata explained why she had chosen to work with Okazaki, saying, “I joined the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications because I hoped to undertake the task of creating a national structure from the local regions. But although the authorities are devolved from the central government to local governments as a result of decentralization, local governments are still dependent on central governments for subsidies, and officials transferred from central governments are in higher positions in prefectural governments. I felt uncomfortable about the current situation. I wanted to work in the field in the local regions. I was surprised by the Ogal Project, and left the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.”

In addition, Kawahata went on to speak about how she felt after working for six months, saying, “My bosses at the public offices had the style of following precedents in accordance with laws and ordinances. But my current boss is quite different. He thinks on his own, gives everything he can to what he is interested in and expands it to community development.”

Kawahata saw many heads of local governments when she worked as a public official, saying, “Old heads of local governments tend to hope to build nice government buildings and baseball grounds while they are in office. Many of them say condescendingly, ‘I construct buildings for the town.’ But are those buildings really necessary for the residents? In this era of depopulation, they could be burdens in the future and end up as tombs.”

Kawahata absorbs the perception that it is essential to have the courage to undertake an about-face on the conventional way of thinking about community development in a society where the population is decreasing.

Kawahata is from Imizu, Toyama Prefecture. She happens to be a younger graduate from the same high school as me, and she has no brothers and sisters. When I asked her, “Will you return to your hometown someday?” She said, “I still don’t know.”

Is there anywhere where she, who chose to work with Okazaki and has experienced other worlds, can work actively after coming back? I had the feeling that Toyama, my hometown, was asked this question.

The reason for building a gymnasium exclusively for playing volleyball

When I entered Shiwa, I stayed at a hotel within Ogal. It was housed in Ogal Space, a private complex. This building stands on the other side of the grass in front of Ogal Plaza. It opened two years after Ogal Plaza. The Ogal Project will develop four buildings, and Ogal Base is the second of these.

The building houses a convenience store, a drug store and a stationery store. The building does not house any public facilities such as the library of Ogal Plaza. The hotel is visited by many men who are around two meters tall. Volleyball players have stayed there for a training camp. The most significant feature of Ogal Base was that Japan’s first gymnasium exclusively for volleyball was housed in it. The same flooring materials that are used for the Olympic Games were used. Why did they build a gymnasium exclusively for volleyball?

The Japanese sports market is said to total 2.5 trillion yen annually. Baseball and soccer make up quite a large share of it.

Okazaki shared his analysis, saying, “Because the baseball and soccer markets are large, many local governments hope to build baseball and soccer grounds. The volleyball market is small. We focused on that aspect, and nationwide youth teams and teams of selected junior high school players came to stay at the hotel for a training camp. In addition, our hotel entered a list of training camp sites for the national teams that would compete at the Tokyo Olympic Games in 2020. However crazy people get about soccer and baseball, there is a certain number of people who like volleyball.”

In fact, the local club team, the Okazaki Construction Co., Ltd. Owls, whose main members are employees of Okazaki Construction Co., Ltd., scored its first victory in the All Japan Six-Men Volleyball Club Cup Men’s Championship in 2014. Okazaki also played volleyball when he was at junior high school and high school. His love of volleyball grew in intensity, and he finally built a gymnasium exclusively for volleyball. This also led to the revitalization of the town. Okazaki is developing a strategy for making Shiwa a mecca for volleyball in Japan.

Ogal Base involved a total business cost of 7.2 trillion yen. Okazaki, who made achievements with Ogal Plaza, founded Ogal Base Co., Ltd. He received loans from Tohoku Bank. The tenants’ fees for Ogal Base increased by an average of 20% from Ogal Plaza.

Currently, the hotel is so popular that it has an insufficient number of rooms. Okazaki plans to enlarge the hotel. The system of attracting people to the town and earning money has achieved results.

Kamada Senichi, who used to study with Okazaki at the Graduate School of Toyo University, is now the Director of the Shiwa Cooperation between the Public and Private Sectors Office.

Kamada said, “Kumagai Izumi, the current mayor, inherited the spirit of Ogal. First, we built a library that was effective for attracting people and Ogal Plaza, which houses Shiwa Marché. Next, we built Ogal Base, which houses a volleyball arena (Ogal Arena), and the Shiwa government building. Mayor Kumagai built Ogal Nursery School and Ogal Center, which houses a hospital with a pediatrics department, to create a good environment for raising children. I think that the order in which these Ogal facilities were built was very important.”

Kamada also cleans Ogal Square together with his coworkers. The day I met him was the day after an event, and Kamada was undertaking cleaning work wearing rubber boots.

The Ogal Project was achieved with Okazaki, an exceptionally talented man, acting as the pivot of the fan. It was Fujiwara, an ex-mayor, who discovered Okazaki. Whatever the opposition force said, Fujiwara protected Okazaki to the end. In addition, Kamada, who was a subordinate of Fujiwara, also worked hard from the public sector side. They also attracted Kawahata, an ex-bureaucrat, from outside. The sparks triggered by Okazaki and Fujiwara are so strong that they will ripple throughout Shiwa and to many parts of the country.

Japan is facing the silent crisis of the depopulation era. Because Japan is saddled with a massive amount of fiscal debt, we have entered an era when we cannot even depend on taxes. The structure in which local governments depend on the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, which has continued since the Meiji period, no longer works. In this sense, it is high time for the heads of local governments, who depended on acquiring subsidies and inviting public works projects as a power source, to walk away. The skills of the heads of local governments are more important than ever before.

Translated from “Series–Chihosaisei no shishi tachi (VIII, IX): ‘Komin-renkei’ ga umu Ogaru no kiseki (I, II) (The Miracle of Ogal that was Achieved Through Cooperation Between the Public and Private Sectors),” Ushio, November 2017, pp. 146-153, December 2017, pp. 146-153. (Courtesy of Ushio Shuppan Sha) [November and December 2017]

[1] http://ogal-shiwa.com/ (Japanese only)

[2] https://pregamestraining.tokyo2020.jp/en/module/camp/facilities/7ca0c760bf2edbbb1df0f80e4059ebd1

Evacuation orders are being lifted, but what is actually happening on the ground? Just the return of evacuees is not enough to rebuild lives. We need reconstruction policies that help individuals regain their dignity.

The suffering of the victims of the nuclear disaster

Prof. Tamba Fuminori

Often, disasters can remove their victims’ dignity. These victims lose their lives within the region up to that time, their role as members of society and as workers, their role within their family and its daily life, and many other things they have built up over time. And it is not just individuals who lose their dignity, but regions do so in the same way. Regions might lose that which makes their community have value, such as the richness of nature and daily life, or the brand on which the region prides itself. 

In February 2017, the second survey into the situation affecting Futaba residents took place, and the replies to this survey are notable for the number of people who filled in the “any other comments” section.^[i] There were some 4,320 comments. In fact, over 40% of respondees added extra comments. A notable feature of these was the surprising variety of comments: including, the internal distress of disaster victims which they had little opportunity to talk about during their daily lives; frustration at not knowing when they could rebuild their lives; living as evacuees with no end in sight over six years after the earthquake; not being able to get used to life in their new homes; and anxiety about the future. I will share some of these.

“After the earthquake, I spent time as an evacuee in different prefectures and had to change job each time. I decided to make my life in Yamagata and build a house there, but I wasn’t able to find a job that suited me, and my income is unstable. Right now, I can live off compensation payments, but when I think about the future, I worry about how I’ll deal with money matters.” (A man in his 30s)

“When I look back at the last six years or so, it makes me depressed to see how desolate Namie has become. I have realized that I cannot return to Namie. Yet, I feel very guilty towards the people who are working hard to rebuild the town. I really am full of regret. Namie is a lovely and comfortable place to live, with mountains, sea and rivers. It is absolutely mortifying.” (A man in his 60s)

“I am deeply pained by the death of my child. If it wasn’t for the accident and evacuation my son would certainly be alive. It seems like he was pushed to his death right after we started living apart. If our peaceful life in Futaba had continued nothing would have changed. I can’t tell you how much I regret that. Despite surviving the earthquake, he passed away. It was because our family lived apart that this happened. The nuclear accident destroyed our peaceful life. Was is a natural disaster? Or was is a man-made disaster?” (A woman in her 50s)

“The first couple of years after the earthquake I planned to go back to my hometown, but each time I returned I saw how it was deteriorating. Gradually, I began to realize that it would be impossible to go back. Also, our children have decided not to go back on account of our grandchildren. As parents, we are getting old, and we are worried about how we would live if we returned to our home town. In the end we decided to not return and make a home where we were evacuated in the hope that we’d have fewer things to worry about, even if only slightly. We are planning to return to our hometown occasionally for a change of mood. Or neighbors know that we are evacuees and we don’t have the same kind of relationships we did before.” (A man in his 70s)

These comments are filled with words expressing the pain of those who, due to the nuclear disaster, have lost their dignity and cannot live the lives they expected to live in their hometowns. Nor does this only apply to regions where government evacuation orders were issued. It is the same for those who voluntarily evacuated, i.e. evacuees from outside the emergency area. For example, Matsui Katsuhiro has meticulously collated ongoing interview surveys with nuclear disaster evacuees living in Niigata Prefecture. Via these personal interview surveys, he has made clear how evacuees from both outside as well as inside the emergency area have experienced a range of “loss.”^[ii] As one interviewee puts it: “Even now, five years afterwards, I don’t feel that my life has any grounding.” To borrow Matsui’s words, this expresses the pain of evacuees who continue to drift and “float around.”

Following the nuclear accidents, victims of the disasters were evacuated from Fukushima to all forty-seven prefectures, while they also went to around some 1,200 (70%) of Japan’s more than 1,700 cities, wards, towns and villages. During the evacuation’s peak more than 160,000 residents of Fukushima Prefecture were evacuated. At the time of writing (December 2017) there are around 17,000 evacuees within the prefecture, and around 34,000 outside, adding up to an approximate total of 51,000 people (see figure 1). It is difficult to picture this just from the numbers, but from the above we can appreciate that these are all individual lives damaged during seven years full of pain.

Seven years later, disaster areas are seeing significant change. Moves to lift evacuation orders.

Notes: Preparation areas for lifting of evacuation order Habitation
restricted areas Areas where returning is difficult
Source: Produced by Fukushima Prefecture based on a diagram
issued by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Based on
documents from Fukushima Prefecture.

Seven years after the earthquake, disaster-hit areas in Fukushima Prefecture are seeing significant change. Here are some recent notable examples. (1) From the end of March 2017, with the exception of some areas where returning is difficult, the extent of areas in which evacuation orders have been issued in the Soso (Soma and Futaba) region has been significantly revised. (All of Futaba-cho and Okuma-cho, however, is designated habitation restricted areas or preparation areas for lifting of evacuation order.) (2) Provision of housing to evacuees in Fukushima from outside the evacuation area (voluntary evacuees) ceased from March 2017. (3) In the Soma and Futaba region the building of temporary facilities for storage of radioactive materials has begun in earnest, while in the areas where returning is difficult the building of physical infrastructure such as “reconstruction bases” has also started. (4) The Reconstruction Agency will cease operation in 2020, so there are now discussions as to how ministries and agencies will deal with reconstruction in Fukushima after this date.

 One major change is that evacuation orders have been lifted in many regions. Previously the areas were separated into three: (1) Difficult to return area; (2) Restricted residential area, and (3) Areas to which evacuation orders are ready to be lifted. The ability of residents to enter these areas was greatly restricted, and even if they could enter there were significant restrictions on what they could do. Because of this, for a number of years local authorities in disaster areas were not even able to do reconstruction work.

In response to this, on June 12, 2015 the Cabinet decided to issue a revised version of its policy, “Towards accelerated recovery from the nuclear disaster in Fukushima (Guidelines for Fukushima reconstruction).” According to this, the government’s conditions for lifting evacuation orders were as follows. (1) “That the air dose rate is confirmed as less than an estimated yearly accumulated radiation dose of 20 millisieverts. (2) “That the infrastructure necessary for daily life, such as electricity, gas, water and sewer services, main transport networks, and communications, as well as related medical, caregiving, and postal services, for the most part be restored. Also, that sufficient progress be made on decontamination work, with a main focus on an environment for children to live. (3) That sufficient discussion takes places with the residents of the prefecture, cities, towns and villages. Based on this, the government coordinated with municipalities where evacuation orders had been issued, held discussion meetings for residents in various areas, and worked to create a consensus for lifting evacuation orders. In addition to the areas where evacuation orders had already been lifted, i.e. Tamura (April 2014), Naraha (September 2015), Katsurao (June 2016, partial), Kawauchi (October 2014 / June 2016), Minami-soma (July 2016, partial), they were also lifted in Namie (March 2017, partial) Kawamata (March 2017) Iitate (March 2017, partial), and Tomioka (April 2017, partial), making around 32,000 people who now live in areas where evacuation orders have been lifted (see figure 2).

When we see the rapidly changing developments in disaster areas there is a tendency to criticize what we might call a hasty focus on policy measures aimed at sending evacuees home, but the reality is not that simple. The actual situation is that most disaster area municipalities responded by carefully studying whether the conditions for lifting the evacuation orders were sufficient to ensure residents’ peace of mind. For example, in 2012 the village of Kawauchi quickly moved ahead with the return of residents, but part of the village was an area where evacuation orders had been issued, and the village was very cautious about when the order should be lifted. The village set up its own committee to study the lifting of evacuation orders and investigated the issue from the perspectives of a safe level of radiation that wouldn’t cause worry, progress on decontamination, and improvements to the living environment such as infrastructure for daily life. Since the airborne radiation measurements taken by the Ministry of the Environment were limited to three locations in residential areas, the village conducted its own measurements and took readings that were more detailed than the national airborne radiation standards. Thanks to these measurements actually conducted by the village itself, this grassroots initiative on the part of residents made it clear that there was a section of homes with more radiation, and this became the basis for requesting “follow-up decontamination.”

Also, when it comes to building consensus, there are examples of municipalities offering a firm response to the government’s efforts to rapidly lift evacuation orders. Initially, the town of Tomioka was presented with the “January 2017 plan to lift evacuation orders.” But the town considered the government’s policy of quickly lifting evacuation orders to be “premature,” and refused to accept the plan. Later, the government conveyed a plan to lift evacuation orders on March 31, 2017, but the town hall and town assembly agreed to lift the orders on April 1, 2017. As we can see here, municipalities in disaster-hit areas did not respond by unquestioningly accepting the government’s policy to lift evacuation orders. Instead, they considered the actual situation, paid attention to the views of local residents and made careful decisions.

So, how many residents have now returned since the lifting of evacuation orders? Table 1 shows population change in the twelve disaster-hit cities, towns and villages where evacuation orders were issued. We can see a trend where the resident return ratio is higher the earlier evacuation orders were lifted for a municipality.^[iii] Since (at the time of writing) only a few months have passed since evacuation orders were lifted for Namie and Iitate (March 2017) and Tomioka (April 1 2017) we need to keep an eye on how things develop, but all three municipalities contain areas where returning is difficult, so progress should not necessarily be considered slow. However, there is another story here, too. Even when the government’s three conditions for lifting of evacuation orders have been met, there are many situations where the actual conditions for returning to everyday life in the regions are not in place. Figure 3 shows how (according to the current housing situation as recorded by the second survey into the situation affecting Futaba residents) several years after the disaster few households are able to say that they “can live without problems.” Rather, 50% to 60% of those surveyed are either “in a situation where they need to make home repairs to live” or “are in a situation where they need to rebuild their homes to live.”

In disaster-affected areas, it is common to hear people lament the fact that returnees are mainly elderly. Yet, while it is true that overall the general trend is that returnees are mainly elderly, when we look at the situation in detail that is not the only issue. Based on surveys of disaster-hit areas, Yokemoto and others (2015) discuss the “unequal recovery” that followed from the nuclear disaster.^[iv] They point out that, even in the village of Kawauchi, which has been described as a “front runner for reconstruction,” returnees are mainly in their late fifties, while for those in their early 90s and older more have remained evacuees than have returned. They describe the situation on p. 14 of their book. “The typical image of returnees to Kawauchi is of an older person who has work in the village or who has already retired, who is not very worried about their health, and who can drive.” The dispersal of family members has worsened due to the disasters and there is little hope of the support from relations that has kept villages going to date. Those that need nursing care or assistance (even elderly people) have no choice but to remain where they have been evacuated. The reality is that returnees are mainly independent elderly, but it is not necessarily true that all elderly people are returning.

The same applies to the younger generations. If as evacuees they have made progress in putting down solid roots, say via work or their children’s schooling, they won’t necessarily choose to immediately return. This isn’t just a case of wanting or not wanting to return home. Rather, we could say that they are making careful decisions in accordance with their own life plans.

The difficult-to-see path to rebuilding lives, and the worsening “recovery gap”

One of the most significant and distinct features of this nuclear accident is the extreme difficulty of setting out a plan to rebuild residents’ lives. Even several years after the disasters, damage is continuing and getting worse. Looking at the current situation, meanwhile, over the last few years the situations facing victims have diverged, and a “gap” has arisen among victims themselves. We can say that the nuclear accident has caused extensive loss and confusion, and it is not a disaster after which it is easy for people to rebuild their former lives. I would like to touch on some facts related to this.

The first is the surge in earthquake-related deaths in Fukushima Prefecture (disaster-related deaths). Figure 4 shows the number of earthquake-related deaths in three affected prefectures following the Great East Japan Earthquake. When we compare the three prefectures, the large number of deaths in Fukushima Prefecture stands out. Incidentally, the number of directly related deaths in Fukushima Prefecture is 1,605 (as of January 15, 2018), so we can see that the number of earthquake-related deaths is higher. When we consider that earthquake-related deaths in Miyagi Prefecture and Iwate Prefecture are around one tenth the number of directly related deaths, the large number of earthquake-related deaths in Fukushima Prefecture stands out even more. Viewing this data chronologically, we can more fully understand the characteristics of this phenomenon. Figure 5 chronologically plots earthquake-related deaths in the three prefectures affected by the earthquake. We can see that while earthquake-related deaths in Miyagi Prefecture and Iwate Prefecture are concentrated in approximately the first six months after the earthquake, in the case of Fukushima Prefecture, after six months the number of earthquake-related deaths is still increasing, and even after one or two years the high number of earthquake-related deaths continues.

Incidentally, earthquake-related deaths are tied to the issuance of disaster condolence payments, and cities, towns, and villages set up examining committees to confirm these.^[v] In the case of earthquake-related deaths in recent disasters, the so-called “Nagaoka standard” (based on the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake in Niigata Prefecture) has often been referred to. This standard relates to the time that has passed between the disaster and a death.^[vi] In the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake too, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare issued the Nagaoka standard as reference information to those responsible for managing disaster condolence payments in various prefectures.^[vii] As explained above, however, even six months after the Great East Japan Earthquake damage was still occurring. People were still dying, so it was necessary to revise the standard.

In the case of unprecedented and huge disasters such as the nuclear accident, and particularly in Fukushima Prefecture, deaths can be now be confirmed as earthquake-related deaths even after six months or more. Furthermore, following the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake, the City of Kumamoto did not use these Nagaoka standard time categories.^[viii] In this way, just by looking at earthquake-related deaths we can see the huge scale of damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the nuclear accident, as well as how it continues and gets worse. In 2014, the Japan Federation of Bar Associations proposed that the government lay down new standards for confirming earthquake-related deaths, requesting revision on the grounds that ascertaining these deaths on the basis of time of death related factors such as the Nagaoka standard was “extremely restrictive.”^[ix]

Secondly, as time goes on, issues related to “work” have become a factor in the expanding “recovery gap.” The results of the second survey into the situation affecting Futaba residents mentioned above also demonstrate this. In answers to a question about “work” before and after the earthquake, 31.9% of respondees in the working age population (15 to 64) were “unemployed” after the earthquake. This is three times as high as before the earthquake (10.3%). The problem is even more severe for those aged 65 and above: unemployment increased from 44.1% before the earthquake to 76% after. From this too, it is apparent that insufficient progress has been made towards rebuilding people’s lives (see figure 6).

This situation is clear from other surveys. The Fukushima Soso Reconstruction Corporation (Fukushima Soso Government and Private Sector Reconstruction Team) is a body created following the earthquake to assist businesses in twelve cities, towns and villages affected by the disaster restart operations. This organization conducted a survey involving interviews with around 8,000 businesses in twelve cities, towns and villages hit by the disasters, and collected information on topics such as their intention to restart operations. Although there were considerable differences between the municipalities depending whether evacuation orders had been lifted or not, overall 28% said they had “already completed restart of operations in [their] hometown, or [were] continuing unbroken operations,” while 25% said they had “completed restart of operations in [their] evacuation location.” Meanwhile, 40% were “closed” and 5% “will not restart operations (cessation of business)”; so nearly half had not restarted their business operations (see table 2). The organization also surveyed whether farmers intended to restart their agricultural operations, finding that only 22% had “completed restart” while almost 80% had “not restarted” (see figure 7). Among those who had “not restarted” (those with “no intention of restarting” or “not sure if intending to restart”) the most common reasons were “aging population and lack of local workforce” (43%) and “will not return home” (37%) (see table 3). From this, we can perceive a situation during the long period living as evacuees in which there is little sign that those who were expected to one day take over farms will return home, and in which the current farmers have little prospect of restarting agricultural operations themselves.

The third issue is “housing.” The second survey into the situation affecting Futaba residents also investigates the current housing situation. The results of this survey showed that 57.4% of people in Futaba had “bought or rebuilt [their] own house (including apartments),” while the figures for Okuma were 55.4%, Namie 46.8% and Tomioka 46.6%. For the majority of municipalities located in areas where returning is difficult, around half of residents had bought a new house in their evacuation location during the long period of time living as evacuees (see figure 8). Incidentally, this survey took place from February to March 2017. For that reason, evacuation orders had not yet been lifted in Namie and Tomioka and we can assume that those who “bought or rebuilt [their] own house (including apartments)” did so in the evacuation locations rather than their hometowns. From this we can see how, due to the length of time spent living in their evacuation locations, evacuees have continued to lay down roots by buying homes.

Multiple path recovery and the restoration of “dignity”

An important issue for recovery and regeneration following the nuclear disaster is enabling those who have lived as evacuees from the nuclear disaster for long periods to recover their dignity, become part of the regions where they live and to fulfill a role in society. Yet, there is more than one way for people to rebuild their lives. Guaranteeing multiple paths to recovery is an important perspective on the issue. In these cases, even if the paths taken to rebuilding lives are all different, the ultimate goal is that everyone should recover their dignity.

Internationally, IDPs (internally displaced persons), i.e. those who move either domestically or internationally to flee the social impact of wars, disasters and other events, have become a major issue. IDPs are defined as “persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized State border.” According to a survey by the IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre), as of the end of 2014 there were 38 million people who had been displaced due to war and violence.

In 1998 the United Nations issued its Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement to respond to this issue. Since the English version of these guiding principles were issued in 1998, the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) and others have translated them into fifty-three different languages, including Japanese (as of 2014). According to Hataka Kei, “through its work, the UN has distributed the guidelines all over the world; and one might say they have become a “bible” for the protection of human rights during international efforts to deal with IDPs.” He praises the proactive role the guidelines play, in particular that: “The guiding principles have become a foundation, and related legal frameworks have been established in various countries that deal with IDPs. Although they are not legally binding, the guiding principles have gained the voluntary endorsement of various governments and function in a similar way to a treaty” (p. 60).^[x]

The guiding principles also state that, “Every human being shall have the right to be protected against being arbitrarily displaced from his or her home or place of habitual residence” (Principle 6). As well as forbidding arbitrary forced displacement due to changes to ethnic, religious or racial composition of the population, military conflict, unjust large-scale development works, and disaster evacuation that is not necessary to ensure the safety and health of those affected, it is required that, “Prior to any decision requiring the displacement of persons, the authorities concerned shall ensure that all feasible alternatives are explored in order to avoid displacement altogether” (Principle 7). In cases when displacement does occur, the second clause of this principle requires that, “The authorities undertaking such displacement shall ensure, to the greatest practicable extent, that proper accommodation is provided to the displaced persons, that such displacements are effected in satisfactory conditions of safety, nutrition, health and hygiene, and that members of the same family are not separated.”

So, what happens after displacement actually occurs? The guiding principles state the following, under the heading: “Principles relating to return, resettlement and reintegration.”

Principle 28

1. Competent authorities have the primary duty and responsibility to establish conditions, as well as provide the means, which allow internally displaced persons to return voluntarily, in safety and with dignity, to their homes or places of habitual residence, or to resettle voluntarily in another part of the country. Such authorities shall endeavor to facilitate the reintegration of returned or resettled internally displaced persons.
2. Special efforts should be made to ensure the full participation of internally displaced persons in the planning, management, and implementation of their return or resettlement and reintegration.

In depending on these internationally discussed guiding principles, we certainly should not imagine that they only apply to the “return” of residents. Rather, they require that authorities (such as nations or regional governments) work to allow “internally displaced persons [to] resettle voluntarily in another part of the country” or to “reintegrate.” We can appreciate that there is certainly not only one path to rebuilding peoples’ lives.  The guidelines approve diverse options such as returning home or resettlement and reintegration into another area. They also indicate that efforts should be made to ensure the “full participation” of the actual victims in the drawing up, management and implementation of plans for reconstruction or reintegration into the areas where they are living.

Incidentally, the guidelines set a precondition for the planned return, resettlement or social reintegration of IDPs, which is to “allow internally displaced persons to return voluntarily, in safety and with dignity.” In other words, it indicates that the wishes of individuals should be respected, that efforts should be made to ensure safety, and that “dignity” should be guaranteed. In order to rebuild lives, “return” is not the ultimate goal. Irrespective of where they live, people must to be able to live full lives as residents of those regions.

In 2014, I was involved in the drafting of “Recommendations on the reconstruction of livelihood and housing for long-term evacuees as the result of the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident” (September 30, 2014), published by the Science Council of Japan’s Great East Japan Earthquake Reconstruction Support Committee Fukushima Reconstruction Support Subcommittee. Instead of a single path to reconstruction, this proposed “multiple paths to recovery,” in which the rebuilding of victims’ lives would be the absolute priority, and in which they could choose between return or resettlement (see figure 9).^[xi]

It is desirable that disaster victims and evacuees feel that they are rebuilding their lives, that through their own choices they achieve social participation in the societies where they live, and that their civic rights are protected. In order to achieve this, it is essential that they can participate in planning, management and implementation of the reconstruction plans that affect them. They should not be treated as “victims” but as individuals and their dignity preserved even when a disaster occurs. Meanwhile, the very process of recovering the dignity that is lost due to a disaster is “true reconstruction.” We need reconstruction policies the help recover this dignity.

Translated from “Tokushu 1 Fukuichi higai, sonogo ― ‘Kokoro no josen’ ni aragau / Genshiryoku saigai kara no saisei — ‘Songen’ wo kaifukusurukoto ga dekiru fukko seisaku wo (Special Feature 1 Special feature 1: Damage caused by the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, and fight for “spiritual decontamination” that came next / Regeneration after the damage caused by the nuclear disaster. Reconstruction policies that help victims regain their dignity),” THE TOSHI MONDAI (Municipal Problems), March 2018, pp. 8-20. (Courtesy of The Tokyo Institute for Municipal Research) [March 2018]

Keywords

• Great East Japan Earthquake
• nuclear disaster
• evacuees
• evacuation orders
• Reconstruction Agency
• temporary facilities for storage of radioactive materials
• Guidelines for Fukushima reconstruction
• Iwate Prefecture
• Miyagi Prefecture
• Fukushima Prefecture
• disaster-related deaths
• Chuetsu Earthquake
• Kumamoto Earthquake
• Fukushima Soso Reconstruction Corporation
• IDPs (internally displaced persons)
• IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre)
• UNHCR
• Science Council of Japan

Discussion between Professor Sakura Osamu and Professor Saijo Tatsuyoshi

Professor Sakura Osamu (left) and Professor Saijo Tatsuyoshi

There are various matters, such as climate change, energy issues, social security, and government debt, which need to be dealt with using a long-term perspective. At the core of these issues is conflict between the interests of different generations. There is potential for the short-sighted response and decision-making of the present generation to significantly disadvantage future generations. These future generations are not yet born so cannot make their voices heard nor negotiate with the present generation. Yet, it’s not strange at all for the present generation to make decisions according to their own interests. The “market” and other social systems are not necessarily equipped with any function for distributing resources to future generations. In order to create a sustainable society for future generations, humans need to get past their natural short-sightedness, while mechanisms and systems to compensate for this deficiency are needed. “Future design” involves thinking about these issues. Professor Sakura Osama spoke to Saijo Tatsuyoshi, the originator of the concept of future design.

Sakura Osamu: Professor Saijo, in your account of future design you point out that, while the fundamental economic and political mechanisms (i.e. the market mechanism and democracy) function reasonably well, they do not function well when it comes to thinking about future generations. You also note that the situation is made worse by a human biological characteristic, which is to acquire the maximum amount of resources as soon as possible. The latter we can understand well from an evolutionary research perspective. As for the former, is that a limitation of these systems, or do the systems not have the capacity to deal with these issues well? I’d like to ask you about these and related issues today. But first, please tell me about future design.

Saijo Tatsuyoshi: I will start by talking about why I proposed the concept of future design. In 2012, I held a seminar at the University of Massachusetts on social dilemmas. During a meal after the seminar, we started to talk about how, when thinking about the future, it is a problem that future generations are not yet born. So, I suggested: “how about we create imaginary future generations among the present generation?” And then the wife of Professor John Stranlund, my former graduate student at UC Santa Barbara, told me about the Iroquois native Americans, who consider the seventh generation ahead when they make their decisions. I was really struck by this and, together with researchers from Osaka University and Kochi University of Technology, started laboratory experiments featuring imaginary future persons.

Since 1950, various economic indicators, such as fossil fuel consumption, population, and GDP have risen ever faster. Yet, according to climate change researchers, if we keep on going like this, in various fields we will start to reach the point of no return. As I’m sure you know, Professor Sakura, the destruction of most of our biodiversity has already begun. What’s more, recently climate change researchers have started to say that, even if we implement the Paris treaty commitments, it is still possible we will have a hothouse earth. I believe that this really is a consequence of our current market and democracy.

The fundamental thinking behind future design is to ask what kind of social mechanisms we should create in order to deal with this. There are various social mechanisms that regulate the basic social mechanisms of democracy and the market. Of course, things won’t necessarily go well if we use the same mechanisms in regions with different cultures and histories. We did experiments involving experimental subjects in Japan, Bangladesh, Nepal and other countries; and it wasn’t necessarily the case that mechanisms that worked well in Japan worked well in other countries.

Sakura: Please tell me a little more about the experiments in Nepal and Bangladesh.

Saijo: We made “generation groups” of three people and had them choose between option A and option B. Option A was a large sum of money, while option B was a small amount. If we left it at that, everyone would choose option A, wouldn’t they. But, in fact, in the experiment if the first group chose option A, the option A and B money would decrease by nine dollars for the following generation. Meanwhile, if they first chose the smaller option B sum, the next generation would be able to choose from unchanged option A and option B amounts.

When we did this experiment with Kochi University of Technology students, we asked one person from each group of three to “represent future generations and negotiate with the other two.” The majority of these groups chose option B. Yet, when we did this in Dhaka in Bangladesh, there was barely any effect. That was a surprise. Even in Bangladesh, in the countryside the majority of people chose option B, and when we introduced the imaginary future people, even more chose B. Yet, in Dhaka around 30% of people chose option B, and even when imaginary future people were introduced there was no difference. So, maybe there would be an effect if we changed the “social mechanisms” a little? First, we had all three consider the choice as a future generation, then return to their role as the present generation and think again. If they wanted to make different decisions, they could decide by a majority. This “majority decision” is contemporary democracy. That’s probably why it changes when a process is added to democracy. When we actually tried, there was a big change.

Sakura: How should we interpret that?

Saijo: Well, they can understand that people in the future would like them to choose option B. So, having experienced that perspective, it probably wouldn’t be that easy for them to choose option A when they go back to being a member of the current generation. We are now starting experiments together with neuroscientists. We are starting to investigate how people are able to change.

Prof. Sakura

Sakura: Creating various mechanisms while considering regional differences and linking them together; at the same time, there are global environmental issues, aren’t there. So, there are different local mechanisms but also responses to environmental problems affecting the whole globe. I can’t yet link those properly together in my own head. I think there is still a distance between the local and the global.

Prof. Saijo

Saijo: It is a fractal, isn’t it? [ed. Future design makes use of fractal thinking to resolve issues.] In fact, the local mechanisms that we are thinking about could also be used in the same way by world leaders. For example, if the G7 leaders devoted some time to thought about what they would do now if they were a future generation then their actions probably wouldn’t be governed by thought of present benefit. We are considering the introduction of imaginary future people at various levels.

Sakura: For there to be a few more people who think about the future, is it also a matter of something like personal mindset?

Saijo: Yes, it is probably by changing personal mindset that policy changes. For example, if even a minority of a few people in every ten change their way of thinking, they will probably influence the whole.

Sakura: In reality, politicians need to win elections, so they make election promises about immediate concerns — including in the regions — and refer to long-term issues. So, if voters changed a little, they might choose politicians who paid attention to future problems.

Saijo: That’s right. For example, if there were 10 representatives, I’d like to create a system where three were “future representatives,” and have candidates compete on “future issues.” I am talking about whether we couldn’t create a social mechanism where, if present day Diet members talked only about their own profit as representatives of interest groups, “future representatives” would say, “if you do that, these problems will occur.”

Sakura: Professor Saijo, in the town of Yahaba, Iwate Prefecture you have introduced future design to systems such as water rates and are taking some practical action. Please tell me a little about that.

Saijo: Actually, the person responsible for water supply operations in Yahaba, Yoshioka Ritsuji, is a pioneer when it comes to future design projects. He has been responsible for the water supply operations division for a long time. Water supply involves investing in pipes and other infrastructure, but if the money to invest in infrastructure disappears the water supply cannot be maintained. Water division managers from local governments all over Japan are facing a situation where it would take over 100 years just to renew infrastructure using current funding and maintaining water supply will be impossible. Therefore, Yoshioka gathered residents together, disclosed all the information about water supply operations, and had them discuss the issue. When residents thought about the future, they realized that things wouldn’t turn out well if they went on as they were and started to propose raising water rates.

That took seven years. The town has various policies, and he said that if one policy takes seven years, things are looking bleak [laughs]. We thought if we made use of our proposed imaginary future people, he might be able to draft policy quickly, so from 2015 to 2016 we started to put that into practice together. At that time, by chance the Cabinet Office had requested that all Japan’s cities, towns, and villages create “2060 Plans,” and said they would make modest assistance payments for good plans. So most of the cities, towns, and villages across Japan hired consultants [laughs]. Even though Yahaba also hired a consultant, they decided to take up our plan.

Once a month over a period of half a year, we gathered a group of residents and created two groups representing imaginary future generations and two groups who thought about the future from the perspective of the current generation. We had both think about policy. We told the residents who were part of the imaginary future generations that we wanted them to travel in a time machine to 2060 and think about the issues from there. That’s all we did, but the contents of their discussion were completely different. It was a real surprise. When they thought about the future from the perspective of the current generation, they saw things that were problems for them now as issues for 2060; for example, “it would be a problem if there are still waiting lists for childcare in 2060” or “it will be a problem if there are too few hospitals or elderly care facilities.” That was the same no matter how many times they talked. The imaginary future generation groups, however, started to think about what they should do now to make themselves happy in the world of 2060. In Yahaba there is a small rice-ball shaped mountain called Nanshozan. It has emotional importance for residents but is in very poor condition. The groups proposed things such as turning the mountain into a nature park. They also started to think about what to do about money. The groups discussed various things that really could happen in practice (of course, they also considered impractical things too). For example, they started to discuss how when it gets to 2060, the robot Pepper would scan their body during the night, then when they get up in the morning arrange a hospital appointment if he had found something wrong. When the time for the appointment came, a car without tires would come to pick them up.

Sakura: They looked at themselves from the different context of a future generation, didn’t they? I think that once they can see things that are not apparent in their current lives, they get an overview of what they are doing and can take a relative perspective.

Saijo: Yes, you are right. About six months later researchers from the Kochi University of Technology conducted interviews. They discovered that the imaginary future people didn’t experience an internal battle between their “present-day self and “future self,” but rather that they had an overview of both. What’s more, they said the following: “It is fun to think as a future generation.”

Sakura: Fun? Was that also true for elderly people? There was no relationship with age?

Saijo: It was very much the same for elderly people. Just by having six monthly three-hour sessions, even half a year later they said that “I end up thinking about nature” or “Even when I shop in the supermarket, I end up thinking about nature.” We thought that when they finished the six sessions they would completely forget, so it was surprising. The attitudes of those who become future imaginary people have changed.

Sakura: Once they change, will the change last long?

Saijo: Of course, it didn’t apply to absolutely everyone, but we began to think that, if we can increase the number of such people even a little, there is no doubt that society’s decision making will change. Even more interestingly, there was a real battle at the end when the group that thought about the future from a present-day perspective negotiated with the group that thought about the present from a future perspective. The future generation felt that the things that the present generation proposed were “wrong.”

Sakura: I see [laughs].

Saijo: It would have been bad to split the town into two [laughs], so next we changed the mechanism a little. The first time the present considered the future, then next the future considered the present.

Sakura: They swapped places?

Saijo: No, the same people took on both roles consecutively. We had them reflect on which is the better role to take. Using this mechanism, we had them think about the town’s public housing when the time for rebuilding comes up. The first time was a standard workshop during which the present generation considered the town’s public housing. They received 5,000 yen for each three-hour workshop, so they did talk, but they didn’t come up with ideas. It seems that participants thought that public housing was a place where poor people live so it wasn’t to do with them [laughs].

Sakura: They come to earn some pocket money [laughs].

Saijo: I guess that’s right. Then, one month later we said, “Right… today you will think about the same thing, but you will all travel in a time machine to 2050 (the lifespan of the town’s public housing), so please consider it from there.” When we did that, the contents of their discussion suddenly changed.

Sakura: The same people?

Saijo: Yes. The talk changed to things like: “The people living in the municipal public housing are Yahaba residents like us,” and “Do you know about the toilets in the municipal public housing?” They started to say things like: “They have Asian-style toilets, you know.” “When it is really cold, there are places that the heating doesn’t reach, so elderly men and women can’t bear to live there.” It was a surprise. Various ideas started to emerge one after another, such as: “Why don’t we do car sharing?” (since not everyone living in the municipal public housing has a car) or “There is really no need to rebuild the housing in the same location, so in the future why don’t we build it somewhere where everyone already gathers?” Why this change? These were exactly the same groups, the same people. Yet, a month later this kind of discussion started.

Sakura: It is quite moving.

Saijo: I was surprised when I heard it. People’s attitudes can change that much. I started to realize that if we create the right mechanisms, the town’s decision making may start to change. Of course, just by doing that it won’t change dramatically in every respect.

Sakura: It was certainly dramatic, but the way that people’s opinions changed was also very interesting. I thought that they might be able to successfully become imaginary future generations, but I had doubts about how you would overcome criticism that it was very vague. But listening to what you have just said, that wasn’t the case. People became members of the future generations and thought about the issues. That’s the important thing.

Saijo: That’s right. Elderly people came up with some good ideas. That’s because they thought about after they would die. It may be because they can separate themselves from personal interest, or maybe a motivation to leave behind some evidence of their lives is at play.

For example, there’s the case of Suita in Osaka Prefecture. There was a session to consider future design for Suita. At that, an old man in the imaginary future person group said that he’d “like [the city] to be self-sufficient in food.” Then a young person asked, “Where are the rice fields in Suita?” The old man started to explain: “I’m not thinking Edo-period farming. It would use cutting-edge technology; for example, growing vegetables in buildings.” Everyone had heard similar things, so there were all sorts of comments. Then the conversation came to the point: “Science… science… who’s going to provide this science?” But Osaka University is based in Suita, so someone said, “Osaka University.” As it happened, a student from the university was present. “Osaka University doesn’t have a department of Agriculture,” he said. “You should make one,” came the reply. Next, everyone started talking about creating a department of agriculture at Osaka University. Osaka has a competitive relationship with Kyoto, so there was quite an excited discussion about “We don’t want to make a department of agriculture like Kyoto University’s” [laughs] and “We will create a new type of agriculture department that fuses engineering, science, biology and more.” When someone asked, “But where will we build it?” a middle-aged man said, “I’ll give you the land” [laughs].

Sakura: That’s reassuring [laughs].

Saijo: They are from the Kansai region [including Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo]. As you know, these people tend to be very hasty, pragmatic and rich in ideas [laughs]. It turns out that there is the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center to the north of Osaka University, but since that will relocate, a large area of land will be vacant. A Suita City employee was listening to the discussion and said, “No matter how hard we try, we couldn’t do something like this.” In a matter of hours, they came up with a proposal for a new Osaka University department of agriculture. When creating new ideas for the future, it is no good to simply gather residents together and make them think about the future.

Sakura: That participation by residents is important, isn’t it? Participation by residents is quite common but usually it ends up being based on what is wanted and tends to just cost money.

Saijo: Perhaps if imaginary future persons consider the future, it will become based on happiness? They might think about what should be done to make future people happy. Human attitudes can really change. Also, once they say it, i.e. talk about their own ideas in their own words, they will appreciate that they can’t go back to how they were.

Sakura: It becomes a situation where they are forced to commit themselves. These examples of people dramatically changing their attitudes have been studied in terms of psychology and biology. But because people can suddenly change just by putting themselves in the shoes of a future generation, can’t we surmise that humans are wired to do that in the first place; and that while this is dormant amid today’s extremely short-term thinking, with small changes it will function well?

Saijo: At first, we just thought that the method we devised had worked well, but for people to change their attitudes this much, it has to be something that they have from the beginning. We named it generally as “futurability,” a type of wiring where “For example, even if I struggle, I will be happy if people in the future do better.” In a sense, we thought that we had discovered this and started to discuss what kind of social mechanisms we could devise to activate this future possibility.

Sakura: I think it would be pretty tough if that wiring didn’t exist, but I feel that if we can successfully activate this existing wiring, there is a lot of hope.

Saijo: I think it is true that pre-industrial revolution generations had a lot of it.

Sakura: They say that the Iroquois native Americans still have it today.

Saijo: It is impossible to check, but I think that people with the same genes born before the industrial revolution vs after would say different things in their discussions. We would like to somehow change social mechanisms to successfully activate this thing that resembles a social nature or futurability. I think that in changing it, decision-making would also change.

Sakura: Today, in Japan and many other developed countries, people don’t desire the dramatic economic growth they did before. Because resources are obviously limited and the population is not growing, it is necessary to change social structures themselves. But we can’t discard the mechanisms of democracy and the market. All we do is patch them up with festival-type events such as the Olympics and expos [laughs]. It was all quite fuzzy in my mind, but you really are getting somewhere, Professor Saijo. I am relieved. It isn’t a vaccination, but if we work a little of this stuff into learning and the school curriculum, the effect might be long lasting.

Saijo: The members of our team think there’s no need for odd “moral education” [laughs]. For example, if a child in the third year of elementary school likes trains, we’d like them to think about the town’s transport system ten years from now. They all have various things that they like. When these children become adults and a problem crops up in the town, they can participate.

Sakura: If it is something they like they will think about it hard.

Saijo: We wouldn’t force them to think about it; rather suggest that they all think about the medical system and create it, just as when we are children we think “this is how the transport system is now, but it really should be like this.” That’s why we are thinking about how to make a society where we don’t just leave it up to politicians, but a “division of labor” for thinking is created, and where it is natural to take part. If children did this for an hour a week as part of their school education, they would get used to it. We’d like to switch to a society where people don’t just keep quiet when a problem happens in the town.

Sakura: It is wonderful when ideas about what is necessary to maintain all the social systems from a broad perspective occur spontaneously.

Saijo: It would be good if that happens. Once a discussion with legitimacy emerges, one can’t easily object based on personal interest. We’d also like to change education. So that’s why we also change the political structure… democracy too. When we talk about that, most people say: “But isn’t that direct democracy?” Yet, it is not. I tell them that we would do it according to everyone’s special areas of expertise.

Sakura: It’s a viewpoint from where future design supplements special interest in different ways, isn’t it?

Saijo: There are different regions, different histories, and various different conditions. So, I think it is good to have a society that acknowledges that, “even though the neighboring town is like that, we will do it like this.” They would think about the mechanisms themselves too.

Sakura: This concept has already spread quite widely within local governments, but going forwards, will you develop your research using the expertise and data you have built up, or will you just continue to implement it more widely?

Saijo: No. Research and practical application are both essential. We take videos when applying future design in practice, create a package and provide it to others. But we are also producing research results. We have started future design workshops during which, at a particular location we’ve provided, civil servants, researchers, and ordinary people gather together and exchange ideas. There might be dentists and high-school students present. You can hear some surprising remarks. After you have worked with residents for a while you realize that they are clever. Of course, because they have lived in that place for decades, they have a huge amount of knowledge. I think that it would be wrong for a University of Tokyo professor to be invited to those towns and tell the community: “You should do this.”

In the future, we’d like to spread this not just to Japan but to the world; and to communicate it to people in different fields we have made a kamishibai [a form of street theater using illustrated boards].

Sakura: Kamishibai?

Saijo: So that they can understand what it is to become an imaginary future person, we stage a ten-minute kamishibai that portrays the experiences of people who successfully became imaginary future people. We’d like children and residents to understand. But we also want the making of a kamishibai like this to be scientific.

Sakura: It would be really great if corporate leaders would think about this. Recently, when we talk to different business-people they all understand and say things like, “Japan can’t keep going on like this,” or “We need to change the system.” But when you say, “Why doesn’t it change?” since the leaders of big corporations in particular change every two or three years, they say: “We’ll get by doing anything during my time” [laughs]. There are a lot of people who agree that this is the core problem. We really need to get to those top leaders.

Saijo: I agree. We particularly want corporate decision-makers to use future design. And a number of companies like that have started to appear. Once a few places have had some success, I think things will change. There are many people in the corporate world who really want to be useful to society, so we’d like to create some examples of success that go beyond personal profits.

Sakura: I really hope that it goes well. It’s an innovative idea that has emerged from Japan. What’s more, it is spreading in a very practical and grounded form. I believe this is a combination of academia and practical initiative that Japan should be proud of. What do you think about that?

Saijo: Since this year or thereabouts, we have been introducing our work at overseas research institutes. Last week I gave presentations at Pennsylvania State University and Duke University. They are all researchers into sustainability, so they have trouble putting that into practice.

Sakura: Them too.

Saijo: So, when I tell them, “This is the research I do,” they accept it without resistance. And, if people’s attitudes can be changed, I want to change them. So, I am thinking to travel abroad a little at a time and have people hear about our research results.

I’d also like to do more of that in Japan too. In fact, there are researchers in places that I don’t know about starting to do research. By chance, around November 2017 I was in an elevator in the Shin-Marunouchi Building when Professor Kobayashi Keiichiro got in and said, “Professor Saijo, recently I’ve been doing future design too.” I was surprised. Japan has national debt equivalent to more than two years’ GDP and might go bankrupt in the future, but he has started to think he will introduce talk of an “imaginary future”; something different to the methods of the past. In fact, the national debt and other similar problems that involve the future have a similar make-up. People from the Ministry of Finance have also started to join our research team.

Sakura: To begin with, you specialized in economics, didn’t you? That was your specialty [laughs].

Saijo: That’s right [laughs].

Sakura: In that sense, there is the same structure everywhere. To state it very strongly: we must settle the bill that the modern age has accumulated since the industrial revolution.

Saijo: We can’t go back to being pre-industrial revolution humans, but I am beginning to think that we must design social structures that activate the futurability we have within us. If we don’t do that, our continued existence itself is at stake.

Sakura: It really isn’t anything to laugh about, is it. It seems like it will become a really practical issue.

Saijo: This year there were flood disasters in different parts of Japan and I’d like those victims to use future design.

Sakura: You can create a space where people can utilize abundant local knowledge and understanding from their daily lives, then support them from the sidelines. That’s because victims have lots of knowledge about the disaster-hit areas.

Saijo: If you set up those mechanisms in advance, then when something happens, they can think what to do. We told them: “We are not thinking to tell them to do this or that. We will change the social framework. In the future, we want to change to a society where residents themselves think about that framework.

Sakura: It is a kind of dream. Like “Yes, we can.”

Saijo: In fact, the town mayor of Yahaba issued a “Future Design Town Declaration.” He intends to draw up a “We Will Change Our Town Using Future Design” general plan that uses the future design methodology. I’m looking forward to seeing what proposals the residents come up with.

Sakura: It started with the water supply in Yahaba, and now it is established with the mayor and others saying, “Let’s use this.” It would be great if there were more local governments like that. Thank you very much

Note: Transcript of an interview on September 12, 2018

Related article: https://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/economy/pt20190109210009.html

Keywords

• Future Design
• present generation
• future generation
• social dilemmas
• Iroquois native Americans
• social mechanisms
• future representatives
• Yahaba Town, Iwate Prefecture
• Future Design Town
• present-day self
• future self
• futurability
• imaginary future

Who really “owns” Japan studies?

Prof. Matsuda Koichiro

In the list of academic fields eligible for Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, no such field as “Japan Studies” exists. If one searches the list for the keyword “regional studies,” there is “East Asia,” “South East Asia,” “South Asia,” “West and Central Asia,” etc., but there is no “Japan.” Although there are research and education organizations with Japan studies in their title (I also conduct joint research with them), I think that they take an extra effort when applying for research funds. It is not my intention in this article to criticize how, within Japan, Japan studies are treated as if they do not exist in that grant scheme. Yet, if it is true that the readers of this article (including specialist researchers) assume that Japan studies are mostly undertaken by “outside” observers of Japan, they have likely been led to this misconception by the system.

In this article, I lay out something like a simple record of observations on the state of recent Japan studies: observations informed by my research and participation in academic conferences overseas, as well as joint projects of publication with overseas researchers. In this way, I intend to break down assumptions that divide researchers into “insiders” and “outsiders.” I have gained this information and experience through opportunities of research leave abroad (mainly at the University of Cambridge), presentations and joint research at several European universities and research institutes, experiences at Japan studies and Asia studies academic conferences all over the world, review of overseas degree theses and papers for periodicals, and also my experiences interacting with various overseas universities in my role as organizer of international exchange at Rikkyo University where I am based. Although there may be many other university teaching staff with similar experiences, I specialize in the political thought of the Tokugawa (or Edo, 1603-1868) and Meiji (1868-1912) periods, and thus I feel that I am able to provide a slightly difference perspective to researchers in fields such as science and technology, medicine, or business. Lastly, although I have a certain amount of knowledge regarding the state of research in South Korea and Taiwan, in this article the focus of my statements is primarily on countries that mainly use English; that is, European countries, Australia and North America.

The overall level of Japan studies

It was some twenty years ago, when I spent two years research at the University of Cambridge’s Clare Hall, that I first started making conscious efforts to write in English and present at Japan studies and Asian studies academic conferences that use English as a working language. The chance I was given to present at a Japan studies seminar that was regularly held by Cambridge’s Faculty of Oriental Studies, and an attendance at the European Association for Japanese Studies (EAJS) conference held in Finland gave me the opportunities to meet many young researchers. Following this, I have submitted papers to present at the EAJS, as well as Asia studies and Japan studies conferences in Australia and North America. Interested readers may do an Internet search to find a large number of Japan studies academic conferences held in various places around the world. If funds and schedule allow, and smaller events are included, one may find a number of opportunities to participate in conferences each year. Additionally, in Japan there is the annual Asian Studies Conference Japan (ASCJ), with which I have been involved as a member of the organizing committee since 2002. I sometimes assembled the panel to review papers for this event, but mainly I have been involved on the reviewing side.

Although before then too I had paid attention to research trends in published works and papers on political thought of the Tokugawa and Meiji periods, but around the year 2000 when I started to have close contact with Japan studies researchers, the standard of research reached a turning point.

In particular, it became clear that more students preparing their doctoral theses and recently-graduated young postgrads were using high-level materials that couldn’t have been read fully without proper prior training. Discussions, meanwhile, were more frequently based on in-depth knowledge of the latest research findings. In the field of political thought, for example, there weren’t any researchers who had just read English translations of works by a political scientist and political theorist, Maruyama Masao (1914-1996) then made assumptions about the general historical course of early-modern and contemporary Japanese ideas. In addition, there were several students from overseas (in fact, from countries that speak Western languages) who had read original sources in classical Chinese, then written doctoral theses in Japanese on Tokugawa period ideas. Compared to previous generations, who had often used existing research in English and secondary Japanese sources, received help from their supervising professors in Japan, then ultimately written their theses in English (or the language used at the university where they did their original degree) before getting their doctorate, this generation were at the same level as researchers who had been trained at Japanese universities

Japanese language teaching at universities outside Japan is also increasingly able to serve the needs of high-level research. Several universities, and sometimes research groups too, hold workshops for both postgraduates and researchers already with posts in order to teach the reading of cursive script and transcription of classical Chinese, as well as how to read print documents with difficult vocabulary and grammatical structures. I myself have taken a role at a workshop for researchers in Australia that included seminars analyzing the source of vocabulary and expressions used in Ito Hirobumi (1841-1909)’s Commentaries on the Constitution of the Empire of Japan.

Incidentally, at the same workshop, very in-depth lectures on the grammar of classical Japanese were led by Olivier Ansart and Lionel Babicz, French researchers who teach at the University of Sydney. Ansart studies the philosophy of Ogyu Sorai (1666-1728), a Japanese Confucian philosopher of the Edo period, while Babicz does comparative research on French and Japanese colonial rule. While of course the materials were in Japanese, the presentations were given in English. Those already teaching at university also ensure they can read original materials in the language of their research, and they make sure to work at maintaining that ability. That’s because, unless they do this they won’t be positively regarded in the world of research, and in some cases, they may find themselves unable to work as researchers.

Education to develop researchers

When you look at the programs and presentation submission applications for academic conferences, as you might expect, Japanese live-action films, anime and subculture are popular. There are also many items dealing with martial arts, gender, food and lifestyle. With the young generation in particular, it is true that they first become interested in Japan through these kinds of subjects, then specialize in Japanese and Japan studies at university. Yet, while it is easy to enter research that analyzes visual materials, producing original work is hard, and once past doctorate level it is tricky to focus exclusively on such research.

The issue is how to devise ways to nurture a new generation of researchers from among these young people who start with curiosity about Japan then go on to become interested in Japan studies: researchers who can properly read documents and go through the necessary academic processes. Within Japan there is a tendency to think that researchers in such fields as history and ideas achieve that status almost exclusively through their own efforts, but overseas there are high expectations for those studying the humanities. It’s a stimulating experience for me to negotiate with overseas universities that see their mission as using public funds to support students until they reach the level of researchers. At the several European and Australian universities with which I am relatively familiar, such as the University of Cambridge and the University of Leiden, supervisors expend considerable effort in securing research funds for postgraduate students working towards their doctorates. At the same time, their success in developing doctorate level researchers influences not just their own evaluation, but that of their department. In that respect, their situation is close to that in Japanese science faculties.

Of course, not every student who gets a Ph.D. in Japan studies goes on to teach at university. While there are posts available in many countries for those who hold a Ph.D. from an institution in the English-speaking world, competition is still very fierce, and there are almost no tenured first posts available. Not being able to make a living as a researcher even after receiving one’s Ph.D. is something academics all over the world worry about.

On the other hand, there are diverse work opportunities for those who have managed to acquire difficult languages to the extent that they can read ancient texts, write articles in competition with researchers from various other countries, and who are active giving papers and participating in discussions at academic conferences. Some embark on careers similar to research, such as librarians, editors of specialist publications and journals, or even in the media and ordinary companies. In the future, Japanese postgraduates in the Japan studies field will likely have to compete with such individuals.

Once they have been able to secure research funds, those postgraduates engaged in Japan studies must spend time studying in Japan. At this point, links with Japanese universities become crucial. When I oversaw international exchange activities at Rikkyo University, quite often I served as a link or official overseas contact for sections run by acquaintances at universities abroad. But when it came to accepting research-level foreign students, or sending students from here, somehow it was difficult to satisfy the other party’s expectations and I sometimes felt quite worried.

If the aim was for students to acquire undergraduate-level Japanese or achieve a general knowledge of the situation in Japan, our Japanese tuition curriculum and educational system was quite adequate, and it was easy to accept those students. However, I was asked to provide cultural exchange suitable for postgraduates working towards Ph.D.s from universities that had their own Japan studies courses. I can’t say that we were adequately prepared to meet those needs with a high-level researcher development program; that is, curriculum and teaching staff system. While they have no shortage of teaching staff with internationally recognized results in individual fields, Japanese universities trail other countries when it comes to creating the necessary systems.

Japan studies are escaping the spell of Japan

When I look at Japan studies trends in the research field with which I am relatively familiar, i.e. that of political thought, first of all there is ample research into early-modern political thought. Let me give some examples. Kiri Paramore (Leiden University) carefully reads classical Japanese documents by early-modern Japanese Confucianists and produces works that touch on currents of thought in both Japan and East Asia. David Mervart (Autonomous University of Madrid) focuses on changes in global economy and society during the seventeenth to nineteenth centuries and analyzes discourse on the economic and social situation of Tokugawa Japan.

What’s more, there is an increasing quantity of results from research grounded in Japan studies, but which involves the uses of various archives in numerous languages. For example, there is also empirical research by Professor Sandra Wilson (Murdoch University) and Professor Barak Kushner (University of Cambridge) on the complicated processes and awareness among countries involved in war crimes tribunals, and also research by Professor Charles Schencking (The University of Hong Kong) on the social and international impact of the Great Kanto Earthquake. Research is also progressing on the domestic and overseas influence of Asianist thought and movements. I am involved in a little of this myself in English translations of materials related to Pan-Asianism in Japan has been published, edited by Professor Sven Saaler (Sophia University) and Professor Christopher W.A. Szpilman (Teikyo University.) There is also excellent research into the attitudes of Japanese people grounded in everyday life matters such as family, sexuality and work. In particular, research has appeared that doesn’t take “Japan” as a single entity, but focuses on specific regions, involves spending extended periods of time in those locations, and may even use quite unusual materials to cast light on the special features and diversity of regions.

In this way, “Japan” as a research subject is a general name for a cluster of memories; a rich accumulation of varied experiences, observations, and thoughts from the regions that have come to be called “Japan,” and which exists amid the great flow of global history. Such trends are not limited to Japan studies overseas. Of course, researchers based in Japan have also realized that they cannot compete if they only use Japanese materials and study among themselves.

As research themes and analytical methods become more sophisticated and diverse, the term “Japan Studies” is losing meaning as a field of study outside Japan. What’s more, I also welcome the trend away from getting wrapped up in searches for national characteristics, such as research that aims to discover some so-called Japanese thing.

In my work as a reviewer for English articles published in Japan studies journals, academic presentations and doctoral theses, however, there is something that concerns me a little. Japan studies researchers have a closely linked network with other regional studies, and in that sense the field is highly interdisciplinary. But to look at it from my own perspective as someone who has trained in the specific area of political science that is research into the history of political thought, ironically, I sometimes find their knowledge of and theoretical training in history of thought and philosophy to be superficial. Sometimes, when it comes to Aristotle (384 BC-322 BC), Hobbes (1588-1679), Rousseau (1712-1778) and Heidegger (1889-1976), those who have specialized in Japanese thought in Japan are more knowledgeable and aware of research trends than those in Europe and the United States. Also, Japanese research on Confucian thought, as well as the history of Chinese and Korean politics, law and economy is of a high standard. In practice, it is probably easier to undertake deep study of both Western thought and Chinese and Korean thought in Japanese than it is in English. In this particular respect, Japanese is superior as a research language.

To judge by the increasing numbers of young people from a diverse range of non-English speaking countries (speakers of German, Chinese etc.) entering Japan studies in the English-speaking world however, this advantage may soon disappear. In order to make use of Japanese’s advantage as an academic language, and especially to produce impactful results outside the world of Japan studies, it is not enough for researchers themselves to simply work hard; both funding and skillfully designed educational systems are needed.

TTranslated from “Tokushu—Haabaado ga chumoku suru ‘Atarashii nihon’: Kuzushi-ji, kanbun-yomikudashi wo shutokusuru raibaru tachi—‘Nihon kenkyu’ no genba wa nihon dehanai (Special feature: The “New Japan,” as seen from Harvard University: Academic rivals are skilled at reading cursive script and transliterating classical Chinese into Japanese—The true home of Japan studies is not Japan”),” Chuokoron, March 2019, pp. 54–59. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [March 2019]

Keywords

• Japan Study
• Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research
• Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
• Asian Studies Conference Japan
• European Association for Japanese Studies
• Japanese language teaching

Kawai Masashi, writer and journalist
© Bungeishunju

A new emperor has ascended the Chrysanthemum Throne, marking the beginning of the Reiwa era. The whole of Japan is caught up in the celebratory mood. However, given the situation in which Japanese society currently finds itself, we cannot afford to be in high spirits.

In April 2019, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released population projections as of October 1, 2018. The total population decreased by about 263,000 from the previous year to 126,443,000, a decline for the eighth year in a row. The total population includes foreigners. Because the number of foreigners increased by about 165,000, the Japanese population alone decreased by as many as 430,000. Both the decrease in the population and the rate of decline were the largest ever since the comparable year of 1950.

In addition, the population of people aged 70 or older exceeded 20% in comparison with the total population, while the population of people aged 14 and younger recorded the smallest ever number. This shows that the declining birthrate and population aging are increasingly underway.

Heisei was an era in which people just sat back and watched the decrease in the number of births. In the first year of Heisei (1989), the total fertility rate (TFR), which is the total number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, was 1.57, which was below the rate of 1.58 in the year of hinoe uma (1966), the lowest before that. Of course, the media gave this fact a lot of coverage, but the Japanese people who were living it up during the bubble economy at the time did not listen closely to the reports.

Subsequently, the TFR continued to fall, but the government did not tackle the issue seriously. As Heisei neared its end, the government rushed to attempt to get into full gear for measures to address the declining birthrate. The government was unable to achieve immediate results, however.

Because many people have chosen to remain single or not to have children after marriage, Japan has become a depopulation society. The population increased consistently after World War II, but it entered a decreasing phase following the peak in 2008.

Unfortunately, the Reiwa era falls in the period when Japan’s declining birthrate, population aging and population decline will accelerate more than ever before.

For some time now, I have insisted that the year 2042 will be Japan’s greatest crisis. This is because the first baby boomers who were born in 1947 to 1949 and the second baby boomers who were born in 1971 to 1974 will be 65 or older by then. According to projections released by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), the number of elderly people will reach about 39,352,000, the most ever.

Although the absolute number of elderly people is increasing, the facilities and staff that accept them are in short supply. In addition, the second baby boomers are also the generation who underwent the employment ice age. Non-regular employees began to increase in number, and there are quite a few cases where even full-time employees face unstable wages because the management situation of their companies is tight. People’s savings for retired life are not sufficient, and the number of elderly people who only receive a low pension or do not receive any pension at all during their retirement will increase sharply. On the other hand, the number of young people is decreasing, and this structure will surface in 2042.

Subsequently, the population decrease will accelerate immediately, just like rolling down a steep downhill slope. According to Population Projections for Japan (2016–2065) compiled by IPSS, Japan’s population will decrease to about 88,000,000 in 2065 and to about 50,600,000 in 2117.

In addition, according to the same projections released by IPSS, in 2067 the population of people aged 100 or older will be 565,000, relative to the annual number of births of 546,000. That is, the population of elderly people aged 100 or older will outnumber the babies born.

Such a rapid population decrease and the acceleration of the declining birthrate and population aging are unprecedented in world history. Japan is now stepping into that crisis situation.

The collapse of an excessive-service society

If the government takes no measures and the population continues to decrease as it is now, what will happen to Japanese society in the Reiwa era?

The first thing that will happen is the shortage of workers. This will surface in many areas. According to a national census, the labor force (age 15 and over) was about 60,750,000 in 2015. On the other hand, according to projections calculated tentatively by the Cabinet Office in 2014, supposing that every working environment develops as it is, the labor force is predicted to shrink to about 56,830,000 in 2030 and to about 37,950,000 in 2060.

The labor force will be getting older. In 2015, people aged 50 to 64 numbered around 17,630,000 in the labor force. A simple calculation shows that people aged 50 to 64 account for one third of the labor force at present. According to projections by IPSS, people aged 50 or older will account for more than 40% in 2040.

An overwhelming shortage of service suppliers has already become a social issue. In 2020, truck drivers will be in short supply to the tune of 106,000. (Current Status and Issues for Work Style Reforms in the Motor Truck Transportation Business compiled by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism). Various media have reported on the shortage of home parcel delivery service drivers, which makes delivery sites disastrous.

Behind this is the fact that Japan is becoming an excessive-service society. This tendency became rapidly evident around the end of the Showa period (1926–1989). The manufacturing industry lost the strength that it used to have, and factories were relocated overseas. New receptacles for employment were needed, and the service industry replaced heavy industries and developed rapidly. I guess that the fact that the custom according to which you should pay money to someone and ask him to do work that you find troublesome became common during the bubble economy in the Heisei period was also another factor.

There is currently a lot of talk about whether or not convenience stores that represent the Japanese service industry will continue their around-the-clock operations. This began with stores screaming out for help because they failed to recruit shop assistants to maintain their around-the-clock operations. In response to this request for help, the headquarters first replied that they would bring their staff to support the stores and that they hoped that the stores would continue to operate 24 hours. This answer digresses from the essence of the problem, however.

This is because as well as shop assistants, other things will also be in short supply from now on. People who make box lunches and ready-prepared food and drivers who carry products by truck will also be in short supply. Convenience stores did not have storehouses and worked according to the business model of thoroughly managing when products will be carried in and how many products will be carried in. Depending on the region, however, this business model may not work from now on.

According to Regional Economy 2016, a report compiled by the Cabinet Office, it is predicted that in 38 prefectures, which is 80% of the total, supply capabilities within the regions will be unable to meet demand in fiscal 2030 due to insufficient production capabilities. This would make it impossible to maintain services that are indispensable for residents’ lives. Department stores, banks, hospitals and nursing homes would also be able to maintain stores only in areas where they can expect to secure a certain number of customers and would be unable to survive in many local regions.

The shortage of manpower is not limited to private companies. According to policy recommendations drawn up by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ Study Group on Local Government Strategy 2040 Vision, public administration will need to be supported by half of the current number of officials by 2040. Many of the officials of village and town offices are from those areas. That is, if the local population continues to decrease, the number of public officials who provide local government services will also have to be reduced. Although local residents will get older and will need more help than they do now, the number of public officials will reduce.

In addition, it is also becoming more and more difficult to secure human resources for work that requires a young labor force, such as police officers, fire fighters and Self-Defense Force officials. Japan’s safety and security myth, which people have taken for granted to date, is about to collapse.

Unemployment for nursing care that is projected to increase further will accelerate the labor shortage. Generally speaking, around the time when people reach the age of 50, their parents are old enough to be certified by the municipal government as being in need of nursing care. More and more people, even those in their forties, are now having to care for their parents.

Currently, the number of people who have to quit their jobs each year to undertake nursing care is stable at about as many as 100,000. This is because the government cut down on services by making the standards for entering care homes for the elderly more rigorous or raising the individual share of expenses to avoid the collapse of nursing care insurance finances. As a result of the government’s nursing care policy shift from facilities to homes, nursing care refugees were produced on a large scale, and people had to quit their jobs one after another.

Accordingly, it is thought that unemployment for nursing care will enter the limelight as early as 2021, when the first group of the second baby boomers will reach their fifties.

An increasing number of people will take a day off in the morning or leave the office early to help their parents to receive outpatient treatment, if they do not quit their jobs. The shortage of workers will spread more than the government supposes it will. The current services will be unable to be maintained in most areas.

Consumers’ changing needs

Another thing that will occur in addition to the manpower shortage is the major transformation of society due to the aging population. Japan has succeeded in achieving longevity and has already become an ultra-aging society in which the population of people aged 65 or older is more than 28%.

In 2020, one in two women will be 50 years old or older. Four years later, the entire first baby boomers will be 75 years old or older; one in three Japanese will be 65 years old or older and one in six Japanese will be 75 years old or older. Japan will be an ultra-aging society in which the annual number of deaths will surpass 1.5 million, double the number of births.

Population aging will accelerate rapidly in greater metropolitan areas, including the Greater Tokyo Area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba), as well as local areas. There is concern that medical organizations and nursing care facilities will be unable to keep up with the dramatic increase in the number of acute patients and elderly people in need of nursing care. In addition, it is considered that many issues, such as the increase in the number of dementia patients, the swelling of social security expenditure and how to secure local public transit systems and housing for elderly people, will surface nationwide in 2024.

Conventional ways of thinking will not work for an ultra-aging society. For example, consumers’ needs will change dramatically in terms of business.

It is not simply about products for elderly people selling well and products for young people not selling well. Companies must even consider producing goods that can be used easily by elderly people when they arrive. In the case of beverages, for example, when providing products, companies need to go as far as to think about whether elderly people can open milk packages and whether they can hold a 2-liter pet bottle in their hand and pour it into a cup.

Disappointingly, it is true that many people are still unable to think that way. Because they suppose that the current society will continue as it is, they cannot understand what an aging society will be like.

If I introduce an extreme example, there is a possibility that no matter how much money people have, it will make no sense in Japan in the future. For example, people called house-moving refugees who cannot make a reservation to move to another place have appeared. Even if they say that they will pay double the fee, they cannot move due to the manpower shortage. There have been cases where a dealer has leveled an outrageous price at elderly people and declined their requests aggressively. Such things can occur in every field from now on.

If we face a society in which we have difficulty gaining access to the products and services we want, no matter how much money we have, we will be unable to acquire them even if we pay millions of yen. This is a “society in which money goes rotten,” even if you save tens of millions of yen. A depopulation society is synonymous with the end of a “society in which you can manage only if you have money.”

If you find it difficult to imagine such a society, I suggest that you add 20 or 30 years to your age and imagine that such people are everywhere around you, which will make you realize that many things are quite different from how they are in the current society.

If things are left as they are, Japan will see its population continue to decrease in the future, and it will be unable to handle measures for elderly people properly. Double domestic administration issues will continue to bear down hard on Japan. No matter how many financial resources Japan has, it is clear that the country will reach bankruptcy.

The Abe administration has implemented several measures, but the fact is that they do not work as fundamental solutions.

For example, the Abe administration announced that it would increase the acceptance of foreign workers. Prime Minister Abe, who had declared that he would not adopt an immigration policy, shifted his policy to the full-scale acceptance of foreign workers for the first time. He revised the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act and established a new residence status called “specified skilled worker.” The administration plans to accept a maximum of about 345,000 foreigners as workers, not as trainees, in five years.

Of course, the labor shortage can be compensated for temporarily and partially. But even if production and service provision systems can be maintained with temporary assistance for some time, the market will shrink significantly due to depopulation. Amid population aging, public preferences will change significantly, and per capita consumption will also reduce. The imbalance between supply and demand cannot be controlled.

This is also the case with artificial intelligence development. Reportedly, an AI-related budget totaled around 120 billion yen in the draft budget for fiscal 2019, up 1.5-fold from the previous fiscal year, exceeding 100 billion yen in the initial budget for the first time. Of course, it is wonderful that the government places emphasis on innovation. There is a possibility that some innovation will be produced, and I have expectations for such a future. But these government efforts cannot be fundamentally decisive in terms of depopulation measures.

I predict that human work will be partially replaced by AI in some fields. But this is just a story about facilitating greater operational efficiency. I do not think that AI development will go as far as to resolve the shortage of labor caused by the increase in the number of elderly people. AI researchers aim to achieve greater operational efficiency, but they do not work on technical development with a focus on a grand design for depopulation measures.

In addition, technical possibility is one thing, but it is another thing to put AI into practical use at low cost and promote its use nationwide. It is almost impossible to advance technical development to the level of being able to resolve the manpower shortage nationwide in 10 to 20 years.

In the first place, the biggest question is that the Abe administration’s approach to the population issue starts with maintaining the status quo.

In 2014, the Abe administration approved the goal of “maintaining a population of about 100 million in 50 years with a stable demographic structure” at a Cabinet meeting. I can understand the administration’s setting a numerical target, but the number of 100 million is unrealistic. This number probably includes foreign immigrants. But according to Population Projections for Japan (2016–2065) compiled by IPSS, the Japanese population will drop to 88.08 million by 2065. As a result, even if the birthrate improves significantly, the numeral target will not be able to be achieved unless Japan accepts a considerable number of immigrants.

If the Japanese government tries to achieve this numerical target of 100 million, it will end up just thinking about measures for compensating for it. It cannot be a fundamental solution.

Currently, the government is expected to abandon this vision of maintaining the status quo and to advance policies based on the premise that depopulation and a transformation to an ultra-aging society will be unavoidable.

Aim to build a hub-based nation

What specific action should the government take? I think that it is necessary to accept a depopulation society and “shrink strategically” to rebuild social structures. In this context, shrinking means neither a decline nor a defeat. Shrinking enables Japan to protect itself and become richer than it was before.

I will explain this by using local governments as an example. As a result of the great Heisei municipal merger implemented by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, local governments were combined into an aggregate of small-scale local governments. Their areas increased, but the number of officials declined, and the local residents became older and more interspersed. As a result, according to future projections released by the Japan Policy Council’s Subcommittee for Deliberating on the Depopulation Issue consisting of private experts in 2014, it is said that half of the local governments nationwide will be in danger of extinction by 2040. Some local governments will even face a population of less than 100 and an aging rate of almost 80%.

In the nationwide local elections in April 2019, the candidates won without voting, and the number of candidates did not reach the full number in some local governments. This is largely because more and more people have difficulty working as assembly members due to old age amid the accelerated population aging. The autonomy of local governments itself is in jeopardy.

I want to propose the concept of a hub-based nation before many local governments cannot provide administrative services to too many elderly people due to the depopulation.

A hub-based nation is a society in which a bustling town in a depopulated area is selected as a hub and people concentrate and live in the town. The concentration of local residents in the town enables every single resident to fully enjoy the services. The local residents can enjoy efficient medical, administrative, postal and parcel delivery services by just moving to town blocks in each area. This will enable suppliers to reduce operational costs and local residents to curb unnecessary expenses.

By main service, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism calculated the scale of demand necessary for location with a focus on the conditions under which particular types of business can work in particular areas with a certain number of residents (Grand Design of National Spatial Development towards 2050, released in 2014). According to this calculation, retail stores dealing with food, post offices and general clinics can work with a population of at least 500. That is why hubs need to have at least 500 residents. Of course, you can have hubs with 1,000 to 5,000 residents.

Successful examples of hub-based nations can be found in Italy and Switzerland. In both countries, villages with populations of 500 have jobs that provide benefits to 500 people. What is important is that they do not seek difficult expansion. Those villages sell unique quality products that only they can make. These products become brands, which buyers from around the world come to the villages to buy, which enables the people in the areas to achieve sufficient earnings to make a living.

Up until today, if Japan discovered a lucrative business, it expanded the factories by making plant and equipment investments and increased employment in an effort to expand the business scale as much as possible. But villages making brand products in Italy and Switzerland are not like that. These villages place emphasis on technical innovation, but they do not seek difficult expansion. It is necessary to break away from the concept of working and expanding furiously.

To maintain its wealth and affluence, Japan must shift to the business model of selling each product at a high price by creating added value, even through small-quantity production. Great traditional industries also exist in many parts of Japan. Towns with such industries are often prosperous in the surrounding areas and can be sufficient hubs. If you add new ideas and technologies to those towns and improve them, they will be reborn as hubs that are sufficiently attractive to draw global attention.

For some areas, the method of constructing smart cities, the core of a hub-based nation, is conceivable. But Japan today has no time to spare to construct such smart cities on vacant lots from scratch. First, you designate a certain lot of an urban district in a local city as a special zone. You then reproduce the special zone as a high-tech area, bringing together Japanese science and technology into a town where everyone wants to live. The utilization of advanced technology will enable even elderly people to live on their own.

This is an example of shrinking strategically. I believe that Japan will be able to maintain its wealth and affluence by making companies and families as well as local governments small and compact.

What Japan should do in the Reiwa era

The fact that the decline in the number of births cannot be stemmed does not mean that Japan has no need to take any measures regarding its declining birthrate. If Japan finds anyone who wishes for marriage and children but is unable to achieve these things, the country should support that person. If Japan can get the declining birthrate to slow down, even just a little, it will result in the achievement of more time to rebuild society.

One of the reasons why the government has neglected measures for addressing the declining birthrate to date is that those measures remind people of the policy of giving birth to more children and improving wealth before and during World War II. That is why the Abe administration has placed emphasis on measures for supporting child-rearing, not for addressing the declining birthrate. This is rather ineffective, however.

Many other countries take even better care in economically supporting couples who have many children to raise as measures for addressing the declining birthrate, and Japan should adopt this policy. The main reason why couples decide not to have third children is economic strength. I think that the government should award grants of around 10 million yen in cash to households with three or more children. I believe that the government should take such a bold measure before the number of women of childbearing age decreases sharply.

There is a limit to what the private sector can do to urge social transformation. The government must take the initiative in leading them in the right direction.

Now that we have entered the Reiwa era, if we make a wrong choice from among the imaginable policy options, this country is certain to decline. A new emperor has ascended to the Chrysanthemum Throne at the age of 59. We will face the 2042 issue, which I think will probably be Japan’s largest crisis, during the Reiwa era.

Ahead of this, we will enter a full-blown depopulation age when the population will decline by 900,000 every year. We must change Japanese society during the Reiwa era. There is only a little time left for us.

Translated from “Reiwa no mirai nenpyo: Cho-koreikashakai no ‘Reiwa 24 nen mondai’ ―Hyakkaten ya ginko ga heitenshi jichitai wa hangensuru (The future chronology of Reiwa: Ultra-aging Japan’s “issue of the 24th year of Reiwa”―Department stores and banks will close down and local governments will reduce by half),” Bungeishunju, June 2019, pp. 270–279. (Courtesy of Bungeishunju, Ltd.) [July 2019]

Keywords

• Kawai Masashi
• Masashi Kawai
• Reiwa
• total fertility rate
• declining birthrate
• first baby boomers
• second baby boomers
• employment ice age
• non-regular employees
• labor force
• labor shortage
• bubble economy
• Heisei
• Showa
• ultra-aging society
• depopulation society
• excessive-service society
• Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act
• specified skilled worker

At the end of March, the Cabinet Office announced the results of their first survey of “middle-aged and elderly hikikomori.” They visited a random sample of 5,000 men and women aged 40–64 from all over Japan. As 47 persons (1.45%) out of 3,248 respondents (65.0%) qualified as hikikomori, the estimated number became 613,000 out of the entire population. Of these, 76.6% were men. Divided by age, it was 38.3% in their 40s, 36.2% in their 50s, and 25.5% aged 60–64. About half had been hikikomori for at least five years. Some 29.7% had been hikikomori for more than ten years.

Professor Saito at the University of Tsukuba (Social Psychiatry and Mental Health) had worked with issues of school refusal and hikikomori as a psychiatrist for thirty years. He has written a number of titles, starting with Social Hikikomori: The Never-ending Puberty in 1998.

Saito Tamaki, professor, University of Tsukuba

A survey by the Cabinet Office has estimated that there are 613,000 hikikomori (people who live isolated lives with little or no social contact) in the age range 40–64 across Japan. This was the first survey to look at middle-aged and elderly hikikomori.

However, I estimate that the real figure is twice that. There are more than 2 million hikikomori in all of Japan and I am convinced half of them are in middle age or elderly.

The aging of hikikomori will put pressure on public assistance and the pension system, cause a rapid increase in lonely deaths, and otherwise have a considerable impact. This is an urgent issue for not only the persons in question and their families, but for all of society.

Minister of Health, Labor, and Welfare Nemoto Takumi has said that “Adult hikikomori are a new social issue,” but this is somewhat off the mark. I have been sounding the alarm about how the aging of hikikomori will create a terrible situation for some twenty years.

Hikikomori is frowned upon by society so the likelihood that a survey of sending out questionnaires to households and collecting them will yield honest responses is low. As such, the results become extremely conservative, so that we still get 613,000 means that we are talking about an immense number of people.

The fact that nearly 80% were men is another proof that the results do not reflect reality. There ought to be many more female hikikomori, but unlike men, they do not stand out so much even if they refrain from social activities. If the family responds “Our daughter is doing housework,” this is not easily counted as a case. Rather than concluding that there are few women, we should make the interpretation that this simply shows that it is more difficult to problematize women’s situations.

Are hikikomori self-accountable?

A survey about young persons aged 15–39 that was announced in 2016 estimated that there are 541,000 hikikomori across Japan. If we simply add the results from this year, it exceeds 1.15 million people. Some twenty years have passed since I estimated it to 1 million, but that is now confirmed.

This was the first national survey on middle-aged and elderly persons, but such surveys have previously been conducted by local governments. What is interesting is that the local surveys show much higher numbers.

For example, a 2013 survey conducted by a health care center in Machida City, Tokyo involved local residents aged 20–64. 5.5% responded that “I or a family member is in a hikikomori situation.” 23.7% responded that “I have a neighbor, relative, or acquaintance who is in a hikikomori situation.” If we add the 2.3% who responded “Both apply,” we get 31.5%.

A famous case is an all-household survey conducted by the Council of Social Welfare in Fujisato Town, Yamamoto District, Akita over one and a half years starting in 2010. Fujisato is a depopulated town at the southern base of the Shirakami-Sanchi. 1,293 persons out of about 3,800 residents were in working age 18–55 years. It was shown that 113 of them are hikikomori. That is actually 8.74%. If we apply this directly to the Japanese population as a whole, it slightly exceeds 10 million.

The survey also yielded serious results about the aging of hikikomori. In Fujisato Town, 52 of the hikikomori, which is almost half, were 40 years or older. A survey in Saga Prefecture showed that 71.3% are 40 years or older and a survey in Yamanashi 60.4%.

Every time I see results like this, I feel that the more detailed the survey is, the closer the results come to reflect reality.

This is why I estimate that there currently exist at least 2 million hikikomori, of which half are middle- or old-aged.

Thirty years ago, about 80% of hikikomori had experience of school refusal, and I had never seen a hikikomori with work experience. There are many with experience of school refusal also today, but only just under 20% go directly from school refusal to hikikomori. The majority become hikikomori after first working outside in society.

There are those who resign from work due to becoming distrustful of other people at the workplace and then find it difficult to seek employment elsewhere or who give up on finding a new job when the economic situation makes mid-career hiring difficult. The longer the blank in social participation, the lower the rate of finding employment. If someone secludes themselves for two or three years, they gradually become listless and it becomes difficult for them to find a way out by themselves.

The definition of hikikomori is “whether or not one participates in society.” One is generally deemed to be a hikikomori if one does not go to school or work, does not have friends or a lover, and only interacts with family for more than six months. As such, they are not all shut away in their homes, but people who go outside by themselves can also be hikikomori.

It is clearly wrong to think that hikikomori are self-accountable. Long-term hikikomori is a phenomenon that is caused by a combination of various factors, such as family expectations, social pressures, and the suffering of the person in question, so it is not something actively decided by the person. Having researched this topic for a long time, I can say that only extremely few cases are families with special circumstances, such as abuse. This is a phenomenon that can occur in any family, at any age, and to anyone, so I hope for society to become more tolerant.

About half of middle-aged and elderly hikikomori spend their days doing nothing. They lie in their beds or sit on their sofas. They are thinking about so many things and are struggling, so they do not feel bored. It is easy to think that they are all shut away in their rooms absorbed in the web or games, but that is actually a minority. People who are hikikomori apparently blame themselves and do not believe themselves to have the right to have fun. Some even come to suffer from depression as a result of brooding too much.

Concerns over “caregiver abuse”

The greatest supporter of the hikikomori is their family, but in nearly all cases, their relationship is complicated. The reason is that the words of family members tend to become harsh, along the lines of “When will you start working?” or “You should become financially independent.” It is a completely valid sentiment to criticize them, but since the hikikomori themselves are aware of that validity, they come to feel that their existence is wholly repudiated, which makes them hurt or angry. Meanwhile family members think what they are saying is right, so this deepens the antagonism.

Middle-aged and elderly hikikomori face other problems as well. If the mother tends to corner the child with euphemisms and the father is always at home after retiring from work, knocking down the child with fair arguments, this will lead to tremendous stress for the child and frequently cause them to reverse night and day to avoid seeing the parents.

Something else to be concerned of is caregiver abuse. Let us say a parent living together with their child comes to require nursing care. In most cases, the child will look after them. That is because a hikikomori does not want helpers or other outsiders to come into the home. In such cases, it sometimes happens that the hikikomori remembers all the harsh words from the parent when dealing with their unreasonable requests, which makes them angry. This has to be termed a dark component of the future of hikikomori as they become older.

I tell parents that “It’s better if you don’t expect your child to look after you in your old age.” I suggest them to “Secure funds to live out your lives in peace and consider moving to a home at an early stage. Use the remaining money to look after your hikikomori child.” Their desire to leave money for their child by sacrificing their own lifestyle often backfires.

In 2012, I had a book published together with the financial planner Hatanaka Masako. It is titled What Happens to the Hikikomori’s Life Plan after “the Death of Their Parents.” We recommend parents to concretely show their child that “We only have this much money.” That is, they should tell them the truth: “If you use 1 million yen a year, then we can continue to live like this for five years. Beyond that, you have to receive welfare yourself. You have to live with public assistance.”

One of Hatanaka’s ideas that I thought was wonderful is to gradually suggest employment by saying, “If you earn 30,000 yen a month, that’s an extra 5 million yen, and we can live together for another three years. If you earn 100,000 yen a month, we can live together permanently.” In most cases, both the hikikomori and the parents think there are only two options, “not work or work full-time,” but there’s so much middle ground when it comes to employment, including earning some pocket money online and working part-time just once a week.

A first step is the desire to “consume”

In Japanese households, talk about money and death are consistently taboo. However, this means treating the children as immature. One major cause of hikikomori, I think, is that the parents cannot stop treating the child as immature. If the child is adult and you live together, the household finances should be made clear. Even if you are parent and child, when it comes to money, it is healthier to have a contractual relationship. This also helps prevent a hikikomori situation.

However, the majority of parents threaten their children with vague words like, “We don’t have any more money” or “We can’t continue living like this forever.” I think this is because they hope they will start working if they become worried, but this usually fails.

What made one male hikikomori start working was that his father told him, “We still have money, so don’t worry.” He says that “That gave me the security to start working.” As you can see in the responses above, hikikomori are constantly full of worry. If their parents then instigate worry, they become further immobilized. If their footing becomes unstable, they are likelier to stay put than to jump. By contrast, if their footing is stable, they can take a step forward by using that foothold.

The keyword is “security.” If their family makes them feel secure, they come to have the desire to be acknowledged and come to turn outward. It is wrong to worry that “If I make my child feel secure, they will become comfortable and seclude themselves even more.” Once you become a hikikomori, time for that person stops. Even if they had been able to work for a time, they “retrogress” to become a child again, falling into a state of immaturity. In order to help them turn their attention outward, it is important to give them security rather than make them worry about their livelihood.

I think the goal of the hikikomori is to acquire a feeling of self-esteem. As long as they have that, they do not mind being hikikomori. However, there are very few people who can feel self-esteem while being hikikomori. Most people gain self-esteem by working. This increases if they get married and have children. As such, we may regard work as a substantial goal, but it is really about saying “If you can accept yourself, that’s your goal” while still leaving the person in question the freedom of choice.

The first step to breaking free from being a hikikomori is consumption. Being a hikikomori for a long time leads to a loss of desire, bringing down consumption activities to a zero. If you do not have any desire, you also do not have any motivation, so the possibility of finding employment disappears. The patients I examine generally live on 1 million or less a year. They do not indulge themselves and do not eat out. That is why I encourage them to use as much money as allowed.

If the incentive for working is obligation or wanting to be acknowledged by others, it is not easy to take the step to find work. They are likely to cave under the pressure. The best incentive is wanting something and working because you need money to buy it.

Prevent the mass outbreak of “lonely deaths”!

As indicated by the inclusion of the entry “hikikomori” in the Oxford English Dictionary, hikikomori is thought to be an issue that originated in Japan. However, in recent times, it has become known that it also occurs in other countries. It is extremely common in South Korea, and is increasing in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The common feature is a Confucian culture and an affluent society. In other words, we may hypothesize that there are more hikikomori in modernized Confucian countries. In Europe, it seems they are the most common in Italy and Spain. They are familialistic countries in the Catholic cultural sphere. Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Spain have in common that more than 70% of young people live with their parents. There are many hikikomori in countries where it is thought natural for families to take care of children if they are unable to participate in society.

By contrast, it is taken for granted that you leave the house when you become an adult in individualistic countries like the United Kingdom or the United States. Unless you work, you will end up homeless. The homeless population of Japan is the smallest among advanced nations, and is estimated to be slightly more than 5,000 people according to statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare. At the same time, there are thought to be 260,000 young homeless persons in the United Kingdom and more than 1 million in the United States.

That is, the hikikomori problem should not be understood as having to do with Japanese culture but in a framework of familialism vs individualism. The difference is only about whether young persons with no place in society end up “in the home or on the street.” Also looking globally, I believe there are only two ways in which young people are excluded from society: as hikikomori or as homeless.

The difference is what happens after that. The living conditions of homelessness are harsh and many do not survive the winter, so the average life span is about 50 years. Meanwhile, since hikikomori live in a favorable home environment, their average life span likely exceeds 80 years. The number of homeless persons will not increase above a certain level, but the number of hikikomori will just keep rising.

I have been sounding the alarms for quite some time, saying that “the age of the hikikomori longevity society is coming in 2030.” This is because all the 10,000s of hikikomori in their mid-50s now will start receiving their pensions at once then. By that time, their parents will probably have passed away and those worried about their child’s future will likely have kept paying their child’s pension premium until they die. When those children start receiving their pensions, will the pension system be able to pay out?

Moreover, half of pensions are financed by taxes, but middle-aged and elderly hikikomori would not have paid any income tax. I am very much worried about the risk of “hikikomori bashing” from the general population with the argument “It’s unfair that they receive pensions when they haven’t paid any taxes.” The same goes for reliance on public assistance. I worry that the idea that “You are responsible for becoming a hikikomori, so it can’t be helped if you die” will become mainstream in society.

Something that I am equally concerned about is that more than half of hikikomori may not apply for a pension or public assistance. It might be that they lack the lifestyle skills to complete the paperwork at the public office, but my biggest concern is that most will not apply because they feel it is shameful. In that case, there is nothing left but a lonely death. Eventually, I fear an age of mass lonely deaths will come.

If we estimated the current hikikomori population to be 2 million, it will likely rise to 3 or 4 million in a decade. Since Japan’s total population will shrink, the hikikomori ratio will increase even more. Either the financing of pensions and public assistance will break down or there will be a mass outbreak of lonely deaths. Either way, the future does not look bright.

In order to avert such a situation, we have to improve the support systems. Hikikomori Local Support Centers are being set up in all prefectures and in selected cities, and institutions are being improved, but it is far from sufficient. There is an urgent need for a support system that can guide them to start working, without forcing them, before their parents die, and it should start with home visits.

Something you hear a lot about in recent times is how a helper may go to the home of an elderly and find that their adult hikikomori grandchild lives there. Yet the helper’s job is taking care of the elderly, so they cannot care for the grandchild. In such situations, perhaps we need to adapt and create an arrangement where both can be cared for as a set. If there are people there who require help, then the authorities ought to respond flexibly regardless of jurisdiction.

I hope that this year’s survey will become a turning point for the government to start dealing with the hikikomori problem in earnest. The current hikikomori population of 2 million remains a size that you can willfully ignore. They do not leave their houses so they stand out even less. However, by the time we can no longer ignore them, their number may have increased to 10s of millions.

How will the Japanese government provide for them in the near future? The survey results are asking this pressing question.

Translated from “Chukonen hikikomori” 100 man-nin no genjitsu ― Hikikomori no koreika wa shakai-zentai no daimondai da (The reality of 1 million “middle-aged and elderly hikikomori” ― The aging of hikikomori is a major issue for all of society),” Bungeishunju, June 2019, pp. 176–183. (Courtesy of Bungeishunju, Ltd.) [July 2019]

The application of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is being promoted in organizational management in a variety of realms. The SDGs are also being focused on as one of the essential parts of the management of local governments and cities, and practical initiatives are being conducted. This paper explains the characteristics of the SDGs and the methods of thinking behind them, introduces practical initiatives carried out by Japanese local governments and presents the points of view expected for future developments.

1. The SDGs applied as common goals

Prof. Tamamura Masatoshi

Japanese companies and local governments focus on the keywords of the SDGs, and practical initiatives and applications by a wide range of actors are being promoted as common goals pursued globally.

For example, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Reports are intended to fulfill accountability for how individual companies regard their relationships with diverse stakeholders in society and what roles and duties they carry out in those relationships. They are released every year by almost all listed companies. In the last few years, CSR reports have often included descriptions premised on the SDGs. In addition, some companies apply the framework of the SDGs to booklets like Corporate Data, introducing and explaining themselves in their entirety, as well as CSR reports (Hitachi Ltd., Saraya Co. Ltd, etc.).

Companies regard the SDGs as a concept for not only advocating their corporate philosophies but also for defining specific strategies and activities in their main businesses. Companies also evaluate and examine their own situations in light of the SDGs. This move is also becoming important as part of corporate investor relations (IR) activities.

Japanese local governments are regarding their comprehensive plans at the very top of planning structure in the context of the ways of thinking behind the SDGs and the pivot of evaluation. Local governments are attempting to work on the SDGs at their own initiative. They are applying the SDGs to the comprehensive strategies of regional revitalization and are revising and promoting environmental plans.

First of all, this paper explains the background of and ways of thinking behind these trendy SDGs. For this explanation, this paper provides explanations from the viewpoint of the five implementation principles of the SDGs—universality, inclusiveness, participatory, integration, and transparency and accountability. The paper then introduces practical initiatives carried out by Japanese local governments and explains the question of making plans comprehensive, which is expected for future developments.

2. Globally universal common goals

The SDGs are common global goals for realizing a sustainable society by 2030, which were adopted as the successor to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) at the United Nations headquarters in New York in September 2015.

The MDGs, formulated ahead of the SDGs, were adopted by the United Nations in September 2000 as 8 Goals for the international community to achieve by 2015 with a focus on solving the issues facing developing countries (Fig. 1).

Fifteen years of initiatives for the MDGs produced a certain level of results. Based on this experience, people came to recognize the importance of including developed countries as well as developing countries in the targets, and of diverse actors collaborating to create a world in which everyone can continue to live.

The SDGs, adopted by the United Nations, target all countries, including developed countries as well as developing countries, with a focus on universality. In addition, the MDGs set 8 Goals for developing countries to achieve and 21 targets that specify the details of these goals. The SDGs set 17 goals and 169 targets in consideration of the initiatives carried out by developed countries (Fig. 2).

The Development Goals included in the terminology of the SDGs tend to be thought of as goals for developing countries to achieve with the cooperation of developed countries in development. But the SDGs set the goal of realizing a sustainable society by 2030 as universal goals for all countries and regions to tackle, including developed countries as well as developing countries. In fact, many of the targets related to goals 7-12 of the SDGs are difficult to achieve unless developed countries as well as developing countries conduct concrete practical initiatives.

In addition, it is also important for developed countries to tackle their domestic challenges. It is also expected to produce further effects by providing developing countries globally with approaches and products created through trial and error for solving issues in developed countries (Tamamura, 2018-04-09).

3. Common goals to pursue “participatory” and “inclusiveness” for leaving no one behind

The ways of thinking behind the SDGs, which are pursued as common goals with global common universality targeting all countries (all people), also have inclusiveness represented by the philosophy of leaving no one behind, and the viewpoint of individual goals and targets is also challenging. For example, the goal “1: No Poverty” says “1.1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere” and the goal “3: Good Health and Well-Being” says “3.2 By 2030, end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age, with all countries aiming to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 per 1,000 live births and under-5 mortality to at least as low as 25 per 1,000 live births.” These targets are quite challenging.

To pursue the achievement of these challenging goals, the activities of the public sector alone are limited, and it is necessary for diverse actors, including the private sector and civil societies (the central government, local governments, businesses, NGOs/NPOs, civil societies and universities and other research institutes), to play a role and cooperate and collaborate in working on the goals. The SDGs came to have the characteristic of participatory involving these diverse actors.

In addition, challenging goals require the whole world to practice technological and social innovation and change lifestyles. In this sense, the principle of participatory involving diverse actors is important.

According to an estimate released by the World Economic Forum, advancing the SDGs will create 12 trillion dollars in value and 380 million jobs. Attempts for the ideal future to be realized globally are estimated to be effective for the economy and employment.

4. Common goals with integration where goals and activities influence each other organically

The MDGs simply had 8 goals and 21 targets, while the SDGs have as many as 17 goals and 169 targets. The goals of the SDGs deal comprehensively with social issues and regard them as not only things to be pursued individually but also things that influence each other. As social issues often influence each other, if you work on individual goals and targets, they will be linked to each other.

In addition, initiatives for realizing the SDGs will be able to produce effects more easily through an integrated approach to issues from the viewpoints of society, economy and environment. The SDGs also feature this way of thinking with universality.

5. Common goals with transparency and accountability to examine an attempt for the future in 2030

The SDGs take the backcasting-type approach of drawing up current policies and strategies by calculating the ideal state of affairs in 2030 and of continuing to examine and improve the policies and strategies.

The forecasting-type approach of drawing up and implementing immediately feasible plans based on past achievements and circumstances generally took so much time to achieve coordination and involved thinking based on current activities and resources that it tended to be difficult to create a new attempt.

The SDGs prompt various attempts by setting common goals first as a backcasting-type approach and also make it easier to follow up with transparency and accountability in regular examinations.

6. An approach to the SDGs in Japan

In this section, I explain Japanese measures and practical initiatives carried out by local governments with regard to the SDGs with these five implementation principles (universality, inclusiveness, participatory, integration, and transparency and accountability).

In Japan, an SDGs Promotion Headquarters was established in May 2016 with the Prime Minister as Chief, the Chief Cabinet Secretary and the Foreign Minister as Deputy-chiefs and all other Cabinet ministers as members, keeping in mind both the domestic implementation of the SDGs and international cooperation. In addition, an SDGs Promotion Roundtable Meeting in which diverse actors gather and exchange opinions was also established within the SDGs Promotion Headquarters. In December 2016, a Guideline for SDGs Implementation in Japan was formulated at the Headquarters in this structure on the basis of opinions exchanged at the Roundtable Meeting and public comments. In addition, the SDGs Action Plan 2018 was formulated in December 2017, the SDGs Action Plan 2019 was formulated in December 2018, and concrete measures were taken.

In the Japanese Guideline for SDGs Implementation, the following 8 priority areas are specified. (The SDGs Action Plan is scheduled to be revised in late 2019.)

1. Empowerment of All People
2. Achievement of Good Health and Longevity
3. Creating Growth Markets, Revitalization of Rural Areas, and Promoting Science Technology and Innovation
4. Sustainable and Resilient Land Use, Promoting Quality Infrastructure
5. Energy Conservation, Renewable Energy, Climate Change Countermeasures, and Sound Material-Cycle Society
6. Conservation of Environment, including Biodiversity, Forests and the Oceans
7. Achieving Peaceful, Safe and Secure Societies
8. Strengthening the Means and Frameworks for the Implementation of the SDGs

In addition, the SDGs Action Plan 2019 for working on the priority issues specified the following three pillars, and concrete measures are taken.

5. Promotion of Society 5.0 linked to SDGs
6. SDGs-driven regional innovation and fostering robust, attractive communities that are friendly to the environment

• Empowerment of the next generation and women as SDGs agents

7. Practical initiatives for the SDGs carried out by Japanese local governments

Japanese local governments also play an important role in promoting the SDGs. Local governments play a role not only in regional revitalization but also in terms of society, economy and environment in local communities. Local governments are expected to be the engine of promotion of the SDGs in local communities.

The fact that the SDGs are common goals adopted by the United Nations in 2015 and that the central government carries out a national policy by establishing the SDGs Promotion Headquarters may encourage local governments to regard them as a new keyword for a new challenge.

But Japanese local regions already have experiences and achievements of diverse actors working on social issues. The promotion of the SDGs by local governments is about urging new attempts by reorganizing the experiences and achievements of diverse actors working on social issues in the context of global common goals (SDGs) and facilitating more effective explanations. In addition, reorganizing past experiences and achievements in the context of the SDGs is also expected to drive further cooperation between the public and private sectors and collaboration through common goals based on the principles of participatory, inclusiveness and transparency and accountability.

In the next section, I introduce three local governments that won the Japan SDGs Award as specific examples of practical initiatives for the SDGs carried out by Japanese local governments.

The Japan SDGs Award was established in June 2017 to promote corporate and groups’ initiatives for achieving the SDGs, and the government’s SDGs Promotion Headquarters gives the award to companies and groups for their excellent initiatives in achieving the SDGs. The first (December 2017) and second (December 2018) awards were announced by the government. In the 1st Japan SDGs Award (12 organizations were selected from among 282 companies and groups that applied for the prize), Shimokawa-town, Hokkaido (Chief’s Award [by Prime Minister]), and Kitakyushu-city, Fukuoka (Special Award [SDGs Partnership Award]) were selected; in the 2nd Japan SDGs Award (15 organizations were selected from among 247 companies and groups that applied for the prize), Osaki-town, Kagoshima (Deputy-chiefs’ Award [by Chief Cabinet Secretary]) was selected (Fig. 3).

Shimokawa-town, the winner of the Chief’s Award (by Prime Minister) at the 1st Japan SDGs Award, worked on integrated problem-solving for about twenty years in terms of economy, society and environment as universality, one of the characteristics of the SDGs (Fig. 4).

The area of Shimokawa-town is 644.2 km², almost the same as that of the 23 wards of Tokyo, and 88% of the land is forest. The practical initiatives for the SDGs in Shimokawa-town are characterized by the thorough use of these forest resources.

In 2001, Shimokawa-town established a study society called “the Shimokawa Industrial Cluster Research Group,” which is dedicated to considering ways of using forest resources, and embarked on sustainable community development as a result of the harmony between the economy, society and environment. The town has continued to consider how to create a highly sustainable community by making good use of a variety of resources, including forest resources, and to put ideas into action.

In 2007, the town specified the realization of a sustainable local community in the Shimokawa-town Basic Autonomy Ordinance, at the top of the local government’s ordinances. In addition, the town was designated as an “Environmental Model City” that drives synergetic effects through the economy and environment in 2008 and as an “Environmental Future City” that drives synergetic effects through the economy, environment and society in 2011. The town has continued to undertake further activities.

More specifically, Shimokawa-town has taken an integrated approach to stimulate interactions and virtuous cycles between (1) building a comprehensive forestry (economy), (2) regional energy self-sufficiency and low carbonization (environment) and (3) creating a society for dealing with ultra-population aging (society).

As a result, Shimokawa-town has produced good results, such as the easing of depopulation and the improvement of regional heat self-sufficiency through forest biomass energy. In addition, in 2018 the town formulated a comprehensive plan for the twelve years until 2030 as the local government’s top plan based on the ideas of the SDGs, and it is currently considering carrying out projects for realizing the plan with diverse actors (Tamamura/Yokota, 2018-06-04).

The practical initiatives for the SDGs in Kitakyushu-city, which won the Special Award (SDGs Partnership Award) in the 1st Japan SDGs Award, have produced synergetic effects with activities for international cooperation and the achievement of a low-carbon society, based on practices that make good use of locally fostered civil capacity and technical skills. The reason why Kitakyushu-city was selected as the Special Award winner was that the city moved ahead of the times in the SDGs that the world aims to achieve (Fig. 5).

Originally, Kitakyushu-city developed as one of the four major industrial areas in Japan. In the 1960s, the city was affected by serious air and water pollution amid environmental pollution. Mothers who were concerned about the health of their children were the first to rise up regarding measures against environmental pollution. The resident movement and media reports helped raise public awareness of environmental pollution and urged companies and public administrators to strengthen measures against environmental pollution. The environment was rapidly improved through initiatives based on unity between citizens, companies, research institutes and public administrators, and Kitakyushu-city came to be introduced both in Japan and abroad as a miraculous city that achieved environmental reproduction in the 1980s.

Kitakyushu-city has also applied these locally fostered skills and experiences to attempts to solve environmental pollution in developing countries, including those in Asia. In addition, the city has also worked on maintaining and forming regional communities in a city where population aging is progressing the most rapidly of ordinance-designated cities.

Kitakyushu-city was designated as an Environmental Future City in December 2011 and has carried out initiatives as an Environmental Future City based on the practice of creating a city with harmony between the environment, society and economy. The SDGs were first presented in 2015. Kitakyushu-city carries out its current initiatives regarding the SDGs based on the citizens’ power of each citizen’s spontaneous practices to create a better society on their own and the local accumulation of manufacturing skills (Tamamura/Yokota, 2018-04-16).

Osaki-town, which was awarded the Deputy-chiefs’ Award (by Chief Cabinet Secretary) in the 2nd Japan SDGs Award, is a local government that recorded Japan’s best garbage recycling rates (general waste) for twelve straight years (as of March 2019).

Osaki-town implements a citizen participation-based project of sustainably recycling general waste by separating and sorting twenty-seven items, a project of forming cross-cultural communities with elderly people and settled foreigners through communication by the separation and sorting of garbage and a project of fostering environmental and global human resources using the concept of recycling. Osaki-town was awarded the Award in recognition of its idea of reconsidering these initiatives from the viewpoint of each goal of the SDGs and achieving a “Leave no one behind” society in terms of the economy, society and environment with the aim of creating a regional cycle symbiosis zone (Fig. 6).

Osaki-town, with a population of about 13,000, which is located on the Osumi Peninsula, Kagoshima Prefecture, enjoyed a recycling rate of 82.0% (2017) while the Japanese nationwide average recycling rate was 20.3%. Originally, garbage was only separated and sorted into burnable and non-burnable garbage in Japan. The nationwide recycling rate was just 4.5% in 1989. The nationwide average recycling rate rose to 20.3% in 2007 and has subsequently leveled off at around 20%. Meanwhile, Osaki-town’s recycling rate stood at 0.8% in 1998 (the nationwide average recycling rate was 12.1% at that time). The recycling rate gradually increased, however, posting 54.3% in 2002 and reaching 80% in 2006, when it set a national record. The town has since maintained this level.

Taking out garbage is part of residents’ lives, and citizens’ activity is indispensable to recycling. No matter how hard the local government may work as a leading proponent of recycling, it is impossible to promote recycling unless every single resident takes actions in their daily lives. Osaki-town has continued to carry out practical regional initiatives based on such resident activities and the collaboration and cooperation between local administration and companies (a recycling center and garbage collectors).

Behind this is the fact that Osaki-town chose to advance recycling based on resident cooperation and prolong the life of a reclaimed garbage disposal facility instead of building a garbage incineration facility. As a result, the town was able to promote the comprehensive recycling of garbage. This enabled the reclaimed garbage disposal facility, which would have been filled to the brim within the remaining few years, to be used for forty more years. Osaki-town can also restrict its garbage disposal costs to about half of those of other local governments of the same size. The town can now allocate the sources of revenue secured in this way to other administrative services.

This is how Osaki-town produces financial effects through recycling. In addition, the town gains an annual profit on a sale of about eight million yen from resources collected from every part of it and uses some of the resources to construct the framework of scholarships for all applicants in collaboration with Kagoshima Sougo Shinkin Bank. Furthermore, Osaki-town also undertakes recycling operations consigned from other local governments and has successfully created about four jobs.

In addition, Osaki-town named the recycling system that it created the “Osaki System” and has exported the system to foreign countries.

Osaki-town constructed a kind of ecosystem involving the synergetic effects of the recycling of resources and building a social system (Tamamura/Yokota, 2018-04-23).

8. Japanese local governments’ promoting the SDGs by making comprehensive plans

To conclude this paper, in this last section I note the linkage with making comprehensive plans as suggestions for Japanese local governments’ promoting the SDGs.

The administration of local governments is conducted based on a wide range of plans. Local governments handle PDCA cycles by preparing a variety of plans, such as area-by-area plans and individual plans, as well as comprehensive plans that most local governments place at the top of their policy agendas. It is necessary to examine whether all these plans are necessary. Because public administrators need to work based on reasons, however, they tend to draw up a range of plans.

There are gaps depending on the size of local governments and how their plans were drawn up. According to a fact-finding survey of area-by-area plans (individual plans), however, there are about 30 to 90 plans overall. Even if each area-by-area plan regards comprehensive plans at the top, the annual deadlines for plans and the timing of revisions of plans vary, and how local residents are involved in them and how the plans are evaluated also vary. It is often difficult to link the plans to each other.

Each plan is optimized to produce results individually, but it is not designed to be linked to other plans. That is why the entire local government is likely to see low productivity of outcomes relative to inputs.

Local governments are expected to increase the linkage between plans, get rid of duplications and reduce the burden on public officials and local citizens by making plans comprehensive, such as organizing area-by-area plans so that they will be linked to comprehensive plans and ensuring that the details of the plans, the methods of evaluating the plans, the annual deadlines for the plans and the timing of the revisions of the plans are consistent.

This method of making plans comprehensive is also important when local governments pursue the SDGs. As shown by the 17 goals and 169 targets, the SDGs target a broad range of areas. In promoting activities for the SDGs, local governments can draw up a clear policy and take actions by incorporating the SDGs into some plan. In doing so, it is also important to pay attention to making plans comprehensive with a focus on promoting plans in accordance with the framework of comprehensive plans.

The framework of ordinances as well as the framework of plans can also be an important factor in conducting regional practices continuously.

Some local governments establish basic autonomy ordinances and basic community development ordinances at the top of the framework of ordinances. But to regard comprehensive plans at the top of local governments’ plans in those ordinances ranked at the top of the framework of ordinances and in ordinances for basic philosophies about the administrative management of local governments, to reflect the concepts behind the SDGs in plans linked to comprehensive plans and to place the SDGs at the core of community development in the form of philosophical ordinances can also be factors that help local governments promote the SDGs (Morita/Tamamura, 2019-03-25).

References:

Tamamura Masatoshi, “Learning from local governments’ practices for SDGs and their global strategy: practice of governing local society in cooperation with industry-government-academia-finance-labor-journalism group,” Chiho Gyosei, JIJI Press, 2018-04-16

Tamamura Masatoshi and Yokota Koichi, “SDGs encourage further changes on sustainable local society: Shimokawa-town’s efforts for generating synergy of harmonizing of economy, environment and society by full usage of forest resources,” Chiho Gyosei, JIJI Press, 2018-04-16

Tamamura Masatoshi and Yokota Koichi, “An attempt regarding the SDGs as a strategy for producing global and local synergetic effects: Kitakyushu-city continues its attempt based on the collaboration between the public and private sectors, making good use of the citizens’ power and technical skills,” Chiho Gyosei, JIJI Press, 2018-04-16

Tamamura Masatoshi and Yokota Koichi, “Creating a sustainable system with the power of a regional community (first volume): An ecosystem created by the collaborative effort of Osaki-town, which recorded the best national recycling rates for 11 straight years,” Chiho Gyosei, JIJI Press, 2018 04-23

Morita Akiyo and Tamamura Masatoshi, “The SDGs promoted by local governments that constructed an integrated system: Focal points of constructing a promotion system suggested by a local government’s SDGs model project (2018),” Chiho Gyosei, JIJI Press, 2019-03-25

Translated from “Tokushu: 2 SDGs Jitsugen ni mukete—SDGs no tokusei to jichitai deno jissen (Special Feature 2: For the realization of the SDGs—The characteristics of the SDGs and the practices of local governments),” THE TOSHI MONDAI (Municipal Problems), July 2019, pp. 40-50. (Courtesy of The Tokyo Institute for Municipal Research) [October 2019]

Keywords

• Tamamura Masatoshi
• MDGs
• SDGs
• participatory
• inclusiveness
• transparency
• accountability
• Shimokawa-town
• Kitakyushu-city
• Osaki-town
• Environmental Model City
• Future City

Cloud system supports the employment environment for seniors

Prof. Hirose Michitaka

Japan is likely to see the arrival of the 100-year life era. If a person retires at the age of 65, the pension revenue for the remaining thirty-five years would be insufficient. Securing living expenses until the end of life and the employment of seniors are huge issues. In addition, if the experience, knowledge and skills of active and healthy seniors can be put to good use, they can be used as a new driving force in society.

Based on this idea, projects for developing and manufacturing self-driving vehicles and robots have been implemented since 2011 with support from the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST). One of those projects is Senior Cloud, our focus. Senior Cloud is a joint project between the University of Tokyo and IBM Japan Ltd, based on information technology for the employment of active and healthy seniors.

Currently, many seniors want to work to earn income or serve society even with low wages, but it is difficult for them to work every day. In addition, seniors have a wide range of skills and experience, such as English ability, knowledge of accounting and procuring parts and components from overseas. Ironically, those skills and experiences work against seniors in some cases because they cannot be used for other purposes and do not meet job requirements, leaving them unemployed. These seniors have difficulty meeting employers’ requirements and cannot find jobs that meet their needs. Senior Cloud started with the idea of providing IT support to an environment in which seniors can work more easily and comfortably. In particular, we proposed a new kind of employment called mosaic-type working styles based on past research.

Mosaic-type working styles

The idea of mosaic-type working styles is about securing one person’s worth of workforce by breaking the workforce into elements such as convenient hours and skills, temporarily dividing them into mosaics and reorganizing them on the computer to meet employers’ needs. It requires management to reassemble the senior workforce broken into mosaics and create one person’s worth of workforce. For one person, there would be a high cost per hour to complete this complicated task. But digital media can do it even more easily. There are three types of Mosaic-type working styles: Time-Mosaic, Skill-Mosaic and Space-Mosaic.

Source: Role of Advanded ICT for Hyper Aged Society, Prof. Hirose Michitaka http://www.glafs.u-tokyo.ac.jp/iaru2016/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/01/2_DrHirose_web.pdf

First, with regard to Time-Mosaic, as a simple example, one senior who can only work on Monday and Tuesday could be combined with another senior who can work through Wednesday to Friday, which then will be worth a single person’s full-time labor. A detailed working shift system is created using a computer to schedule for three or more people, not two, for one person’s worth of workforce. Since this method is intended to join a workforce broken into mosaics by hour, it is called Time-Mosaic.

Second, Skill-Mosaic is the method of breaking down seniors’ skills and techniques into mosaics and facilitating to match with employers’ needs. For example, if Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) needs human resources who are familiar with techniques for procuring parts from overseas to help a farmer to obtain inexpensive farming tools and equipment, it is difficult to find someone with all the skills involved who is, experienced in a job related to agriculture. The possibility is also low that someone who has experience and skills with importing medical equipment from overseas at a trading company will reach out to JA looking for a similar job for their second careers. Delving deeper, there is a greater possibility for matching between agriculture and machinery import. Take language skills as an example. Although it is rare to find someone who is proficient in English, Chinese and Swahili, it is easier to find three different people who are proficient in English, Chinese and Swahili. Similarly, it may be difficult to find a person who is proficient in English, capable  to managing a company and also good at music, but there is a higher possibility of finding a person who is proficient in English, a person who is capable of managing a company, and a person who is good at music. Breaking down seniors’ skills and techniques into more specific knowledge and know-how reorganizes people according to subdivided skills on the Internet and forms one person’s worth of workforce according to users’ needs, similar to teamwork, and provides the workforce that meets employers’ needs.

Third, Space-Mosaic is about breaking down physical workspaces and places of residence for seniors who want to work into mosaics. For example, this method can address the workforce imbalance in which it is difficult to find a job or one that enables skills to be put to good use locally after retirement, but such jobs exist in Tokyo. Use of virtual reality based telepresence enables the matter of physical distance to be solved significantly. A video conference system with full use of quality sound and high-resolution pictures overcomes spatial boundaries easily. In addition, even the elderly who cannot go out can work as long as they wish.

To meet the needs of companies that consider stably employing human resources with diverse and advanced skills, it is necessary to appropriately combine Time-Mosaic, Skill-Mosaic and Space-Mosaic. Bringing together multiple seniors through a network makes the Virtual Worker X similar to an avatar molded into a workforce.

Source: Role of Advanded ICT for Hyper Aged Society, Prof. Hirose Michitaka http://www.glafs.u-tokyo.ac.jp/iaru2016/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/01/2_DrHirose_web.pdf

Senior Cloud has implications involving the two English words crowd and cloud. Even if seniors have difficulty working as individuals in the real world, we hope to build a system for gathering a crowd of seniors on a cloud of information, giving them features such as avatars and the opportunity to work actively.

Human-resources scout aims at high-precision matching

Tools to materialize mosaic-type working styles are being narrowed down to the following.

One is a human-resources search system called Human-resources Scout (in Japanese Jinzai Scouter). Jobs to facilitate career matching for retired seniors in line with corporate requests already exist. The most significant point of these jobs is the advanced analytical capacity based on the experience of professional consultants who handle the matching operations. These consultants have acquired implicit skills of matching human resources to corporate culture as well as for examining whether seniors have techniques and skills that companies want.

Consultants with advanced matching skills are essential for companies handling matching operations to expand their operations. However, human resources are limited so computers and artificial intelligence (AI) that automate human resource matching are in demand. Therefore, making AI learn to express and visualize the sense that professional matching consultants have acquired and incorporate it into the search process is necessary. In addition, a handful of excellent human resources are in great demand. The range of human resources and matching operations must be expanded. It is particularly necessary to secure a broader range of human resources using computers and AI.

As mentioned above, a search for a job procuring farming tools and equipment using the keyword “agriculture” will yield no hits. However, there are hits with the keyword “machinery import,” which achieves high-precision matching by doing this work on a more advanced level. We conducted an experiment and evaluation of this human resources scout jointly with Circulation Inc., a human resource agency dedicated to supporting the employment of senior executives.

GBER boosts seniors’ social participation

The other tool is Gathering Brisk Elderly in the Region (GBER), a matching platform for the recruiting requirements of seniors and regions.

By answering questions asked by the GBER system, advanced schedules and work styles for desired jobs, details of work and areas, techniques and skills of interest are registered. Based on the answers to these questions, the system converts personal characteristics into vectors, such as office work vector, manual labor vector, liking children vector, enjoying contact with people vector, and wanting to be involved in something artistic vector. Meanwhile, for recruiting information, the system classifies the degree of importance by personal feature, such as sales, loading and unloading baggage, and converts them into vectors. If the vectors of both sides are close, the system recommends job offers that are more likely to draw users’ interest. This is how the system is designed to facilitate higher-accuracy matching.

GBER also encourages seniors’ social participation through life-fulfilling employment, including volunteer activities and personal interest activities around their places of residence, and lifelong learning. Life-fulfilling employment is basically about working on what seniors like, with a certain level of matching. GBER was developed for such comparatively light matching.

GBER also updates the vectors of the characteristics of seniors if they decline job offers several times in a row, although they are offered jobs that suit their characteristics. For example, suppose that a senior registers as not hoping to earn much money because they like children. Although they are offered jobs that meet those requirements, they decline those offers many times. In such a case, the information about liking children will be updated. GBER decides that they really do not like children very much. GBER facilitates more feasible matching by correcting preferences and aptitude (lack of aptitude) based on seniors’ self-assessment in accordance with reality.

For GBER, Second Life Factory, a company which conducts investigations and research on seniors’ employment, health, sense of fulfillment in life and security, continues a demonstration field experiment in Kashiwa City, Chiba Prefecture. In the field experiment, seniors actually get jobs through GBER. Currently, this field experiment is in the demonstration stage and GBER has mainly been offering jobs of mowing the lawn, and pruning, and trimming garden trees. GBER is expected to operate a project in a town and it is hoped that this experiment will be the first step toward its implementation.

We provided a tester to Kyushu Railway Company (JR Kyushu), which showed an interest in GBER as a matching tool for finding information for reemployment of retired seniors. The company has already conducted two in-house demonstration experiments.

GBER’s demonstration experiments produced unexpected by-products. Repeated updates of initial registered requirements in accordance with reality, led to the profiling of registered seniors. For example, a senior who initially thought that they liked children turned out to really like jobs related to art. As seniors repeatedly update registration requirements, orientation and characteristics that they were initially unaware of themselves are visualized.

Life-fulfilling employment must be about seniors doing what they like and what agrees with them. In this sense, it is important for seniors to know how they really are. Seniors can also get an ideal image of how they want to be in the future by looking at their own profiling. If these experiments continue, a new industry and educational industries for seniors to change their vector may be created. Altough this topic is not included in the current Senior Cloud/Crowd project, the process seems to lead seniors to find fulfillment in life.

IT designs a new pattern of employment

In an age in which seniors have one third of their lives remaining after mandatory retirement, the conventional life model that retirement life is the rest of a senior’s life no longer works. So far there is no system that helps seniors pass the years from retirement to death. Now is the time to change the life model itself.

Currently, seniors have only a few choices. Some people who used to be division directors or in similar positions in large corporations get executive-class positions in small companies after retirement and earn higher income than during their years of service. Otherwise they can only get jobs that do not require advanced skills, such as mowing the lawn. The senior employment issue has focused on discussing legislation until today, but it is necessary to consider the issue from a technical point of view. It may be possible to solve problems that remain unsolved, by using IT. For example, there is an idea of setting different fares between the rush hours and the idle hours to ease the morning rush. As long as people work, it is nonsensical to work on such a complicated fare system. However, if you introduce digital payment, such a system can easily be achieved. If a new work style such as Senior Cloud/Crowd becomes the norm, companies may consider jobs that are not recognized as such now, and employ seniors from a broader point of view.

It is believed that it will bring great change to the employment system itself, including the one for seniors. For example, we may see the work style of retiring at the age of 50 and advancing into a new world become a common work style, not the approach of prolonging the mandatory retirement age. Also consider the work style of working as a full-time worker in the first stage of life, building the foundations of life before retiring early and, in the second stage of life, devoting yourself to a job you like or to something through which you can fulfill your social mission before entering the next stage of life and working as a part-timer, gradually fading away from the scene as your physical strength begins to decline. If such an employment model were established, it would totally change life in Japan.

Anyway, the method of forming a new industry amid a super-aging society and how to live for the long senior years until the age of 100 are inseparable. I wonder if a one-stop service window for seniors to reserve future seats will be created in the near future, similar to the services of the JR Ticket Office called “Midori-no-madoguchi.” I think that a system that is being studied by Senior Cloud/Crowd has a significant possibility of becoming such a window.

Note: This article is an edited transcript of an interview with Professor Hirose Michitaka.

Translated from “Tokushu ‘Teinen shometsu—Jinsei 100 nen wo do hatarakunoka’: IT ga kaeru!? Shinia no shuro kankyo (Special Feature: The Disappearance of Retirement—How to Work in 100 Years of Life: IT Changes in the Employment Environment for Seniors),” Chuokoron, July 2019, pp. 44-51. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [November 2019]

Keywords

• Hirose Michitaka
• 100-year lifetime
• Senior Cloud/Crowd
• mosaic-type working styles
• Human-resources Scout
• Gathering Brisk Elderly in the Region (GBER)
• Second Life Factory

Residential participation: benefits and problems

——Please tell us how future design came to be introduced to Yahaba Town in Iwate Prefecture.

Yoshioka Ritsuji, Director, Yahaba Town, Iwate Prefecture

Yoshioka Ritsuji: In recent years, how to maintain worn out water supply infrastructure has become a significant issue for the whole of Japan. Yahaba Town is no different, so we started a residents participation workshop to first learn about residents’ needs and also to communicate that the town office is aware of the issue. As a result of this, we learned that most residents take safe water for granted and want water charges to be as low as possible. But going into the future, we do not know if today’s water rates can keep providing safe water. So that they’d understand the actual situation we thought we’d expand the scope of the workshop. By the end of that, some residents said they thought it would be better to raise water charges. Water supply operations have an extremely long timescale and you can’t do infrastructure work without thinking 100 years into the future. The residents of Yahaba thought about the time of their children and grandchildren and actually suggested we raise water rates.

This initiative was covered by the NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) TV program Today’s Close-up on October 16, 2014. Then, in 2015 we were awarded the grand prize at the JWWA (Japan
Water Works Association) Water Innovation Awards. When Professor Hara saw the program he
phoned me up.

Hara Keishiro, Professor, Osaka University

Hara Keishiro: From around 2012, we held workshops on future design at Osaka University, together with Prof. Saijo Tatsuyoshi and other researchers [See “Future Design,” Discuss Japan, No. 51]. Although we researchers were moving ahead with discussions on a frame of reference for conceptualizing and researching future design, at the time future design still hadn’t been put into actual practice in society. That was when I learned about the project in Yahaba Town. I realized that Yahaba Town was aiming at something very close to the direction of our research and I got in touch. Even though I called him without any warning, Mr. Yoshioka listened very carefully and we ended up doing joint research.

Yoshioka: Residents participation was producing results, but at the same time, I felt we’d reached the limits of the residents participation method. Residents themselves had proposed raising charges, saying: “We won’t oppose adding an extra 200 yen to water charges to renew worn out pipes.” That was a big change in attitude, but the consensus-produced 200 yen figure was pretty far from a solution to the issue. Even when we asked them to think about the future, at the end of the day, they were limited by what was acceptable at the present time.

Also, it took about four years and a half to reach the point where they made suggestions. I was wondering whether, within a different frame of reference, they might be able to think about the future in a slightly shorter space of time. I was also thinking hard about how to get past a situation where residents were making unfortunate choices because they didn’t properly understand current realities. I believed that was a big issue affecting Japan as a whole, not just water supply.

——What is the difference between residents participation and future design?

Hara: The participation of residents is important to future design, but that’s not all there is to future design. The key point to future design is how it provides a frame of reference from which to think about the nature of the present from the future. For example, when there is a choice between A and B, while one might choose A from the perspective of the present generation, if you put yourself in the shoes of a future generation and consider the choice from their perspective and interests, B might become the optimal solution. In short, within a frame of reference that considers the happiness of both present and future people, rather than making shortsighted decisions, we can invest in our future, take on temporary burdens, and make the best decisions for the future.

Future design is nothing more than a frame of reference to think about the present from the future. Within that frame of reference, the subjects that consider practical measures and ideas are simply residents in regional communities.

Also, as we implemented future design in various ways, we realized that it wasn’t just applicable to the topic of water supply, but various other fields, such as rebuilding the official town buildings, provision of infrastructure, and energy issues.

Initial implementation

——How did you go about bringing in future design?

Yoshioka: Yahaba Town first introduced future design in 2015 when it created a regional revitalization strategy titled the “Comprehensive Strategy for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy.” We made our goal the town in 2060 and, based on that, formulated measures for things we should do over the next five years.

Hara: At that time just under thirty people took part, who we divided into four groups. These consisted of two groups who participated in the discussion as representatives of 2060 residents, i.e. imaginary future generation groups, and two present generation groups. All the groups discussed the vision for the town in 2060 and the policies over the next five years needed to achieve that. There were five workshops in total, with a consensus-building session during the last one. Up to that point, the four groups held separate discussions and worked out a policy proposal.

For example, regarding the issue of increasing town bus usage rates, the present generation group produced many suggestions to solve problems that were conceived within a present-day frame of reference, such as changing bus routes or making difficult bus stop names easier to understand. That way of thinking deals with present problems and unmet needs, then pictures the future beyond that.

When we make future plans in everyday life, present problems loom large in our minds, so we first need to get over that. For that reason, those solutions depend on the individual. This kind of thinking seems at first glance an effective way to provide immediate solutions, but there is a tendency towards shortsighted suggestions.

The first session of Future Design was held at Yahaba Town in 2015.
Photo: Courtesy of Hara Keishiro, Osaka University

On the other hand, those in the future generation groups gave their opinions as representatives of 2060 people, having imagined a time warp where they were the same age but living in 2060. When they did, a number of extremely creative and integrated ideas emerged. In Yahaba town there is a mountain called Nanshozan that Miyazawa Kenji (1896–1933) imagined in his novel Night on the Galactic Railroad. The group made a concrete and persuasive proposal for an extremely creative transport plan. This was to build a monorail that ran in a loop starting from the mountain. Alongside this, there were many proposals that the present generation group didn’t come up with, such as a wellness town concept that combined the “sixth industrialization” of health and agriculture. Notably, these proposals were conceived as a way to use the region’s advantages, such as local resources in the town, culture and environment, and the links between people. A completely different set of ideas emerged when groups thought both about the happiness of future people and the happiness of current residents.

——What particular statements stuck in your mind?

Yoshioka: One person said, “Won’t cars be flying in the sky in 2060?” At first everyone was taken aback, but by chance there was someone from an automobile research group present. He said, “Yes, that’s possible,” and participants realized how much they only imagine things within the frame of reference of the present day. Because of that, I think everyone started to produce some very unconstrained ideas.

Hara: The four groups held their discussions separately, but then in the fifth and last workshop the present generation groups and the imaginary future generations groups met for the first time and there was a consensus-building session. Since they’d proposed completely different ideas, it seems both sides were initially quite confused. For example, the present generation group proposed an idea: making medical treatment for children free in order to increase the town’s population. But in response to that, one woman from the future generations group raised a question, saying: “I have a child myself, so I’m attracted by that suggestion. However, if making it free puts the town’s finances under pressure, it will be future generations who bear the burden. We must think of a different method, not one that is just good for the current generation.” I believe that really was an opinion that represented future generations.

At first, the present generation groups listened to the future generations groups’ creative plans and proposals with some suspicion, but when they heard the intentions behind those ideas, they realized what good suggestions they were. In that way, when the ten policy plans were finally agreed and laid out, the majority were from the future generations groups.

Incidentally, we also realized that the discussions of the future generations group tended to be sensitive to the ways in which technology might affect society in the future. They flexibly imagined possibilities for technological innovation and change to the social system, then were dynamic in designing proposals.

Also, it was notable that everyone in the imaginary future generations groups were enjoying their discussions. When people imagine the future from the present moment, the discussion starts from the problems visible now, so there’s a tendency for it be pessimistic. On the other hand, when they consider both the happiness of people in 2060 and people now, and as they consider paths that link the two times and the optimal solutions needed, it seems they can discover hope for the future. We also confirmed that, by considering issues from a point in the future, there was a tendency to prioritize things that were complicated and time-consuming, and decide that they needed to be implemented first.

Yoshioka: The people who experienced the future design discussions wanted to tell people around them what they’d been doing. I think that way of transmitting information is also very good.

Hara: Six months after the end of the Comprehensive Strategy for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy session, Nakagawa Yoshinori, an associate professor at Kochi University of Technology, conducted interviews with the people who had adeptly become “future residents.” As a result, we realized that those who’d experienced being a future generation gained a bird’s eye view of their current self and future generation self, and from that perspective thought about what was most important. What’s more, that bird’s eye perspective also continued after the sessions ended, so it seems that there is a lasting effect.

Preparation and trial and error strengthen the basis for discussion.

——Am I right that following 2015, in 2017 you put future design into practice for a second time?

Hara: In 2017, the future design method was used in discussions on the Total Management Plan for Public Facilities.

Twenty members were publicly recruited and brought together, then divided into four groups. This time, we had two groups discuss one theme and two more another theme: “public facilities” and “municipal housing.” The group members stayed the same and there were three monthly sessions. For this project, all participants considered the issues and gave opinions as the present generation the first time, and as the imaginary future generation the second time. Mentally, everyone switched their perspective between the current generation and the future generation.

When they considered the issues for the first time as the present generation, the discussion centered on how to maintain and manage public buildings, and requests to improve because of certain features that were lacking. In other words, the discussion was mainly about meeting desires. On the other hand, when they considered the issue for a second time as a future generation, they changed to making suggestions, such as how to maximize the quality of residents’ lives, including the elderly, or how to reuse existing public buildings. During the third and final session, we had them come up with ideas, either as the present generation or the future generation. When we did that, the condition for the discussion was that they present reasons why they suggested those ideas and give advice to future generations. Policies and ideas then started to emerge that placed importance on links with surrounding areas. In this way, even among the same participants, visions for the future and decision making changed.

Yoshioka: Generally, most municipal plans are put together based on resident requests. But when we consider that they are only produced from the perspective of the present generation, we might become concerned. Once you have experienced devising plans with future design, you don’t want to go back to the original frame of reference. Yahaba Town has now started to produce its “comprehensive plan” (the town’s main administrative plan) using future design.

Hara: We are now using future design as we work at an ongoing comprehensive plan together with local residents, and with the support of many researchers, including from Osaka University and the Kochi University of Technology. All the residents participating in the project evaluate past comprehensive plans from a bird’s eye perspective; then, from the perspective of future generations, design policies that the town should adopt in the future.

Support staff researchers cooperate closely with everyone at the town hall, and there is careful preparation to ensure the future design can perform effectively.

Yoshioka: Town staff who get advice from the professors constantly discuss how they can implement that on the ground. When preparatory documents for the discussions are ready, facilitators (who keep things running smoothly) and the graphic artists (who put visions into diagrams) set aside time to share information, conducting repeated and careful work between them.

Additionally, they spend a year studying the future design from the 2017 Total Management Plan for Public Facilities, and take part in study sessions to learn facilitation and graphic art skills. Rather than just doing as they are told, the staff get into that so deeply that they are tired from using their brains too much. That really supports Yahaba Town’s community development.

Hara: Around the time that we started putting future design into practice, it was usually the researchers who took the lead when it came to methodological elements. Recently however, many municipal staff have also started to come up with ideas of their own accord. It is also one of our goals as researchers for municipal staff and all the residents to become central players as future design is implemented. And a situation like that is gradually coming to be in Yahaba Town.

Yoshioka: Although the university professors have prepared an academic set of theories and give us feedback, we who work with the local administrators are not doing this as an experiment or for academic reasons. That’s why the municipal staff (who are supposed to be there as facilitators) sometimes get very enthusiastic and tell us about their ideas. Strictly speaking, they are exceeding the limits of their role, but that enthusiasm will be communicated to residents and the gap between them narrowed. I think that this process of trial and error by town staff and residents strengthens the basis for discussions.

How to actively involve all residents

——Has the size of Yahaba Town affected the success of future design there?

Yoshioka: Yahaba Town has a population of 27,000, so it is not too big a town, and in some ways is a convenient size. Staff can cross division and section boundaries, and communicate flexibly with residents, so there’s probably also an advantage to the town hall being small.

However, it seems that in Germany resident participation discussions are being introduced even in big cities. Thinking about it that way, I believe that even large local authorities could do it.

Hara: Alongside Yahaba Town, future design is starting to be implemented in various other places, such as Matsumoto City (Nagano Prefecture), Suita City (Osaka Prefecture) and Kyoto City. Suita City (population 370,000) introduced this method when devising its Basic Environmental Plan. I believe that it can be used in municipalities of all sizes, and for problems both big and small.

I also believe that future design could be used for industrial innovation. When issues are considered from a present day perspective, the questions become ones like “how can we develop existing technology?” or “how can we bring that to market?” so there is a tendency for thinking to be an extension of the present. Within a framework where matters are considered from the future however, there is potential to discuss technology development policy and innovation strategy from a completely different perspective.

Yoshioka: In Yahaba Town during a meeting this April, the Mayor declared Yahaba a Future Design Town and set up a Future Strategy Office to operate from this fiscal 2019. We are working at policy making with a 2060 perspective, thinking about what technology we can bring in to build the community in a different way to the past. The scary thing about a society with a decreasing population is that elderly people tend to close off their thinking, saying that their children or grandchildren can live in the big city, or that it’s enough for them to just keep on living as they are. It all becomes someone else’s problem and they lose interest. When that happens, the town will only decline.

It’s my opinion that robust community building needs more chances for as many people as possible to participate, and for the town to become one where all the residents are actively involved. I think future design is an excellent way to do that.

Translated from “Mirai no shakai wo sozosuru: 40 nen-go no jumin to tsukuru Iwate-ken Yahaba-cho no sosei senryaku (Creating a “Future” Society: Iwate Prefecture’s Yahaba Town: creating a revitalization strategy with residents from 40 years in the future),” Chuokoron, October 2019, pp. 136-143. (Courtesy of Chuo Koron Shinsha) [November 2019]

Keywords

• Yoshioka Ritsuji
• Yahaba Town
• Hara Keishiro
• Osaka University
• water infrastructure
• public facilities
• residents participation
• future design
• “future residents”
• industrial innovation
• Japan Water Works Association
• Water Innovation Awards
• Matsumoto City
• Suita City
• Kyoto City